«At the beginning of the second term the president recognised that he had to both take domestic action to have credibility but also to begin bilateral negotiations with China to actually bend down
the global emissions curve,» said Paul Bledsoe, a climate change official under Bill Clinton.
Changing this situation requires meaningful actions that will bend
the global emissions curve into decline.
And independent analysis shows that these targets will significantly bend down
the global emissions curve, limiting global temperature rise to 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, compared to 4.1 to 4.8 degrees that would happen without action.
Not exact matches
In time,
global greenhouse gas
emissions will be slowed and stabilized, forcing the CO2
curve to bend downward to acceptable permanent levels, simply because there is no other choice.
Eventually, by shaving away the two tails of the
global development and
emissions curve, while also aggressively pushing for efficiency and new energy choices among the
global middle class, a happy medium with far lower
emissions could be achieved, according to the paper.
Lord Monckton explained via e-mail that he based the IPCC prediction
curves «on the IPCC's A2 scenario, which comes closest to actual
global CO2
emissions at present» (2).
«Christiana Figueres, a former United Nations climate chief, predicts that we have only three years left to «bend the [carbon]
emissions curve downward» and mitigate a series of runaway
global catastrophes.»
Figure of 400 ppm calculated using fossil fuel
emissions from G. Marland et al., «Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2007), and land use change emissions from R. A. Houghton and J. L. Hackler, «Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land - Use Changes,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2002), with decay curve cited in J. Hansen et al., «Dangerous Human - Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,» Atmospheric Chemistry and Phys
emissions from G. Marland et al., «
Global, Regional, and National CO2
Emissions,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2007), and land use change emissions from R. A. Houghton and J. L. Hackler, «Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land - Use Changes,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2002), with decay curve cited in J. Hansen et al., «Dangerous Human - Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,» Atmospheric Chemistry and Phys
Emissions,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on
Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2007), and land use change
emissions from R. A. Houghton and J. L. Hackler, «Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land - Use Changes,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2002), with decay curve cited in J. Hansen et al., «Dangerous Human - Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,» Atmospheric Chemistry and Phys
emissions from R. A. Houghton and J. L. Hackler, «Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land - Use Changes,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on
Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2002), with decay
curve cited in J. Hansen et al., «Dangerous Human - Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,» Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.
The red
curve shows warming in the 19th century before there were significant CO2
emissions, so it weakens the case that
global warming is man - made.
We created a Lorenz
curve to represent the variation of GHG
emissions among countries using the CAIT dataset, and calculated the Gini index to measure inequity in GHG
emissions among countries, and the Robin hood index to measure how much of the total
global emissions would have to be redistributed to achieve equity among countries (see Supplementary Fig.
Instead, climate reality and natural climatic forces intruded - real world temperatures since 1988 resemble the cyan temperature
curve of «draconian»
emission cuts that Hansen's testimony implied would necessarily make
global warming safe by end of 2014.
However, if high - emitting nations take the «equity» and «fairness» requirement seriously, they will need to not only reduce ghg
emissions at very, very rapid rates, a conclusion that follows from the steepness of the remaining budget
curves alone, but also they will have to reduce their ghg
emissions much faster than poor developing nations and faster than the
global reductions
curves entailed only by the need to stay within a carbon budget.
«However, the quintessential challenges remain, namely bending down the
global Kyoto - GHG output
curve in the 2015 — 2020 window (further procrastination would render necessary reduction gradients too steep thereafter) and phasing out carbon dioxide
emissions completely by 2100.
Ellerman, A.D. and A. Decaux (1998), Analysis of Post-Kyoto CO2
Emissions Trading Using Marginal Abatement
Curves, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of
Global Change, Report No. 40, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
We are already not only bending the
curve of
emissions but actually already in a
global consensus about the inevitability of the major shift that will occur in this century.