Delaying the peak year even further to 2020 could necessitate
global emissions reduction rates of up to 9 % per year — i.e. reductions on an almost inconceivable scale, entailing technological feats and social sacrifices on a scale comparable to those of the Allied mobilization during the Second World War.26
Not exact matches
The sooner
global emissions start to fall, the lower the risk not only of major climatic disruption, but also of the economic disruption that could otherwise arise from the need for subsequent
reductions at historically unprecedented
rates, should near - term action remain inadequate.»
They considered scenarios of either unchecked greenhouse gas
emissions or a
global reduction in the
rate of
emissions growth.
Reductions in
emissions from deforestation, in particular in the Amazon, have made a major contribution to
global efforts to control
global warming; since 2005 the Amazon has seen its deforestation
rate drop 77 % below the historic average.
They've caused electricity to be far more expensive than it could and should be, caused
global GHG
emissions to be 10 - 20 % higher than it could have been and caused the
rate of
emissions reductions over the coming decades to be very much slower than it would be of not for their irrational, ideologically driven scare mongering.
Emissions reductions larger than about 80 %, relative to whatever peak global emissions rate may be reached, are required to approximately stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations for a century or so at any chosen target level (see Figure 3
Emissions reductions larger than about 80 %, relative to whatever peak
global emissions rate may be reached, are required to approximately stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations for a century or so at any chosen target level (see Figure 3
emissions rate may be reached, are required to approximately stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations for a century or so at any chosen target level (see Figure 3).»
If
global greenhouse gas
emissions peaked in 2010 the annual
emissions reduction rate necessary to stabilize atmospheric carbon at 450 ppm, the Stern Review suggests, would be 7 percent, with
emissions dropping by about 70 percent below 2005 levels by 2050.
The team calculates that if
emissions»
reductions began today, they would need to occur at the
rate of 6 percent per year (whereas if they had started in 2005, they would only have needed to be 3.5 percent per year) to keep the
global temperature within about 1 - 1.5 degrees Celsius of preindustrial levels.
However, a clear understanding of how national
emissions reductions commitments affect
global climate change impacts requires an understanding of complex relationships between atmospheric ghg concentrations, likely
global temperature changes in response to ghg atmospheric concentrations,
rates of ghg
emissions reductions over time and all of this requires making assumptions about how much CO2 from
emissions will remain in the atmosphere, how sensitive the
global climate change is to atmospheric ghg concentrations, and when the international community begins to get on a serious
emissions reduction pathway guided by equity considerations.
«The sooner
global emissions start to fall, the lower the risk not only of major climate disruption, but also of economic disruption that could otherwise arise from the need for subsequent
reductions at historically unprecedented
rates, should near - term action remain inadequate,» says another of the report's authors, Michael Grubb, professor of international energy and climate change policy at University College London's Institute of Sustainable Resources.
May 10 (UPI)-- A new model tracks oil and gas extraction
rates and how they impact the ability of major fossil fuel producers to meet
global emission reduction targets.
At 50 % participation
rate the cost penalty for the participants is 250 % to achieve a a given
global emissions reduction.
The IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment of climate change science concluded that large
reductions in the
emissions of greenhouse gases, principally CO2, are needed soon to slow the increase of atmospheric concentrations, and avoid reaching unacceptable levels.However, climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated;
global CO2
emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at
rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid.
However, if high - emitting nations take the «equity» and «fairness» requirement seriously, they will need to not only reduce ghg
emissions at very, very rapid
rates, a conclusion that follows from the steepness of the remaining budget curves alone, but also they will have to reduce their ghg
emissions much faster than poor developing nations and faster than the
global reductions curves entailed only by the need to stay within a carbon budget.
Even with optimistic assumption about the peak year for
global emissions and
rates of
emissions reductions thereafter, the best estimate is for warming to reach 4 °C in the 2070s or 2080s, well within the life - spans of children born today.
The actual amount of
emissions reductions that are needed between now and 2020 is somewhat of a moving target depending on the level of uncertainty that society is willing to accept that a dangerous warming limit will be exceeded, the most recent increases in ghg
emissions rates, and assumptions about when
global ghg
emissions peak before beginning rapid
reduction rates.
«Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the Earth's surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The
rate of rise of temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the
rates of change of temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any current climate; (5)
global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected
rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The
global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2
emissions (reducing
emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's
rate) and continue further
reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2
reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such
reductions in CO2
emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
Plan of action - CO2
emissions tax, deregulate low polluting technology and remove current barriers of new technology per usual pick and choose government interference, facilitate standards to coordinate national and international energy development, subsidize ultra low polluting power generators and fuel to poor countries, investment dollars awarded to highest
rate of return for CO2
emission reduction upon
global market,
rate tax expenditures and promising technology by independent accounting agency bonded to ensure loss of political and personal cronyism influence.
The 2007 IPCC report found that the cost of actions to stabilize concentrations of heat - trapping
emissions at a level that gives us a good chance of avoiding dangerous warming would amount to less than a 0.12 percent
reduction in average annual
global gross domestic product (GDP) growth
rate in 2050.
Emission
reductions larger than about 80 % relative to whatever peak
global emissions rate may be reached are required to approximately stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations for a century or so at any chosen target level.»
On this pathway,
global emissions peak in 2014; the fastest
rate of fossil CO2
reductions is 6.0 % per year, and for all GHGs combined, it is 6.1 %.
Fugitive methane
emissions from natural gas systems represent a significant source of
global warming pollution in the U.S.
Reductions in methane
emissions are urgently needed as part of the broader effort to slow the
rate of
global temperature rise.
«[under the NICE model] The optimal
rate of
emissions reduction is 6 percent in 2005, 14 percent in 2050, and 25 percent in 2100.14 This optimized path leads to a projected
global temperature increase from 2000 to 2100 of around 1.8 degrees C.»
Evaluating a 1 %
reduction in current
global emissions, benefits with a high discount
rate are greatest for
reductions of co-emitted products of incomplete combustion (PIC), followed by sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and then CO2, ammonia and methane.