Yet understanding how delay makes achieving the goals of preventing dangerous climate change extraordinarily more challenging also requires some knowledge about how increasing atmospheric concentrations affect
global emissions reductions pathways options.
Not exact matches
Emission pathways towards the long - term
global goal for
emission reductions require that
global GHG
emissions peak -LCB- between 2010 and 2013 -RCB--LCB- by 2015 -RCB--LCB- by 2020 at the latest -RCB--LCB- in the next 10 - 15 years -RCB--LCB- in the next 10 - 20 years -RCB- and decrease thereafter.
And we do so (see the Appendix) for a
global emergency
emissions reduction pathway that is stringent enough to provide a high probability of holding the 2ºC line.
This discussion has so far focused on
global emissions -
reduction pathways, but
global pathways can only tell us so much.
However, a clear understanding of how national
emissions reductions commitments affect
global climate change impacts requires an understanding of complex relationships between atmospheric ghg concentrations, likely
global temperature changes in response to ghg atmospheric concentrations, rates of ghg
emissions reductions over time and all of this requires making assumptions about how much CO2 from
emissions will remain in the atmosphere, how sensitive the
global climate change is to atmospheric ghg concentrations, and when the international community begins to get on a serious
emissions reduction pathway guided by equity considerations.
Scenario analysis on the implications of changing
emission tracks after 2020, from an insufficient
global deal on 2020
reductions, to 2 °C and 1.5 °C
pathways
IEA analysis shows that on a 2 degree climate
pathway, energy efficiency contributes nearly 40 % of
global emissions reductions through 2050, the largest share of any fuel.
The Swiss climate plan is in many ways a promising start to the
global INDC submission process, articulating a long - term
pathway for the country's
emissions reductions.
No US national climate change strategy makes any sense unless it is understood to implicitly be a position on the US fair share of a
global greenhouse gas
emissions reductions pathway capable of preventing dangerous climate change.
The following is one depiction of a carbon budget prepared by the
Global Commons Institute with three different reductions pathways that make different assumptions about when global ghg emissions
Global Commons Institute with three different
reductions pathways that make different assumptions about when
global ghg emissions
global ghg
emissions peak.
The lack of a «conceivable
pathway to reducing CO2 concentrations... on the timescales put forth by the Paris Agreement» is not improved by said Agreement's permitting «developing countries» (responsible for about 65 % of
global emissions) to prioritise «economic... development and poverty eradication» over CO2
reduction, merely encouraging them to «move over time towards...
emission reduction or limitation targets»: https://judithcurry.com/2016/08/16/cop21-developing-countries/
AR5 found the world has the means to limit
global warming and build a more prosperous and sustainable future, but
pathways to limit warming to 2ºC relative to pre-industrial levels would require substantial
emissions reductions over the next few decades.
On this
pathway,
global emissions peak in 2014; the fastest rate of fossil CO2
reductions is 6.0 % per year, and for all GHGs combined, it is 6.1 %.
Multi-gas
Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets, Climatic Change 75 (1): 151 - 194, estimates that this would require
global emission reductions of over 5 % per year, unless more CO2 was removed from the atmosphere later.
Any carbon
reduction pathway that limits temperature rise to 2 degrees C shows
global emissions peaking extremely soon and declining extremely quickly.