In the meantime, correctly predicting when the next hike will take place will require paying close attention to
global financial conditions along with domestic economic fault lines.
«These (risks) include the possibility of a sharp tightening
of global financial conditions, growing trade tensions, and geopolitical strains — while the outlook for oil prices remains subdued and highly uncertain,» the report said.
It also finds that
global financial conditions contribute to this synchronization, which suggests that policymakers should be alert to the possibility that shocks to house prices elsewhere may affect housing markets at home.
In the meantime,
global financial conditions remain highly accommodative, the Fed's latest move made sense, and we believe the U.S. economy will handle this policy transition quite well.
«At the same time, there are clear downside risks: political uncertainty, including in Europe; the sword of protectionism hanging over global trade; and
tighter global financial conditions that could trigger disruptive capital outflows from emerging and developing economies,» the former French finance minister said.
But AMRO said its outlook is not without risks as it warned of the potential impact of faster - than - expected monetary policy tightening
on global financial conditions, and escalation of global trade tensions, on capital flows and borrowing costs.
Given
what global financial conditions have been doing (and reading some chemical company transcripts), we are inclined to think that the global situation has gotten bad enough for the PBOC hawks to stay hooded when the local banks scream for looser credit.
In my humble opinion,
global financial conditions in the light of European instability will play a larger role in the Fed's decision to raise rates, which is why I maintain it will take a large number to give voice to those Fed voters wishing to raise rates.
It also finds that
global financial conditions contribute to this synchronization, which suggests that policymakers should be alert to the possibility that shocks to house prices elsewhere may affect housing markets at home.
In the days to come the Fed will have to prove that a new set of tools for managing interest rates will work as expected; see how higher U.S. rates affect domestic and
global financial conditions; and hope that weak world demand and commodity prices do not lead to an overall bout of deflation and force the Fed to reverse course.
Of critical importance is the contribution that a weaker dollar has made to
global financial conditions, which remain at their most accommodative since early 2014.
This correction was not unexpected considering euphoric equity markets and
global financial conditions that were among most accommodative on record (see, «The Case for Cash,» from mid-January).
Oil price volatility, trade tensions, geopolitical risk and a «sharp tightening of
global financial conditions» are just a few of the potential pitfalls that lie ahead.
Consequently, even as the Fed has now jacked up its overnight rate six times since it started hiking,
global financial conditions have remained exceptionally lax.
Yet an overshoot in market expectations of monetary tightening could cause a disruptive rise in the U.S. dollar and tighten
global financial conditions.
First would be an overshoot in expectations of monetary tightening leading to a sharp rise in the U.S. dollar, tightening
global financial conditions.
Meanwhile,
global financial conditions have become even more accommodative since July.
Widespread House Price Gains Have Accompanied Accommodative Financial Conditions (Diffusion Index of House Price Growth and
Global Financial Conditions)
Emerging markets have generally improving fundamentals, but could be vulnerable to sudden tightening of
global financial conditions.