Sentences with phrase «global greenhouse gas emission scenarios»

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The draft report by the U.S. Global Change Research Program says it is likely the world will forfeit its ability to meet «rapid emission reduction» scenarios needed to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations «within a few years.»

Global temperatures could rise dramatically in 2100 compared with current conditions (dark red areas) under some scenarios for global greenhouse gas emisGlobal temperatures could rise dramatically in 2100 compared with current conditions (dark red areas) under some scenarios for global greenhouse gas emisglobal greenhouse gas emissions.

Another graphic, circulated on Twitter by German broadcaster Deutsch Welle, shows how different cumulative, historic emissions look from the current scenario: China three years ago surpassed the United States as the global greenhouse gas emissions leader.

They considered scenarios of either unchecked greenhouse gas emissions or a global reduction in the rate of emissions growth.

To get a sense for how this probability, or risk of such a storm, will change in the future, he performed the same analysis, this time embedding the hurricane model within six global climate models, and running each model from the years 2081 to 2100, under a future scenario in which the world's climate changes as a result of unmitigated growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

Meehl and his colleagues used two sophisticated computer models of global climate to predict what would happen under various scenarios for greenhouse gas emission controls, taking into account the oceanic time lag.

Global rates of temperature change in high and declining greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Two global scenarios, one of low greenhouse - gas emissions and the other of medium emissions, were created for each model.

Methods: A global collaboration of scientists responded to a request from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and generated a set of four scenarios to represent future greenhouse gas emissions and land use change.

To derive the climate projections for this assessment, we employed 20 general circulation models to consider two scenarios of global carbon emissions: one where atmospheric greenhouse gases are stabilized by the end of the century and the other where it grows on its current path (the stabilization [RCP4.5] and business - as - usual [RCP8.5] emission scenarios, respectively).

These results and the emerging additional regions of highest climate change vulnerability under high emissions scenarios (Figures S7, S8, S9) suggest that global policies that mitigate greenhouse gas emissions will substantially reduce species» climate change vulnerability.

When talking to the media, some have been tempted to push beyond what the science supports — focusing on the high end of projections of global temperatures in 2100 or highlighting the scarier scenarios for emissions of greenhouse gases.

Unlike the scenarios developed by the IPCC and reported in Nakicenovic et al. (2000), which examined possible global futures and associated greenhouse - related emissions in the absence of measures designed to limit anthropogenic climate change, RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario and assumes that climate policies, in this instance the introduction of a set of global greenhouse gas emissions prices, are invoked to achieve the goal of limiting emissions and radiative forcing.

The IPCC TAR produced global temperature projections based on a number of possible greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from their Special Report on Emission Scenarioscenarios from their Special Report on Emission ScenariosScenarios (SRES).

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long - term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short - lived species, and land - use - land - cover which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m − 2 (approximately 650 ppm CO2 - equivalent) in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value.

If greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere were to stabilize in 2100 at levels projected in the B1 and A1B emission scenarios, a further increase in global average temperature of about 0.5 °C would still be expected around 2200.

However, current estimates of lake level changes are uncertain, even for continued increases in global greenhouse gas emissions (A2 scenario).

The emissions scenarios included business as usual (BAU) and three other scenarios (B, C, D) in which global human greenhouse gas emissions began slowing in the year 2000.

To counter this business - as - usual scenario, the Stern Review proposes a climate stabilization regime in which greenhouse gas emissions would peak by 2015 and then drop 1 percent per year after that, so as to stabilize at a 550 ppm CO2e (with a significant chance that the global average temperature increase would thereby be kept down to 3 °C).

«Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long - term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short - lived species, and land - use - land - cover which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 Watts per meter squared (W m - 2, approximately 650 ppm CO2 - equivalent) in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value.»

Hence, the Stern Review» sown preferred scenario, as indicated, is a 550 ppm target that would see global greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2015, with the emission cuts that followed at a rate of 1 percent per year.

Models predict that the same summertime temperatures that ranked among the top 5 % in 1950 — 1979 will occur at least 70 % of the time by 2035 — 2064 in the U.S. if global emissions of greenhouse gases grow at a moderate rate (as modeled under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario).

The energy trends envisioned in the New Policies Scenario imply that national commitments to reduce greenhouse - gas emissions, while expected to have some impact, are collectively inadequate to meet the Copenhagen Accord's overall goal of holding the global temperature increase to below 2 °C.

Research addressing this question relies on global climate model simulations based on a range of anticipated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios.

Wehner and his co-authors of Chapter 2 of the NCA, which looked at the physical basis for our understanding of climate change, considered seven different future scenarios (including four new ones), ranging from the «do nothing» option to a geoengineering option, which would require an as - yet uninvented technology to take CO2 out of the atmosphere on a global scale, to achieve net negative emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050.

«The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX - GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

Between its Second and Third Assessment Reports, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change elaborated long - term greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, in part to drive global ocean - atmosphere general circulation models, and ultimately to assess the urgency of action to prevent the risk of climatic change.

Many climate skeptics argue that the most likely scenario for global warming is that human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases will cause mild warming, a geographic mixture of winners and losers, and what problems arise can be met by adaptation.

Over the remainder of this century, aggressive and sustained greenhouse gas emission reductions by the United States and by other nations would be needed to reduce global emissions to a level consistent with the lower scenario (B1) analyzed in this assessment.15

In the experiment, greenhouse gas emissions in the coming century were assumed to follow a trajectory that climate modelers refer to as the A1B scenario, in which global economic growth is rapid and driven by a balanced portfolio of energy sources, including fossil fuels, renewables, and nuclear.

Topics include: Climate Forcing Agents and their Efficacy; Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks; Anthropogenic Climate Change; Extreme Events; Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Global Temperature Limits and Mitigation Scenarios; and Geoengineering.

Global greenhouse gas emissions under different scenarios and the emissions gap in 2030 (Source: The UNEP)

This suggests that IPCC projections of future global warming, which are based on various possible human greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, are reliable.

(11/06/2011) Global greenhouse gas emissions last year exceeded worst - case scenario predictions from just four years before, according to the US Department of Energy (DOE).

While some advocate for 100 % renewable scenarios, it is likely that cost - effective reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions will require a broad mix of technologies.

Meehl and his colleagues used two sophisticated computer models of global climate to predict what would happen under various scenarios for greenhouse gas emission controls, taking into account the oceanic time lag.

De Vries, H.J.M., J.G.J. Olivier, R.A. van den Wijngaart, G.J.J. Kreileman, and A.M.C. Toet, 1994: Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios.

These scenarios are characterized by 40 to 70 % global anthropogenic [greenhouse gas] emissions reductions by 2050 compared to 2010, and emissions levels near zero or below in 2100.

While these uncertainties prevent the establishment of a high - confidence, one - to - one linkage between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and global mean temperature increase, probabilistic analyses can assign a subjective probability of exceeding certain temperature thresholds for given emissions scenarios or concentration targets (e.g., Meinshausen, 2005; Harvey, 2007).

Using a global model based on the marginal abatement costs of 12 countries and regions, this paper estimates the contributions of the three Kyoto flexibility mechanisms to meet the total greenhouse gas emissions reductions required of Annex 1 countries under the three trading scenarios respectively.

Hansen's paper created global warming projections based on three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A, B, and C).

The IPCC report defines four timeline scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) plotting amounts of carbon burned and resulting global average temperatures, depending on when global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) peak and then decline.

The SRES scenarios were constructed to explore future developments in the global environment with special reference to greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emissions.

Paragrap 17 «Notes with concern that the estimated aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the intended nationally determined contributions do not fall within least - cost 2 ̊C scenarios but rather lead to a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in 2030, and also notes that much greater emission reduction efforts will be required than those associated with the intended nationally determined contributions in order to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 ̊C above pre-industrial levels by reducing emissions to 40 gigatonnes or to 1.5 ̊C above pre-industrial levels by reducing to a level to be identified in the special report referred to in paragraph 21 below;»

The rate of increase depends on whether global greenhouse gases follow a low or high emission scenario.

At this point, even the most optimistic scenarios of worldwide reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will not be enough to avoid significant global warming — and thus the concomitant set of climate impacts that will disrupt our way life — according to a study... Continue reading →

Working on a «best case scenario» of global carbon emissions reaching a zero level by the end of the century, the simulation designed by experts at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis and the University of Calgary, has concluded that recent rises in greenhouse gas emissions will nevertheless cause unstoppable effects to the global climate for the next 1,000 years.