Our original draft blog post noted that DK12 had effectively been «pre-bunked,» as several recent studies have reconciled
global heat content data with top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy imbalance measurements with no evidence of a long - term slowdown in global warming.
We at SkS appreciate that John Church was willing to join our team, that his colleague Neal White was willing to provide us with
their global heat content data set, and that their colleague and fellow oceanography expert Catia Domingues was willing to review our paper and provide valuable feedback to improve the paper.
Ultimately our paper shows that all three of the main conclusions in DK12 are faulty: the rate of OHC increase has not slowed in recent years, there is no evidence for «climate shifts» in
global heat content data, and the recent OHC data do not support the conclusion that the net climate feedback is negative or that climate sensitivity is low.
Not exact matches
However, the large - scale nature of
heat content variability, the similarity of the Levitus et al. (2005a) and the Ishii et al. (2006) analyses and new results showing a decrease in the
global heat content in a period with much better
data coverage (Lyman et al., 2006), gives confidence that there is substantial inter-decadal variability in
global ocean
heat content.
Even if ultimately there is real confidence in ocean
heat content data — i.e. the trends exceed the differences in
data handling — without understanding changes in reflected SW and emitted IR it remains impossible to understand the
global energy dynamic.
The objective of our study was to quantify the consistency of near -
global and regional integrals of ocean
heat content and steric sea level (from in situ temperature and salinity
data), total sea level (from satellite altimeter
data) and ocean mass (from satellite gravimetry
data) from an Argo perspective.
The
global amplitude (down to 300 m) is between 1E +22 and 3E +22 J, compared to ~ 4E +22 J for the increase in
heat content in the period 1955 - 2003 [note: there seems to be a discrepancy in units between the story of Levitus and the
data].
And yet, when you do trends of
global data you are averaging air temperatures over intervals where the
heat content is not continuous, and thus the trend that is the average temperature does not show the actual trend of the
heat content.
This makes perfect sense since there is little to no evidence of an anthropogenic
global warming effect on
global Ocean
Heat Content (OHC)
data.
Data from Church et al. (2011) recently updated this picture, showing that total
global heat content continues its steady climb upwards.
Several recent studies have also concluded that it is necessary to include
data from the deep ocean in order to reconcile
global heat content and the TOA energy imbalance, which DK12 failed to do.
DK12 used ocean
heat content (OHC)
data for the upper 700 meters of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate of OHC increase has slowed in recent years (the very short timeframe of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods of «climate shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC
data indicate that the net climate feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount of
global warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, including feedbacks) is low.
In the present study, satellite altimetric height and historically available in situ temperature
data were combined using the method developed by Willis et al. [2003], to produce
global estimates of upper ocean
heat content, thermosteric expansion, and temperature variability over the 10.5 - year period from the beginning of 1993 through mid-2003...
The bottom line is that all available ocean
heat content data show that the oceans and
global climate continue to build up
heat at a rapid pace, consistent with the
global energy imbalance observed by satellites.
This includes ocean
heat content (it is more or less), GISS, Hadley etc
global data — and includes raw
data and adjustment algorithms / codes.
The well below freezing surface winter temperatures of Northern high latitudes are such wildly variable almost non-correlated
data points which tell almost nothing of the real warming (i.e. increase in
heat content of the Earth system) but may affect in an unpredictable way the
global average surface temperature.
«A more accurate comparison of
global ocean / land energy imbalances would be GISS (since they use Arctic
data), and ocean
heat content down to 2000 meters.»
Unfortunately, we don't have good ocean
heat content data for this period, while the
data we do have —
global mean atmospheric surface temperature — is dominated by ocean oscillations.
Figure 3: Comparison of
Global Heat Content 0 - 700 meters layer vs. 0 - 2000 meters layer, from the National Oceanographic
Data Center.
In a paper, «
Heat Capacity, Time Constant, and Sensitivity of Earth's Climate System» soon to be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research (and discussed briefly at RealClimate a few weeks back), Stephen Schwartz of Brookhaven National Laboratory estimates climate sensitivity using observed 20th - century data on ocean heat content and global surface temperat
Heat Capacity, Time Constant, and Sensitivity of Earth's Climate System» soon to be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research (and discussed briefly at RealClimate a few weeks back), Stephen Schwartz of Brookhaven National Laboratory estimates climate sensitivity using observed 20th - century
data on ocean
heat content and global surface temperat
heat content and
global surface temperature.
A recently published estimate of Earth's
global warming trend is 0.63 ± 0.28 W / m2, as calculated from ocean
heat content anomaly
data spanning 1993 - 2008.
And the sea surface temperature and ocean
heat content data do not support the existence of a human - induced
global warming signal.
For more information, including a discussion of the natural warming of ocean
heat content data, refer to my illustrated essay «The Manmade
Global Warming Challenge» [42 MB].
As shown in the above linked essay, there is nothing in the ocean
heat content data or satellite - era sea surface temperature
data to indicate that manmade greenhouse gases have had any impact on the warming of the
global oceans.