As such I am extremely skeptical of goofy claims to know what
the global heat content of the ocean is to hundredths of a degree.
He is also correct that
global heat content of the ocean is a huge part of warming or the lack thereof, but his next statement is not entirely correct.
Also
global heat content of the ocean (which constitutes 85 % of the total warming) has continued to rise strongly in this period, and ongoing warming of the climate system as a whole is supported by a very wide range of observations, as reported in the peer - reviewed scientific literature.
Not exact matches
ocean system is faster than the
global average since the 1960s; there is a small but widespread increase in
heat content of the Arctic Oceanâ??
For as much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount
of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the deep
oceans and the change in the
global heat content (Figure 4).
With GRACE retrievals
of surface mass commencing in 2002 and ARGO - derived estimates
of global ocean heat content beginning a few years later, an era
of unprecedented diagnostic capabilities began.
In the Common Era before the 21st century, changes in
ocean heat content and in mountain glaciers were likely the main drivers
of global sea - level change.
However, lacking
global observations
of surface mass and
ocean heat content capable
of resolving year to year variations with sufficient accuracy, comprehensive diagnosis
of the events early in the altimetry record (e.g. such as determining the relative roles
of thermal expansion versus mass changes) has remained elusive.
Based on the linear trend, for the 0 to 3,000 m layer for the period 1961 to 2003 there has been an increase
of ocean heat content of approximately 14.2 ± 2.4 × 1022 J, corresponding to a
global ocean volume mean temperature increase
of 0.037 °C during this period.
However, the large - scale nature
of heat content variability, the similarity
of the Levitus et al. (2005a) and the Ishii et al. (2006) analyses and new results showing a decrease in the
global heat content in a period with much better data coverage (Lyman et al., 2006), gives confidence that there is substantial inter-decadal variability in
global ocean heat content.
A major feature
of Figure 5.1 is the relatively large increase in
global ocean heat content during 1969 to 1980 and a sharp decrease during 1980 to 1983.
Time series
of global annual
ocean heat content (1022 J) for the 0 to 700 m layer.
Gleckler, P.J., K.R. Sperber, and K. AchutaRao, 2006a: The annual cycle
of global ocean heat content: observed and simulated.
The estimated increase
of observed
global ocean heat content (over the depth range from 0 to 3000 meters) between the 1950s and 1990s is at least one order
of magnitude larger than the increase in
heat content of any other component.
The authors note that more than 85 %
of the
global heat uptake (Q) has gone into the
oceans, including increasing the
heat content of the deeper
oceans, although their model only accounts for the upper 700 meters.
Observed changes in
ocean heat content have now been shown to be inconsistent with simulated natural climate variability, but consistent with a combination
of natural and anthropogenic influences both on a
global scale, and in individual
ocean basins.
Instead, they have agreed to the new goal
of limiting
global ocean heat content to 1024 Joules.
Numerous denier arguments involving slight fluctuations in the
global distribution
of warmer vs cooler sea surface areas as supposed explanations
of climate change neglect all the energy that goes into
ocean heat content, melting large ice deposits and so forth.
Bayesian estimation
of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations oh hemispheric temperature and
global ocean heat content.
I would
of though
ocean heat content / sea level would be a far more robust metric to gauge
global change, particularly if modern values are stitched on the end.
A fluctuation in the location
of slightly warmer surface water could hardly cause the
global increase in
ocean heat content.
A review
of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for
ocean heat content estimates and climate change
The objective
of our study was to quantify the consistency
of near -
global and regional integrals
of ocean heat content and steric sea level (from in situ temperature and salinity data), total sea level (from satellite altimeter data) and
ocean mass (from satellite gravimetry data) from an Argo perspective.
It is certainly true that a very small temperature bias that is not random from instrument to instrument, but instead is the same over a large number
of profiles can create systematic error in
global estimates
of ocean heat content.
The connection between
global warming and the changes in
ocean heat content has long been a subject
of discussion in climate science.
[Response: Theoretically you could have a change in
ocean circulation that could cause a drop in
global mean temperature even while the total
heat content of the climate system increased.
If La Nina / El Nino can affect
global air temperatures in a period
of a few years, than other changes in
ocean currents (driven by AGW) can affect
global atmospheric
heat content in a few years.
Bayesian estimation
of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations
of hemispheric temperatures and
global ocean heat content
I also tried to find an estimate
of the net effect
of hurricane activity on upper
ocean heat content; there are some reports on individual hurricanes (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/pubs/Opal.pdf) but I couldn't find any
global estimates.
This makes perfect sense since there is little to no evidence
of an anthropogenic
global warming effect on
global Ocean Heat Content (OHC) data.
But if you google «noaa
ocean heat and salt
content» and compare the first two graphs («0 - 700m
global ocean heat content» versus «0 - 2000m
global ocean heat content») you will see that the sea SURFACE temperature is much more reflective
of what is going on in the atmosphere than the
oceans depths.
«
Global Ocean Heat Content 1955 - 2008 in Light
of Recently Revealed Instrumentation Problems.»
The estimate
of increase in
global ocean heat content for 1971 — 2010 quantified in Box 3.1 corresponds to an increase in mean net
heat flux from the atmosphere to the
ocean of 0.55 W m — 2.
Several researchers have pointed to various other indicators as evidence
of «
global warming», e.g., Arctic sea ice records,
ocean heat content measurements, or animal and plant migration patterns.However, all
of these indicators are either too short to compare recent temperatures to temperatures before the 1950s, or else are affected by non-climatic biases.
[12] Magne Aldrin et al., «Bayesian Estimation
of Climate Sensitivity Based on a Simple Climate Model Fitted to Observations
of Hemispheric Temperatures and
Global Ocean Heat Content,» Environmetrics, Vol.
DK12 used
ocean heat content (OHC) data for the upper 700 meters
of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate
of OHC increase has slowed in recent years (the very short timeframe
of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods
of «climate shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC data indicate that the net climate feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount
of global warming in response to a doubling
of atmospheric CO2 levels, including feedbacks) is low.
6, No. 6 (June 2013), pp. 415 — 416; Magne Aldrin et al., «Bayesian Estimation
of Climate Sensitivity Based on a Simple Climate Model Fitted to Observations
of Hemispheric Temperatures and
Global Ocean Heat Content,» Environmetrics, Vol.
The demonstrated ability
of GRACE to measure interannual OBP variability on a
global scale is unprecedented and has important implications for assessing deep
ocean heat content and
ocean dynamics.
Ocean warming: «Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&r
Ocean warming: «Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records» «Tracking
ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&r
ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review
of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&r
ocean temperature observations: Implications for
ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&r
ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its
ocean structure since 2006&r
ocean structure since 2006»
Given that it is all eventually going to come back to the issue
of the gradual gain we've been seeing in
ocean heat content over many decades, the most accurate thing we can say is that 2014's warmth is very consistent with the general accumulation
of energy in Earth's climate system caused by increasing GH gases and is well accounted for dynamically in
global climate models.
Given that the
global atmosphere
of 2013 does not equal the
global atmosphere
of 1946, nor does the
ocean heat content of 2013 equal the likely
ocean heat content of 1946, all these factors combined make the next few decades among the most exciting times to be studying the climate and the relative anthropogenic effects theron.
Based on the linear trend, for the 0 to 3,000 m layer for the period 1961 to 2003 there has been an increase
of ocean heat content of approximately 14.2 ± 2.4 × 1022 J, corresponding to a
global ocean volume mean temperature increase
of 0.037 °C during this period.
In the following paper, Trenberth and collaborators argue that the «missing»
heat is sequestered in the
ocean, below 700 m: Ref: «Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis
of global ocean heat content» (Geophysical research letters — first published 10 May 2013)
Time series
of annual average
global integrals
of upper
ocean heat content anomaly (1021 J, or ZJ) for (a) 0 — 100 m, (b) 0 — 300 m, (c) 0 — 700 m, and (d) 0 — 1800 m. Thin vertical lines denote when the coverage (Fig. 3) reaches 50 % for (a) 0 — 100 m, (b) 100 — 300 m, (c) 300 — 700 m, and (d) 900 — 1800 m. From Lyman & Johnson (2013)
In the present study, satellite altimetric height and historically available in situ temperature data were combined using the method developed by Willis et al. [2003], to produce
global estimates
of upper
ocean heat content, thermosteric expansion, and temperature variability over the 10.5 - year period from the beginning
of 1993 through mid-2003...
«A
global ocean heat content change (OHC) trend
of 0.55 ± 0.1 Wm ^ 2 is estimated over the time period 2005 — 2010.
For as much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount
of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the deep
oceans and the change in the
global heat content (Figure 4).
The so called «climate sensitivity» factor is a theoretical pretension in view
of the incontrovertible fact that the true metric
of global warmth is
ocean heat content.
The anomaly
of the
ocean heat content is more important than the atmospheric temperature anomaly for the conclusion whether
global warming stopped or whether it hasn't, anyway.
Since the IPCC's graph above up to 2003 shows that most
of the energy from
global warming is in the
oceans, to a first approximation,
Ocean Heat Content change since then is going to be close enough to the Total
Heat Content change.