Figure 6 shows
the global land surface air temperature plus sea surface temperature anomalies (average of GISS LOTI, HADCRUT4 and NCDC datasets, like The Escalator) before, during and after the 1997/98 El Niño.
Not exact matches
The Tibetan Plateau in China experiences the strongest monsoon system on Earth, with powerful winds — and accompanying intense rains in the summer months — caused by a complex system of
global air circulation patterns and differences in
surface temperatures between
land and oceans.
Smith, T.M. and R.W. Reynolds, 2005: A
global merged
land air and sea
surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880 - 1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021 - 2036.
The former is likely to overestimate the true
global surface air temperature trend (since the oceans do not warm as fast as the
land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the
air temperature over the ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher rate than the ocean
temperature.
land surface air temperature) wouldn't cause the whole edifice of anthropogenic
global warming to collapse.
Lou Grinzo (12)-- I am under the impression that HadCRUTv3 uses
air temperatures on
land and sea
surface temperatures in the oceans to produce their
global mean.
However, the CRU
global mean combined
land air / sea
surface temperature estimates for Jan - Aug 2005 lag behind the 1998 annual mean estimate by 0.08 C (0.50 C vs. 58C for 1998) while GISS indicates a lag of 0.02 C.
The former is likely to overestimate the true
global surface air temperature trend (since the oceans do not warm as fast as the
land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the
air temperature over the ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher rate than the ocean
temperature.
Seems to me the debate about AGHG
global warming and increasing TC frequency / intensity / duration boils down to the fact that as sea
surface temperatures, as well as deeper water
temperatures rise, the wallop of any TC over warmer seas without mitigating circumstances like wind sheer and dry
air off
land masses entrained in the cyclone will likely be much more devastating.
AGW and models say that there will be an increase in the
global temperature [
air or sea or
land surface, take your pick] if the CO2 increases.
The annual anomaly of the
global average
surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the average of the near -
surface air temperature over
land and the SST) was +0.27 °C above the 1981 - 2010 average (+0.63 °C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891.
Water takes longer to heat up and cool down than does the
air or
land, so ocean warming is considered to be a better indicator of
global warming than measurements of
global atmospheric
temperatures at the Earth's
surface.
Surface warming: «Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset
Surface warming: «
Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&
Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4
temperature series and its impact on recent
temperature trends» «Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual
global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&
global warming trend» «On the definition and identifiability of the alleged «hiatus» in
global warming» «Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&
global warming» «
Global land - surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset&
Global land -
surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset
surface air temperature change based on the new CMA GLSAT dataset»
Oh, and regarding that last quote — why promote the misperception that
land surface air temperatures equals «
global warming.»
Figure 1:
Global temperatures from models are calculated using
air temperatures above the
land surface and also from the upper few meters of the ocean.
Since then there are a number of papers published on why the warming was statistically insignificant including a recent one by Richardson et al. 2016 which tries to explain that the models were projecting a
global tas (
temperature air surface) but the actual observations are a combination of tas (
land) and SST oceans, meaning projected warming shouldn't be as much as projected.
I'm inclined to think that Ocean Heat Content, trends in
land ice and Sea levels are more appropriate indicators of
global climate change than
surface air temperatures, but that's another issue.
The fact this is seemingly not fully recognized — or here integrated — by Curry goes to the same reason Curry does not recognize why the so called «pause» is a fiction, why the «slowing» of the «rate» of increase in average ambient
global land and ocean
surface air temperatures over a shorter term period from the larger spike beyond the longer term mean of the 90s is also meaningless in terms of the basic issue, and why the average ambient increase in
global air temperatures over such a short term is by far the least important empirical indicia of the issue.
«Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates» «Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data» «Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended
land air and ocean sea
surface temperatures» «Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4
temperature series and its impact on recent
temperature trends» «Reconciling warming trends» «Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled» «Reconciling controversies about the «
global warming hiatus»»
There is even a slightly finer distinction that is almost always skipped: when it comes to the
land record, we're talking about
global surface air temperature.
Figure 2.4 (Folland et al., 2001) shows simulations of
global land -
surface air temperature anomalies in model runs forced with SST, with and without bias adjustments to the SST data before 1942.
The
global SST show mostly similar trends to those of the
land -
surface air temperature until 1976, but the trend since 1976 is markedly less (Table 2.1).
Global average
surface air temperatures only reflect the heat present in the atmospheric layer immediately above the
land / ocean
surface.
NCDC merges their Extended Reconstructed Sea
Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST.v3b) with the Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly (GHCN - M) version 3.2.0 for land surface air temper
Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST.v3b) with the
Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly (GHCN - M) version 3.2.0 for
land surface air temper
surface air temperatures.
References: Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds (2005), A
global merged
land air and sea
surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880 - 1997), J. Climate, 18, 2021 - 2036.
https://judithcurry.com/2016/02/10/are-
land-sea-
temperature-averages-meaningful/ Several of the major datasets that claim to represent «
global average
surface temperature» are directly or effectively averaging
land air temperatures with sea
surface temperatures.
Ocean
surface temperatures increase 0,44 deg C, total
global increase 0,55 deg C,
land air increase 0,9 deg C, low troposphere (RSS and UAH) 0,44 deg C. I think you would get much of the same impression of the differences with a different timespan.
Blue points: the GISS 1999
land + sea
global surface air temperature record.
Global temperatures usually are described in terms of the
surface air temperature anomaly, the deviation of the
temperature at each site from a mean of many years that is averaged over the whole world, both
land and oceans.
However, for changes over time, only anomalies, as departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on the area - weighted
global average of the sea
surface temperature anomaly and
land surface air temperature anomaly.
Cartoon comparing (a) Fi, instantaneous forcing, (b) Fa, adjusted forcing, which allows stratospheric
temperature to adjust, (c) Fg, fixed Tg forcing, which allows atmospheric
temperature to adjust, (d) Fs, fixed SST forcing, which allows atmospheric
temperature and
land temperature to adjust, and (e) DTs,
global surface air temperature calculated by the climate model in response to the climate forcing agent.»
Modelled
surface air temperature increases in all regions and seasons, with most
land areas warming more rapidly than the
global average (Giorgi et al., 2001; Ruosteenoja et al., 2003).
Therefore, in contrast to the Jones et al. (2001)
global land -
surface air temperature data, the
global land and sea
surface temperature data are not a simple average of the hemispheres.