Projected ranges of
global mean annual temperature change during the 21st century for CO2 - stabilisation scenarios (upper panel, based on the TAR) and for the six illustrative SRES scenarios (middle and lower panels, based on the WG I Fourth Assessment).
Global mean annual temperature (GMAT) is the metric most commonly employed by the IPCC and adopted in the international policy arena to summarise future changes in global climate and their likely impacts (see Chapter 19, Box 19.2).
Projections of
global mean annual temperature change for SRES and CO2 - stabilisation profiles are presented in Box 2.8.
Climate change and preserving cold carbon (March 24, 2016) Prof. Nigel Roulet, Department of Geography Support more Climate State coverage: Paypal email:
[email protected] Patreon https://www.patreon.com/ClimateState Synopsis The countries participating in COP21 in Paris, December 2015 agreed to take steps to emissions so that
the global mean annual temperature increase would not be more than 2ºC...
Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of
global mean annual temperature rise, ΔT, relative to pre-industrial climate (approach and event numbers as used in Table 4.1 and Appendix 4.1).
Although the regions largely coincide with the continents rather than climatological criteria, the annual mean temperature averaged over these regions explains 90 % of
the global mean annual temperature variability in the instrumental record»
If you want a really really simple statistical climate model, try correlating
global mean annual temperature & / or sea level with the CO2 data from Mauna Loa.
The lower 48 states are projected to cross the 2 - degree C warming threshold about 10 to 20 years earlier than
the global mean annual temperature, they note.
I do not believe that
global mean annual temperatures have simply cooled progressively over thousands of years as Mike appears to and I contend that that there is strong evidence for major changes in climate over the Holocene (not Milankovich) that require explanation
Not exact matches
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should
mean higher
temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs.
annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial
annual average
global surface
temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial fits.
However, comparison of the
global,
annual mean time series of near - surface
temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
Tsushima, Y., A. Abe - Ouchi, and S. Manabe, 2005: Radiative damping of
annual variation in
global mean surface
temperature: Comparison between observed and simulated feedback.
To contribute to an understanding of the underlying causes of these changes we compile various environmental records (and model - based interpretations of some of them) in order to calculate the direct effect of various processes on Earth's radiative budget and, thus, on
global annual mean surface
temperature over the last 800,000 years.
The review by O'Gorman et al (3) reports that a 1C increase in
global mean temperature will result in a 2 % — 7 % increase in the precipitation rate; the lower values are results of GCM output, and the upper values are results from regressing estimated
annual rainfalls on
annual mean temperatures.
Abstract:» The sensitivity of
global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms of the
global climate feedback — the
global radiative response per degree of
global annual mean surface
temperature change.
One finds on the secular time scale that both of the X - and Y - component temporal,
annual - means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual M
annual -
means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA) annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Me
means profiles of the Earth's Orientation mimic exactly the
Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA)
annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual M
annual means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD) Annual Me
means profile On the decade time scale one finds that the GTA mimics the Geomagnetic Dipole variations and the variations in the Earths Anomalous Rotation Rate [i.e., Excess Length of Day (ELOD)
Annual M
Annual MeansMeans].
You stated «The red line is the
annual global -
mean GISTEMP
temperature record (though any other data set would do just as well),...
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and
global mean temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally averaged surface
temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally averaged
temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the
annual cycle.
Overall, ecosystem - driven changes in chemistry induced climate feedbacks that increased
global mean annual land surface
temperatures by 1.4 and 2.7 K for the 2 × and 4 × CO2 Eocene simulations, respectively, and 2.2 K for the Cretaceous (Fig. 3 E and F).
The IPCC claims the models»
global (wide)
mean annual temperatures is highly correlated (0.98) with measured actual (ignoring for now the question of the validity and reliability (noise) of the measurements themselves).
However, the
annual mean predictions for the
global temperature that they issue every year does have some skill — being based mainly on the state of ENSO at the start of the year.
Abstract:» The sensitivity of
global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms of the
global climate feedback — the
global radiative response per degree of
global annual mean surface
temperature change.
Here are the
mean global annual temperature anomalies for 2001 to 2006 (NASA GISS):
Thus, the simplest thing to do is to: a) construct a time series of
annual global temperature averages, add a random component to each year (value drawn from a gaussian with the given standard deviation and
mean zero).
Yu Kosaka & Shang - Ping Xie, as published in Nature (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v501/n7467/full/nature12534.html): «Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the
annual -
mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty - first century1, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming.»
Global warming is talking about the mean global annual surface temper
Global warming is talking about the
mean global annual surface temper
global annual surface
temperature.
However, the CRU
global mean combined land air / sea surface
temperature estimates for Jan - Aug 2005 lag behind the 1998
annual mean estimate by 0.08 C (0.50 C vs. 58C for 1998) while GISS indicates a lag of 0.02 C.
See the observations in Roemmich & Gilson (2009)-- The 2004 - 2008
mean and
annual cycle of
temperature, salinity, and steric height in the
global ocean from the Argo program.
Estimates of the
global and
annual mean temperature based on a number of different data sets, including both traditional analyses as well as re-analyses (also see the last 15 years).
In Fig. 8, I have digitized the outer bounds of the model runs in Fig. 7, and also plotted the HadCRUT3
global annual mean temperature anomaly over the same period.
Estimates of the
global and
annual mean temperature based on a number of different data sets, including both traditional analyses as well as re-analyses
The latest record for
global and
annual mean was set 1998, but it may also be slightly different when looking at local
temperatures and on a monthly basis.
If we look at the
global annual mean temperature anomaly time series (as derived from the University of East Angliaâ??
The term «climate sensitivity» refers to the steady - state increase in the
global annual mean surface air
temperature associated with a given
global mean radiative forcing.
«In considering the question of human activity and climate change it is essential to distinguish between
global warming, which is a progressive increase in the
annual mean global temperature, and human - activity - induced greenhouse warming, as may, for example, be caused by the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as a result of fossil fuel combustion or deforestation.»
Figure A illustrates how 1 C of
global warming might affect the
annual mean temperature over the Mediterranean Basin.
Figure B shows the scenario for the change in
annual mean temperature per 1 C
global warming using this method for 248 meteorological stations.
By comparing modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the
global mean surface
temperature, the land - ocean
temperature contrast, the
temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the
mean magnitude of the
annual cycle in
temperature over land and the
mean meridional
temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.
We may thus discount the chaotic
annual fluctuations of
global mean temperature.
The
annual global mean temperature for every year since the TAR has been among the 10 warmest years since the beginning of the instrumental record.
The focus on anomalys has distracted from the most relevant metric,
Global Annual Average
Temperature, which has been increasing every year for the last 10 and longer,
meaning no «Plateau»..
For decades we have reported / updated the
global temperature record, showing the calendar - year
annual -
mean temperature, usually with the 5 - year running -
mean included.
The reason I am persisting with this is that I think there has been no plateau in
Global warming over the last 10 years, as every year has been above average thus the average of the population is increasing,
meaning Annual Global Average
Temperature has been increasing.
The graph shows
global annual surface
temperatures relative to 1951 - 1980
mean temperatures.
The
global mean temperature for 2015 is expected to be between 0.52 °C and 0.76 °C * above the long - term (1961 - 1990) average of 14.0 °C, with a central estimate of 0.64 °C, according to the Met Office
annual global temperature forecast.
However, comparison of the
global,
annual mean time series of near - surface
temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
««Removing the
annual emissions traced to 90 major carbon producers from the best estimate full historical forcing case shows that the combustion of their products from 1880 to 2010 led to a 0.4 (± 0.01) °C increase in [
global mean standard
temperature]...» This claim is absolutely bogus.
Figure 1, above:
Global mean annual average
temperature in the simulations with time - varying long - lived species only (top) and due to short - lived species (bottom).
Image at right: Graph of
global annual surface
temperatures relative to 1951 - 1980
mean temperature.
Black lines show observed
global mean annual mean temperature from HadCRUT3, and thin coloured lines show
global mean temperature from five - member ensembles of CanESM2 forced with (a) anthropogenic and natural forcings (ALL), (b) natural forcings only (NAT), (c) greenhouse gases only (GHG), and (d) aerosols only (AER).