Sentences with phrase «global mean precipitation»

This study seeks to explain the effects of cloud on changes in atmospheric radiative absorption that largely balance changes in global mean precipitation under climate change.

Accordingly, in our estimate of the global circulation power we use global mean precipitation P which characterizes both regions where the air is ascending and precipitation is high and regions where the air descends and precipitation is low.

Models simulate that global mean precipitation increases with global warming.

Figuring how this would influence the global mean precipitation rate is well beyond what I can do in my head.

As Isaac says, global mean precipitation is a less useful summary statistic than global mean temperature, if you are interested in what life will be like in a doubled CO2 world.

However, global mean precipitation is controlled not by the availability of water vapour, but by a balance between the latent heat of condensation and radiative cooling in the troposphere.

Not exact matches

«If you were to try to measure global precipitation on the ground — I mean currently I can fit all of the rain gauges on the globe in the area of about a basketball court,» he said.

There were no significant trends in mean annual total precipitation or total precipitation affected area but we did observe a significant increase in mean annual rain - free days, where the mean number of dry days increased by 1.31 days per decade and the global area affected by anomalously dry years significantly increased by 1.6 % per decade.

The review by O'Gorman et al (3) reports that a 1C increase in global mean temperature will result in a 2 % — 7 % increase in the precipitation rate; the lower values are results of GCM output, and the upper values are results from regressing estimated annual rainfalls on annual mean temperatures.

Here's the problem forests and forest managers face under climate change: Increasing global mean temperatures, changes in precipitation, and the hydrologic cycle are expected to lead to temperature and drought stress for many tree species.

«Thus changes in the pattern of R could directly influence that of precipitation, regardless of any impact on the global mean radiation budget.»

«The global mean latent heat flux is required to exceed 80 W m — 2 to close the surface energy balance in Figure 2.11, and comes close to the 85 W m — 2 considered as upper limit by Trenberth and Fasullo (2012b) in view of current uncertainties in precipitation retrieval in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, Adler et al., 2012)(the latent heat flux corresponds to the energy equivalent of evaporation, which globally equals precipitation; thus its magnitude may be constrained by global precipitation estimglobal mean latent heat flux is required to exceed 80 W m — 2 to close the surface energy balance in Figure 2.11, and comes close to the 85 W m — 2 considered as upper limit by Trenberth and Fasullo (2012b) in view of current uncertainties in precipitation retrieval in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, Adler et al., 2012)(the latent heat flux corresponds to the energy equivalent of evaporation, which globally equals precipitation; thus its magnitude may be constrained by global precipitatioprecipitation retrieval in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, Adler et al., 2012)(the latent heat flux corresponds to the energy equivalent of evaporation, which globally equals precipitation; thus its magnitude may be constrained by global precipitation estimGlobal Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, Adler et al., 2012)(the latent heat flux corresponds to the energy equivalent of evaporation, which globally equals precipitation; thus its magnitude may be constrained by global precipitatioPrecipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, Adler et al., 2012)(the latent heat flux corresponds to the energy equivalent of evaporation, which globally equals precipitation; thus its magnitude may be constrained by global precipitatioprecipitation; thus its magnitude may be constrained by global precipitation estimglobal precipitationprecipitation estimates).

The ECMWF provides data for some climate indices, such as the global mean temperature, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a web site for extreme temperatures and precipitation around the world with an interactive map, showing the warmest and coldest sites on the continents.

Because latent heat release in the course of precipitation must be balanced in the global mean by infrared radiative cooling of the troposphere (over time scales at which the atmosphere is approximately in equilibrium), it is sometimes argued that radiative constraints limit the rate at which precipitation can increase in response to increasing CO2.

They discussed the effect of variables being non-iid on the extreme value analysis, and after taking that into account, propose that changes in extreme precipitation are likely to be larger than the corresponding changes in annual mean precipitation under a global warming.

Fractional changes in local precipitation are expected to be larger than those in the global mean.

Further, precipitation over land is a small fraction of the total, so there's a lot of room for changes in precip there without altering the result on the global mean.

«Since the AR4, there is some new limited direct evidence for an anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation, including a formal detection and attribution study and indirect evidence that extreme precipitation would be expected to have increased given the evidence of anthropogenic influence on various aspects of the global hydrological cycle and high confidence that the intensity of extreme precipitation events will increase with warming, at a rate well exceeding that of the mean precipitation..

The net change over land accounts for 24 % of the global mean increase in precipitation, a little less than the areal proportion of land (29 %).

The global map of the A1B 2080 to 2099 change in annual mean precipitation is shown in Figure 10.12, along with other hydrological quantities from the multi-model ensemble.

In GCMs, the global mean evaporation changes closely balance the precipitation change, but not locally because of changes in the atmospheric transport of water vapour.

This criterion may not be satisfied if observations are available only over a short time period (as is the case for the vertical structure of clouds), or if the predictor is defined through low - frequency variability (trends, decadal variability), or if there is a lack of consistency among available datasets (as in the case for global - mean precipitation and surface fluxes).

Understanding how the global - mean precipitation rate will change in response to a climate forcing is a useful thing to know.

The authors show how the global - mean precipitation is constrained by the atmospheric cooling.

al.) cause precipitation, and these events are both unpredictable and not determined by global mean temperature.

Some global circulation models also project that mean winter precipitation in the Southwest will decline by up to 10 % [52], but it may take many years to detect effects on stream flows because of precipitation variability [55].

Based on process understanding and agreement in 21st century projections, it is likely that the global frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and precipitation rates.

The evolution of global mean surface temperatures, zonal means and fields of sea surface temperatures, land surface temperatures, precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, vertically integrated diabatic heating and divergence of atmospheric energy transports, and ocean heat content in the Pacific is documented using correlation and regression analysis.

AOGCM experiments suggest that global - average annual mean precipitation will increase on average by 1 to 3 % / °C under the enhanced greenhouse effect (Figure 9.18).

The NAO's prominent upward trend from the 1950s to the 1990s caused large regional changes in air temperature, precipitation, wind and storminess, with accompanying impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and contributed to the accelerated rise in global mean surface temperature (e.g., Hurrell 1996; Ottersen et al. 2001; Thompson et al. 2000; Visbeck et al. 2003; Stenseth et al. 2003).

Fit of EC - Earth Northern England precipitation to a normal distribution that scales with the ensemble average global mean temperature.

It provided the most likely future evolution of the global mean temperature under different socio - economic scenarios and that of other quantities like regional precipitation changes.

Global solar irradiance reconstruction [48 — 50] and ice - core based sulfate (SO4) influx in the Northern Hemisphere [51] from volcanic activity (a); mean annual temperature (MAT) reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere [52], North America [29], and the American Southwest * expressed as anomalies based on 1961 — 1990 temperature averages (b); changes in ENSO - related variability based on El Junco diatom record [41], oxygen isotopes records from Palmyra [42], and the unified ENSO proxy [UEP; 23](c); changes in PDSI variability for the American Southwest (d), and changes in winter precipitation variability as simulated by CESM model ensembles 2 to 5 [43].

The figure below shows the change in precipitation and evaporation (which have to balance globally) against the global mean surface temperature change.

All of these characteristics (except for the ocean temperature) have been used in SAR and TAR IPCC (Houghton et al. 1996; 2001) reports for model - data inter-comparison: we considered as tolerable the following intervals for the annual means of the following climate characteristics which encompass corresponding empirical estimates: global SAT 13.1 — 14.1 °C (Jones et al. 1999); area of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere 6 — 14 mil km2 and in the Southern Hemisphere 6 — 18 mil km2 (Cavalieri et al. 2003); total precipitation rate 2.45 — 3.05 mm / day (Legates 1995); maximum Atlantic northward heat transport 0.5 — 1.5 PW (Ganachaud and Wunsch 2003); maximum of North Atlantic meridional overturning stream function 15 — 25 Sv (Talley et al. 2003), volume averaged ocean temperature 3 — 5 °C (Levitus 1982).

These figures illustrate the way the probability distribution of future global mean temperature change under a high - emissions scenario is linked to different potential changes in temperature and precipitation at a county - level.

We have shown that integrating this equation globally, using the observed mean global precipitation, produces the observed value of the global circulation power.

The authors tried to constrain the global - mean future precipitation change simulated by the set of climate models participating in the CMIP2 model intercomparison project through observable temperature variability and a simple energetic framework.

Observed 1979 — 2008 trends in global surface temperatures, Z850 and low - latitude precipitation are shown in Fig. 9a, and the simulated trends in Z850 and precipitation from the GOGA and TOGA ensemble means are shown in Fig. 9b, c, respectively.

If proven correct, the hypothesis could have massive ramifications on global policy — not to mention meteorology — as essentially the hypothesis means that the world's forest play a major role in driving precipitation from the coast into a continent's interior.

Indeed, our results show that even in the absence of trends in mean precipitation — or trends in the occurrence of extremely low - precipitation events — the risk of severe drought in California has already increased due to extremely warm conditions induced by anthropogenic global warming.

If a shift in the hydrological cycle were to lower the response in the global mean temperature, there may be a poisonous sting in such a negative feedback: changes in the precipitation patterns.

«Indeed it is estimated that annual mean temperature has increased by over 2 °C during the last 70 years and precipitation has decreased in most regions, except the western part of the country, indicating that Mongolia is among the most vulnerable nations in the world to global warming.»

The temperature and precipitation changes from the high - end models were scaled to a global mean warming of 4 °C.

Temperature and precipitation changes from the high - end model simulations (21 runs) were scaled to a global mean warming of 4 °C.

The patterns and magnitude of the precipitation changes (scaled to a global mean warming of 4 °C) are similar in the high - end and non-high-end models, although the reductions in precipitation tend to be slightly greater in the high - end models.

Precipitation changes (%) in (a, b) DJF and (c, d) JJA from the median of the A2 ensemble, after scaling to 4 °C global mean warming in all cases.

Model - average mean local precipitation responses also roughly scale with the global mean temperature response across the emissions scenarios, though not as well as for temperature.