How much of a problem is delayed participation by developing countries in terms of raising the overall burden of
global mitigation costs, and what does this imply for appropriate near - term emissions pricing goals for the United States, if eventual targets for global stabilization are still to be met?
Not exact matches
For example, a large body of research has found switching to an entirely vegetarian diet would make a huge difference on the carbon footprint of our food system — the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security research program reports that if the
global population were to reduce or cut its meat intake, it would halve the
cost of
mitigation actions needed to stabilize carbon dioxide levels to 450 parts per million by midcentury — but for many people that is not in the cards.
The authors of this new research paper analysed data and models from the USEPA's updated
global non-CO2 GHG
mitigation assessment to investigate the potential for GHG reductions from agricultural emissions from seven regions globally, offsetting
costs against social benefit of GHG
mitigation (e.g. human health, flood risk and energy
costs).
James A. Edmonds • Member, IPCC Steering Committee on «New Integrated Scenarios» (2006 - present) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «Framing Issues,» IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «
Global, Regional, and National
Costs and Ancillary Benefits of
Mitigation,» IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «Decision - Making Frameworks,» IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) • Lead Author, Working Group III, Summary for Policy Makers, IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) • Lead Author, Working Group II, «Energy Supply
Mitigation Options,» IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996) • Lead Author, Working Group II, «
Mitigation: Cross-Sectoral and Other Issues,» IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «Estimating the
Costs of Mitigating Greenhouse Gases,» IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «A Review of
Mitigation Cost Studies,» IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996) • Lead Author, Working Group III, «Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: An Overview and Comparison of Approaches and Results,» IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996) • Lead Author, IPCC Special Report, Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios (1994) • Lead Author, IPCC Special Report, Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment (1992) • Major contributor, IPCC First Assessment Report, Working Group III, Response Strategies Working Group (1991).
On the other side, while there will undoubtedly be high
costs to any serious attempt at
mitigation, this would also require something like a
global agreement (covering at least the rich world, India and China, and probably other states with large and currently poor populations) which would inevitably have to bring in issues other than greenhouse gas emissions — such as those you mention — if only because these states will say, reasonably enough, that they can not bring their populations on board without serious help in those other areas.
Nobel Prize - winning economist Kenneth Arrow wrote recently that «These calculations [on
costs and benefits of slowing
global warming] indicate that, even with higher discounting, The Stern Review's estimates of future benefits and
costs imply that
mitigation makes economic sense.»
, and Putin — create new industries and jobs in clean energy products and services — reduce payroll taxes — make fossil fuels include more of their real
costs, including health / pollution and our mega military spending in the Middle East — AND, apply the marketplace to force real major
mitigation of
global warming rise.
Though, as you say, compared to the
cost of 50 years of
global mitigation, maybe not so much.
Figure 10 shows this rapidly growing gap divided between (green) «no regrets» reductions, which have zero or net negative
costs, and the much larger «
global mitigation requirement» (blue).
Comparing the
costs of
mitigation with avoided damages would require the reconciliation of welfare impacts on people living in different places and at different points in time into a
global aggregate measure of well - being.
A
Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) report by Willem de Lange and Bob Carter suggest that, with regards to sea level change «adaptation is more
cost - effective than
mitigation.»
I've used the present value abatement
costs and the projected
global temperature change for the
mitigation policies listed in Table 5 - 1 to calculate the
cost per °C temperature change avoided.
On climate finance, Harjeet Singh,
global climate lead at ActionAid International, said: «The issue of finance underpins so many different parts of the climate negotiations, because poor countries simply can't cover the triple
costs of loss and damage, adaptation and
mitigation on their own.
The
cost per °C temperature change avoided is calculated from the present value abatement
costs and the projected
global temperature change for the
mitigation policies listed in Table 5 - 1.
«
Mitigation cost estimates vary, but...
global economic growth would not be strongly affected.»
This analytical report shows the wide range of adverse impacts of climate change in Africa and assesses the balance of economic
costs, as a function of a range of scenarios including both successful and failed
global mitigation efforts, and strong compared to weak implementation of adaptation measures.
-- However, if in the absence of
mitigation these events eventually rose to provide a substantial cooling, it could be highly variable year to year and thereby impose severely damaging
global temperature fluctuations, and it could also be at the
cost of a related scale of volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis destroying more of society's infrastructure.
The World Bank Group estimates that widespread
global cooperation on carbon trading could bring down the
costs of international climate
mitigation efforts by up to 32 percent by 2030.
Costs and benefits of the proposed
mitigation policy compared with no
mitigation policy Item; Units; Optimal Carbon Price; Low -
cost backstop; Table Benefits (Reduced damages); 2006 US $ trillion; 5.23; 17.63; 5 - 3 Abatement Cost; 2007 US $ trillion; 2.16; 0.44; 5 - 3 Net Benefit of policy; 2005 US $ trillion; 3.37; 17.19; 5 - 1 Implied CO2 Tax; 2005 US $ / ton C; 202.4; 4.1; 5 - 1 CO2 emissions in 2100; Gt C / a; 11; 0; 5 - 6 CO2 concentration in 2100; ppm CO2; 586; 340; 5 - 7 Global temperature change in 2100; °C from 1900; 2.61; 0.9; 5
cost backstop; Table Benefits (Reduced damages); 2006 US $ trillion; 5.23; 17.63; 5 - 3 Abatement
Cost; 2007 US $ trillion; 2.16; 0.44; 5 - 3 Net Benefit of policy; 2005 US $ trillion; 3.37; 17.19; 5 - 1 Implied CO2 Tax; 2005 US $ / ton C; 202.4; 4.1; 5 - 1 CO2 emissions in 2100; Gt C / a; 11; 0; 5 - 6 CO2 concentration in 2100; ppm CO2; 586; 340; 5 - 7 Global temperature change in 2100; °C from 1900; 2.61; 0.9; 5
Cost; 2007 US $ trillion; 2.16; 0.44; 5 - 3 Net Benefit of policy; 2005 US $ trillion; 3.37; 17.19; 5 - 1 Implied CO2 Tax; 2005 US $ / ton C; 202.4; 4.1; 5 - 1 CO2 emissions in 2100; Gt C / a; 11; 0; 5 - 6 CO2 concentration in 2100; ppm CO2; 586; 340; 5 - 7
Global temperature change in 2100; °C from 1900; 2.61; 0.9; 5 - 1
The situation is indeed clear; we can logically conclude from geology, physics, climate science, ecology, and economics that a few hundred more ppm of CO2 would most likely be net beneficial globally and even for those areas or circumstances in which
global warming would not be beneficial it would be considerably more feasible and
cost effective to implement local adaptations than attempt
global mitigation which comes with no money - back guarantees should the entire (100 %) world not play ball.
In the build - up to 21st Conference of the Parties (CoP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Parties to the Montreal Protocol launched formal negotiations on one of the largest, fastest and most
cost - effective
global climate
mitigation measures available — the phase down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).
Favorable energy economics are just one of solar's many benefits — including less water use, lack of requirement for a centralized grid in undeveloped regions, low
cost, zero air pollution, and in providing a
mitigation for the rising problem of
global climate change (which is primarily driven by human fossil fuel burning).
In 2050,
global average macro-economic
costs for
mitigation towards stabilisation between 710 and 445 ppm CO2 - eq... corresponds to slowing average annual
global GDP growth by less than 0.12 percentage points.
There is high agreement and medium evidence that in 2050
global average macro-economic
costs for multi-gas
mitigation towards stabilisation between 710 and 445ppm CO2 - eq are between a 1 % gain to a 5.5 % decrease of
global GDP (Table 5.2).
In general, available top ‐ down estimates of
costs and potentials suggest that AFOLU
mitigation will be an important part of a
global cost ‐ effective abatement strategy.
We expect South Africa's INDC to galvanize important conversations about a
global adaptation goal, the connections between
mitigation and adaptation, and the challenges of
costing adaptation action.
Economists and climate scientists have developed a number of models to estimate
global emissions prices that are consistent with ultimately stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations at these target levels and minimizing the
global burden of
mitigation costs over time.
On climate finance, Harjeet Singh,
Global Climate Lead, ActionAid International: «The issue of finance underpins so many different parts of climate negotiations, because poor countries simply can't cover the triple
costs of loss and damage, adaptation and
mitigation on their own.
No policy to abate
global warming by controlling CO2 emissions would prove
cost - effective solely on grounds of the welfare benefit from climate
mitigation.
In January 2006, at the opening of his new Cambridge Centre for Climate Change
Mitigation Research, (4CMR), Dr Terry Barker said «It may seem astonishing, but the
global climate models, providing governments with estimates of the
costs of climate stabilisation are nearly all reliant on one year's data.»
So we have a proposed
mitigation action, whose unintended negative consequences we are unable to estimate, which would result in an imperceptible change in our
global climate at an exorbitant
cost.
China is the world's second largest CO2 emitter behind the U.S. To what extent China gets involved in combating
global climate change is extremely important both for lowering compliance
costs of climate
mitigation and adaptation and for moving international climate negotiations forward.
Such rules will also be important to enable a
global carbon market to operate effectively and help drive down the
cost of climate change
mitigation.
Both the probability of damage from CO2 induced
global warming (the range of projected temps) and the
cost of damage and / or
mitigation (technology marches on and gets cheaper) decades in the future are unknown.
«The
cost of this pathway of
mitigation is really very low,» said Pachauri, adding that the «loss in consumption per year globally would be no more than 0.06 percent of the
global GDP.»
However, it's not just on the
cost of adaptation that the proposed ERF makes miscalculations: it also gets wrong the
global costs of
mitigation effort in 2020.
And yet IPCC's Fourth Assessment conclusion, duly delivered to policymakers, is that climate
mitigation will
cost, on average, «0.12 percentage points [of
global GDP] per year for 50 years.»
Given that Nicholas Stern — one of the leaders of GAP — imagines a world in which climate change
costs integer percentages of
global GDP, and argues for similar expenditure or opportunity
cost on
mitigation, it hardly seems like a sensible claim.
Abstract: An evaluation of analyses sponsored by the predecessor to the U.K. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) of the
global impacts of climate change under various
mitigation scenarios (including CO2 stabilization at 550 and 750 ppm) coupled with an examination of the relative
costs associated with different schemes to either mitigate climate change or reduce vulnerability to various climate - sensitive hazards (namely, malaria, hunger, water shortage, coastal flooding, and losses of
global forests and coastal wetlands) indicates that, at least for the next few decades, risks and / or threats associated with these hazards would be lowered much more effectively and economically by reducing current and future vulnerability to those hazards rather than through stabilization.
What I deny is the catastrophe — the proposition that man - made
global warming ** will cause catastrophic climate changes whose adverse affects will outweigh both the benefits of warming as well as the
costs of
mitigation.
By the end of the four - year, $ 1.5 million grant, the team plans to build a simulator that will let users see how the different choices for carbon dioxide
mitigation available to individual countries might map to different local and
global costs and benefits.
One other thing to consider: In general, efforts at
mitigation do a better job of assigning more of the
costs of dealing with
global warming to the the people who have contributed more to in - the - pipeline
global warming.
My point on the proposed «responses» (in this case primarily regional or
global mitigation steps aimed at reducing human GHG emissions) is that they should be actionable and subjected to a
cost / benefit analysis.
(b) that the
cost of emissions reductions at the required scale is likely to be manageable (1 % of
global annual GDP to be invested in
mitigation according to some economists), provided that meaningful action is taken immediately; and