Sentences with phrase «global observational estimate»

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The global increase in ocean heat content during the period 1993 to 2003 in two ocean models constrained by assimilating altimetric sea level and other observations (Carton et al., 2005; Köhl et al., 2006) is considerably larger than these observational estimates.

The global increase in ocean heat content during the period 1993 to 2003 in two ocean models constrained by assimilating altimetric sea level and other observations (Carton et al., 2005; Köhl et al., 2006) is considerably larger than these observational estimates.

Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones, 2012: Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset.

Studies surveyed Millar, R. et al. (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 C, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / ngeo3031 Matthews, H.D., et al. (2017) Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets, Current Climate Change Reports, doi: 10.1007 / s40641 -017-0055-0 Goodwin, P., et al. (2018) Pathways to 1.5 C and 2C warming based on observational and geological constraints, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -017-0054-8 Schurer, A.P., et al. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target, Nature Geophysics, doi: 10.1038 / s41561 -018-0086-8 Tokarska, K., and Gillett, N. (2018) Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 C global warming, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0118-9 Millar, R., and Friedlingstein, P. (2018) The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0449 Lowe, J.A., and Bernie, D. (2018) The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2017.0263 Rogelj, J., et al. (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558 -018-0091-3 Kriegler, E., et al. (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C: A tale of turning around in no time, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, doi: 10.1098 / rsta.2016.0457

An independent estimate of global - mean evaporation provides additional support, but critical assumptions on relative humidity and the air - sea temperature difference changes are made that do not have adequate observational basis and are inconsistent with climate models.»

Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones (2012), Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset, J. Geophys.

First, we note that the mean global power of atmospheric circulation estimated from (5) is about 4 W m − 2, which is in close agreement with the best observational estimates.

The bias in the other versions of the global temperature record due to change in observational platforms can be estimated from the difference between the raw and adjusted HadSST3 data, and is shown in Figure 2.

The traditional global mean radiative forcing provides no information about this regional structure, so many researchers have begun to present estimates of radiative forcing on a regional scale as derived from models or observational campaigns.

To better assess confidence in the different model estimates of climate sensitivity, two kinds of observational tests are available: tests related to the global climate response associated with specified external forcings (discussed in Chapters 6, 9 and 10; Box 10.2) and tests focused on the simulation of key feedback processes.

Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming3, 4,5,6, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity.

The conclusion — taking the best observational estimates of the change in decadal - average global temperature between 1871 - 80 and 2002 - 11, and of the corresponding changes in forcing and ocean heat uptake — is this: A doubling of CO2 will lead to a warming of 1.6 ° -1.7 °C (2.9 ° -3.1 °F).