The role of ENSO in
global ocean temperature changes during 1955 - 2011 simulated with a 1D climate model.
Not exact matches
Antarctica was also more sensitive to
global carbon dioxide levels, Cuffey said, which increased as the
global temperature increased because of
changing ocean currents that caused upwelling of carbon - dioxide - rich waters from the depths of the
ocean.
The resulting outburst of methane produced effects similar to those predicted by current models of
global climate
change: a sudden, extreme rise in
temperatures, combined with acidification of the
oceans.
«Many impacts respond directly to
changes in
global temperature, regardless of the sensitivity of the planet to human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases,» says geoscientist Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University in Lubbock, a co-author of the report, excluding effects such as
ocean acidification and CO2 as a fertilizer for plants.
By next year, the Argo project will have installed 3,000 floating sensors across all the
oceans, offering a daily snapshot of
global patterns of water
temperature and salinity — crucial for predicting the nature and pace of climate
change.
«Our research indicates that as
global warming continues, parts of East Antarctica will also be affected by these wind - induced
changes in
ocean currents and
temperatures,» Dr Jourdain said.
«By prescribing the effects of human - made climate
change and observed
global ocean temperatures, our model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather patterns and wildfire occurrences.»
«The range of pH and
temperature that some organisms experience on a daily basis exceeds the
changes we expect to see in the
global ocean by the end of the century,» notes Rivest, an assistant professor at VIMS.
Water
changes temperature more slowly than the air or land, which means the
global ocean heat is likely to persist for some time.
«The ability to adapt to
changing conditions is going to become even more important as humans impact the environment, whether it's from
ocean acidification or increasing
temperatures or other types of
global changes that are occurring.»
It's the
ocean «These small
global temperature increases of the last 25 years and over the last century are likely natural
changes that the globe has seen many times in the past.
For as much as atmospheric
temperatures are rising, the amount of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the deep
oceans and the
change in the
global heat content (Figure 4).
To remove this difference in magnitude and focus instead on the patterns of
change, the authors scaled the vertical profiles of
ocean temperature (area - weighted with respect to each vertical
ocean layer) with the
global surface air
temperature trend of each period.
In applying them, they found that a more realistic representation of the marine ecosystem helped the
ocean to take up and store carbon at similar rates regardless of
global changes in physical properties, like
temperature, salinity and circulation.
«The other carbon dioxide problem», «the evil twin of
global warming», or part of a «deadly trio», together with increasing
temperatures and loss of oxygen: Many names have been coined to describe the problem of
ocean acidification — a
change in the
ocean chemistry that occurs when carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere dissolves in seawater.
These rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have led to an increase in
global average
temperatures of ~ 0.2 °C decade — 1, much of which has been absorbed by the
oceans, whilst the oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 has led to major
changes in surface
ocean pH (Levitus et al., 2000, 2005; Feely et al., 2008; Hoegh - Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Mora et al., 2013; Roemmich et al., 2015).
With its mention of the
ocean and the pursuit to reduce
global warming to well below 2, even 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
temperatures, the agreement adopted by all 196 parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) in Paris on December 12, 2015, is appreciated by scientists present at the negotiations.
Temperature changes relative to the corresponding average for 1901 - 1950 (°C) from decade to decade from 1906 to 2005 over the Earth's continents, as well as the entire globe,
global land area and the
global ocean (lower graphs).
The only time period that remotely resembles the
ocean changes happening today, based on geologic records, was 56 million years ago when carbon mysteriously doubled in the atmosphere,
global temperatures rose by approximately six degrees and
ocean pH dropped sharply, driving up
ocean acidity and causing a mass extinction among single - celled
ocean organisms.
Three
global bleaching events have taken place since the 1980s, including one that is going on right now, as a result of climate
change increasing acidity levels and
temperatures in the world's
oceans.
On shorter time scales, however,
changes in heat storage (i.e.,
ocean heat uptake or release) can affect
global mean
temperature.
ECS is defined in terms of
global mean
temperature change, not separately for land and
ocean.
The diagnostics, which are used to compare model - simulated and observed
changes, are often simple
temperature indices such as the
global mean surface
temperature and
ocean mean warming (Knutti et al., 2002, 2003) or the differential warming between the SH and NH (together with the
global mean; Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001).
The symptoms from those events (huge and rapid carbon emissions, a big rapid jump in
global temperatures, rising sea levels,
ocean acidification, widespread oxygen - starved zones in the
oceans) are all happening today with human - caused climate
change.
Climate scientists would say in response that
changes in
ocean circulation can't sustain a net
change in
global temperature over such a long period (ENSO for example might raise or lower
global temperature on a timescale of one or two years, but over decades there would be roughly zero net
change).
In addition, since the
global surface
temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo
changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the
oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
There are some physics - based theories regarding the nature of climate
change yes, but the ONLY way to test them is on the basis of the sort of evidence that climate scientists have been collecting for many years now, on, for example,
global temperatures,
ocean temperatures, sea level, frequency of drought, hurricanes, rainstorms, etc..
It is no coincidence that shifts in
ocean and atmospheric indices occur at the same time as
changes in the trajectory of
global surface
temperature.
«They have identified human impact through phenomena such as: Transformed patterns of sediment erosion and deposition worldwide; major disturbances to the carbon cycle and
global temperature; wholesale
changes to the world's plants and animals;
ocean acidification.
-- Climate impacts:
global temperatures, ice cap melting,
ocean currents, ENSO, volcanic impacts, tipping points, severe weather events — Environment impacts: ecosystem
changes, disease vectors, coastal flooding, marine ecosystem, agricultural system — Government actions: US political views, world - wide political views, carbon tax / cap - and - trade restrictions, state and city efforts — Reducing GHGs: + electric power systems: fossil fuel use, conservation, solar, wind, geothermal, nuclear, tidal, other + transportation sector: conservation, mass transit, high speed rail, air travel, auto / truck (mileage issues, PHEVs, EVs, biofuels, hydrogen) + architectural structure design: home / office energy use, home / office conservation, passive solar, other
A review of
global ocean temperature observations: Implications for
ocean heat content estimates and climate
change
I particularly enjoyed the slides that, when combined (1) provided an overview of hotter and cooler CO2 molecules as it relates to how they are seen from outer space and from profile — because this will make it easier for me to explain this process to others; (2) walked through the volcanic and solar activity vs assigning importance to CO2
changes — because this another way to help make it clearer, too, but in another way; (3) discussed CO2 induced warming and
ocean rise vs different choices we might make — because this helps point out why every day's delay matters; and (4) showed Figure 1 from William Nordhaus» «Strategies for Control of Carbon Dioxide» and then super-imposed upon that the
global mean
temperature in colors showing pre-paper and post-paper periods — because this helps to show just how far back it was possible to make reasoned projections without the aid of a more nuanced and modern understanding.
Temporarily, you can also store heat in the
ocean or release it, but the scope for
changes in
global mean
temperature through this mechanism is quite limited.
The new research is a regional climate study of historical sea level pressures, winds and
temperatures over the eastern Pacific
Ocean and draws no conclusions about climate
change on a
global scale.
... how sensitive the
global system is to any El Nino type warming or movement toward a
change in Pacific
Ocean temperature states.
Terrell Johnson, reporting on a recent NASA publication concluding that deep
ocean temperatures have not increased since 2005 (http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/deep-
ocean-hasnt-warmed-nasa-20141007): «While the report's authors say the findings do not question the overall science of climate
change, it is the latest in a series of findings that show
global warming to have slowed considerably during the 21st century, despite continued rapid growth in human - produced greenhouse gas emissions during the same time.»
The fundamental reason that CO2 and
global surface
temperature are so highly correlated during comings and going of the the ice ages is that the orbits cause the
temperature change, and then the resulting heating of the
ocean causes it to outgas some CO2 to the atmosphere.
The Nature study is talking about
changes associated with
ocean circulation even while CO2, and the
global imbalance, and
global temperature, is increasing.
[Response: Theoretically you could have a
change in
ocean circulation that could cause a drop in
global mean
temperature even while the total heat content of the climate system increased.
Redistribution of heat (such as vertical transport between the surface and the deeper
ocean) could cause some surface and atmospheric
temperature change that causes some
global average warming or cooling.
McIntyre has a new post where he tries to rescue the previous «projections» — but he confuses the
changes in HadSST (
ocean temperatures, which he is plotting) and the
changes in HadCRUT3 (the
global surface air
temperature anomaly) which is what his projection was for (as can be seen in the figures in the main post).
If La Nina / El Nino can affect
global air
temperatures in a period of a few years, than other
changes in
ocean currents (driven by AGW) can affect
global atmospheric heat content in a few years.
Small
changes in initial conditions drive abrupt and nonlinear
change evident in many of the
global ocean and atmospheric indices — and indeed in the surface
temperature trajectory.
(1) The overall
global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the
ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the lower troposphere.
There is also a natural variability of the climate system (about a zero reference point) that produces El Nino and La Nina effects arising from
changes in
ocean circulation patterns that can make the
global temperature increase or decrease, over and above the
global warming due to CO2.
(8) Since at least 1980
changes in
global temperature, and presumably especially southern
ocean temperature, appear to represent a major control on
changes in atmospheric CO2.»
Small
changes in
global sea level or a rise in
ocean temperatures could cause a breakup of the two buttressing ice shelves.
This is particularly significant because many climate -
change alarmists conjecture that the reason
global temperatures of the 21st century are lower than their faulty climate models originally predicted is that the Earth's
oceans are absorbing all the excess heat.
The study, published in the journal
Global Change Biology, examined the impacts of rising
ocean temperatures,
changes in salinity and currents resulting from a warming climate.
By comparing modelled and observed
changes in such indices, which include the
global mean surface
temperature, the land -
ocean temperature contrast, the
temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the mean magnitude of the annual cycle in
temperature over land and the mean meridional
temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.