«Despite the progress so far, electric vehicles still have a long way to go before reaching a scale that would make a significant dent
in global oil demand growth and greenhouse gas emissions,» said Dr Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency.
On the demand side, oil at $ 80 could
hurt global oil demand growth, which was the tailwind last year to help OPEC significantly reduce the oversupply.
According to a report by OPEC earlier this year, the increase in non-OPEC supply last year was more than twice that
of global oil demand growth.
Oil at $ 80 could also slow down
global oil demand growth, undermining one of the cartel and friends» key assumptions: that robust demand growth will absorb the non-OPEC supply and that demand growth will continue to be strong going forward.
Thus toward 2020, barring a deep global recession,
global oil demand growth will eventually whittle away the inventory surplus and then collide with meager, insufficient supply capacity growth.
Global oil demand growth has been close to 2 million barrels per day, and supplies aren't growing anywhere close to that.
Yet the growth in oil demand from trucks has outpaced all other sectors — including passenger cars, aviation, industry and petrochemical feedstocks — since 2000 and contributed 40 % to
global oil demand growth, a similar contribution as cars.