Yes, alternatives are technically possible, but not at all likely on the scale and timeframes needed if
global oil production declines soon (as is happening for Greater Burgan, the world's second biggest oilfield).
Now comes this fascinating paper in Environmental Science & Technology: «Peak Oil Demand: The Role of Fuel Efficiency and Alternative Fuels in
a Global Oil Production Decline.»
Not exact matches
July 2016
Oil and Gas Prices
Global crude markets showed resilience in June when both Brent and WTI rallied to a 2016 high above $ 51 / bbl, due to continuing outages in Nigeria and Canada, as well as a 1.7 %
decline in U.S.
production.
Despite
declining global economic growth and increased natural gas
production, Saudi Arabia and other
oil - producing nations have managed to maintain the price of crude in the $ 90 - $ 100 range.
The US
oil - rig count plateaued near the highest level in three years and showed signs of
declining in late March (to 797), though it still stood 50 rigs above the year - end 2017 total.2 This contributed to expectations for a further increase in American crude
production, which has topped 10 mb / d each week since early February, when WTI prices began to recede from their intra-quarterly high of US$ 66.14 a barrel.3 The amount of crude in US storage occasionally exceeded weekly estimates given the higher domestic output and fluctuating net import figures, reigniting fears that US
production may thwart OPEC's efforts to clear
global oversupply.
Even with reports of U.S.
oil production driving more than 10 million barrels of
oil a day, the
decline in
global oil stockpile continues to support the market.
Technology and exploitation of unconventional sources can't defer the long - predicted
decline in
global oil production
IN 2007 former US energy secretary James Schlesinger claimed the arguments in favour of peak
oil — the key theory that
global production must peak and then
decline — had been won.
He helped found the Congressional Peak
Oil Caucus, which urged the creation of policies to prepare for a decline in global oil producti
Oil Caucus, which urged the creation of policies to prepare for a
decline in
global oil producti
oil production.
Couple this with a lack of growth in
global supply (despite all the headlines about huge new
oil finds — much of which simply serves to replace
declining production elsewhere), and you have a v supportive (& possibly explosive) price environment for
oil & gas.
Because
global oil demand is increasing,
declining production will soon generate high energy prices, inflation, unemployment, and irreversible economic depression.
Independent studies indicate that
global oil production peaked in 2006 (or will peak within a few years) and will
decline until all recoverable
oil is depleted within several decades.
Their 450 Scenario states among many other requirements that the
global oil demand [or actually
oil production] will have to peak no later than the year 2020 — and will have to
decline to 81 million barrels per day by 2035.
Global oil, gas and coal
production is predicted to irreversibly
decline in the next 10 to 20 years, and severe climate changes are already taking effect around the world.
According to energy investment banker Matthew Simmons and most independent analysts,
global oil production is now
declining, from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015.
e.g. See:
Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near - term peak in global oil production UK Energy Research Centre 2009 Table 3.5 Estimates of production - weighted aggregate decline rates for samples of large post-peak fields (% / year) IEA 5.1 % / year Hook 5.5 % / year CERA 5.8 %
Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near - term peak in global oil production UK Energy Research Centre 2009 Table 3.5 Estimates of production - weighted aggregate decline rates for samples of large post-peak fields (% / year) IEA 5.1 % / year Hook 5.5 % / year CERA 5.8 % / y
Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near - term peak in
global oil production UK Energy Research Centre 2009 Table 3.5 Estimates of production - weighted aggregate decline rates for samples of large post-peak fields (% / year) IEA 5.1 % / year Hook 5.5 % / year CERA 5.8 %
global oil production UK Energy Research Centre 2009 Table 3.5 Estimates of production - weighted aggregate decline rates for samples of large post-peak fields (% / year) IEA 5.1 % / year Hook 5.5 % / year CERA 5.8 % / y
oil production UK Energy Research Centre 2009 Table 3.5 Estimates of
production - weighted aggregate
decline rates for samples of large post-peak fields (% / year) IEA 5.1 % / year Hook 5.5 % / year CERA 5.8 % / year
And the International Monetary Fund has documented that since their peak in July 2008,
oil prices
declined by 69 % as of December 2008, and
global food prices
declined by 33 % during the same period, while U.S. corn
production has remained at 12 billion bushels a month, one - third of which is still used for ethanol
production.
Steep
decline in
oil production Interesting that you blame
global warming hysteria for the demise of the world.
The resurgence in
oil and gas
production from the United States, deep
declines in the cost of renewables and growing electrification are changing the face of the
global energy system and upending traditional ways of meeting energy demand, according to the World Energy Outlook 2017.
Increased
production and reduced demand due to slowing
global growth led to the
decline which saw
oil prices fall from $ 110 per barrel to a 13 - year low $ 27 per barrel in early 2016, with recovery to just $ 43 / bbl in July.