Using instead the 4.0 + / -0.8 C warming estimate from the Annan and Hargreaves (2013; doi: 10.5194 / cp -9-367-2013)
global reconstruction of temperature changes at the LGM implies an even lower ECS best estimate, of 1.56 C.
Finally,
a global reconstruction of sea level (Jevrejeva et al. in Geophys Res Lett 35: L08715, 2008) and a reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index (Luterbacher et al. in Geophys Res Lett 26:2745 — 2748, 1999) are analyzed and compared: both sequences cover about three centuries from 1700 to 2000.
«Spatially resolved
global reconstructions of annual surface temperature patterns over the past six centuries are based on the multivariate calibration of widely distributed high - resolution proxy climate indicators.
All of this work will soon be advanced enormously by a major new collaborative international working group led by Kathleen Morrison, Land Use 6000 (LU6K), which aims to provide empirical
global reconstructions of land use and land cover over the past 6000 years and earlier as part of the Land Cover 6000 project (LC6K) of PAGES.
If you accept them then you must accept that
the global reconstructions of temperature from proxies all indicate that today's warming is unusual and more extreme.
Not exact matches
The study was based on
reconstructions and climate modelling
of a period
of global warming 56 million years ago.
A new study linking paleoclimatology — the
reconstruction of past
global climates — with historical analysis by researchers at Yale and other institutions shows a link between environmental stress and its impact on the economy, political stability, and war - fighting capacity
of ancient Egypt.
With a
global seismic tomography model that makes use
of seismic waves to map the internal structure
of the Earth's mantle, Schellart and Spakman were able to identify the fossil slab structure below central and south - eastern Australia at a location and depth predicted by the
reconstructions.
Building on this study, the team intend to produce a new
reconstruction of global ice volume across the last glacial cycle, which will help to validate their proposition that certain boundaries can define windows
of instability within the climate system.
A LAB
reconstruction of the 1918 flu virus, cause
of the deadliest
global pandemic ever recorded, is showing frightening similarities with H5N1, the bird flu that killed dozens
of people across east Asia last year.
The committee has prepared a report that, in my view, provides policy makers and the scientific community with a critical view
of surface temperature
reconstructions and how they are evolving over time, as well as a good sense
of how important our understanding
of the paleoclimate temperature record is within the overall state
of scientific knowledge on
global climate change.
The
reconstruction produced by Dr. Mann and his colleagues was just one step in a long process
of research, and it is not (as sometimes presented) a clinching argument for anthropogenic
global warming, but rather one
of many independent lines
of research on
global climate change.
Incidentally, as I see it, your
reconstruction of Manns data showing the 15th century to be warmer than now is even more damming than Manns original construct, as it indicates a gradual decline in
global temperatures until 1850, before human influence reversed that trend.
Some studies have attempted to estimate the statistical relationship between temperature and
global sea level seen in the period for which tide gauge records exist (the last 2 - 3 centuries) and then, using geological
reconstructions of past temperature changes, extrapolate backward («hindcast») past sea - level changes.
Nature published a great new
reconstruction of global temperatures over the past 2 million years today.
The «zoo»
of global sea level curves calculated from tide gauge data has grown — tomorrow a new
reconstruction of our US colleagues around Carling Hay from Harvard University will appear in Nature (Hay et al. 2015).
He helped coordinate an international consortium that assembled «A
global multiproxy database for temperature
reconstructions of the Common Era», which was published on 11 July in the journal Scientific Data.
(And the 800 BCE date is not because the rate
of global sea - level rise was probably faster before then, but simply that the
reconstruction quality isn't good enough before then to have the same level
of confidence.)
Global temperature
reconstructions also tend to dampen the amplitude
of these smaller events.
It's a cultural response to its own environment that acts as a metaphor for a bigger
global geopolitical crisis point, suggesting a new period
of reconstruction, a digitally - conscious Modernism as a form
of survivalism for the post-truth era.
The result
of Ghost
of Concordia is a shared gaze: The digital
reconstruction and documentation
of an environment that you can't find on Google Maps, the captured motion
of people — now digital Ghosts - that were once
global and are now nowhere to be found, surrounded by virtual artifacts that called Cea's attention for their ambiguity within the narrative
of the newsreel.
The result was an aesthetic paradigm shift that would impact the international art scene during the years
of reconstruction following the
global devastation
of WWII.
They vary from an attempt at
reconstruction (When Attitudes Become Form, Venice, 2013), which entails the impossible endeavor
of providing the viewer with an authentic experience in the form
of an archival documentation exhibition with the aim
of updating our (own) past (Recollections), to a much more multifaceted or «corrected» image
of the original, such as Jens Hoffman's Other Primary Structures, which also included sculptures by artists working in the 1960s in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Africa, and which reexamined the exhibition
of 1966 from a
global point
of view.
Organized by Independent Curators International, «Beyond Preconceptions» attempts a
reconstruction of context as only grand - scale exhibitions such as «Out
of Actions» (2000) at Museum
of Contemporary Art, Los Angeles, or the Queens Museum's «
Global Conceptualism: Points
of Origin, 1950s - 1980s» (1999) can achieve.
Proxy - based
reconstructions of hemispheric and
global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia Michael E. Mann, Zhihua Zhang, Malcolm K. Hughes, Raymond S. Bradley, Sonya K. Miller, Scott Rutherford, and Fenbiao Ni PNAS September 9, 2008 vol.
Given the uncertainties, the SH and
global reconstructions are compatible with the possibility
of warmth similar to the most recent decade during brief intervals
of the past 1,500 years...»
This question presumes that the inputs for such a
reconstruction are obtainable; it also presumes that particular aspects
of the previous ice age (s) are relevant to
global warming scenarios.
So does this sort
of phenomenon affect the paleo -
reconstruction of global SSTs?
However, atmospheric CO2 content plays an important internal feedback role.Orbital - scale variability in CO2 concentrations over the last several hundred thousand years covaries (Figure 5.3) with variability in proxy records including
reconstructions of global ice volume (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005), climatic conditions in central Asia (Prokopenko et al., 2006), tropical (Herbert et al., 2010) and Southern Ocean SST (Pahnke et al., 2003; Lang and Wolff, 2011), Antarctic temperature (Parrenin et al., 2013), deep - ocean temperature (Elder eld et al., 2010), biogeochemical conditions in the Northet al., 2008).
As far as this historic period is concerned, the
reconstruction of past temperatures based on deep boreholes in deep permafrost is one
of the best past temperature proxies we have (for the
global regions with permafrost — polar regions and mountainous regions)-- as a signal
of average temperatures it's even more accurate than historic direct measurements
of the air temperature, since the earth's upper crust acts as a near perfect conservator
of past temperatures — given that no water circulation takes place, which is precisely the case in permafrost where by definition the water is frozen.
For the past 120 years the proxy
reconstruction nicely matches the Jevrejeva et al. (2006) and Church & White (2006)
global tide gauge
reconstructions — see above and Fig. 6
of paper.)
Oerlemans's
reconstruction of global temperatures (largely from mid latitude glaciers) is entirely independent
of the much talked about temperature records from other paleoclimate proxy data (e.g. Moberg and others, Mann and others, Crowley and others).
[Response: There was little (or even no) choice here since we needed a
global land + ocean
reconstruction (i.e. not just northern hemisphere, and not just land — both
of these would have been useless).
The famous conclusion
of the IPCC, «The balance
of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on
global climate», does not depend on any
reconstruction for the past millennium.
Even putting aside the OHC data and fingerprinting, there is absolutely no evidence in model simulations (or in prevailing
reconstructions of the Holocene), that an unforced climate would exhibit half - century timescale
global temperature swings
of order ~ 1 C. I don't see a good theoretical reason why this should be the case, but since Judith lives on «planet observations» it should be a pause for thought.
Why are there at all different
reconstructions of the
global sea level history?
Firstly paleoclimate is not driven in any way by CO2 but by the proximity
of planet Earth to supernova which Svensmark has helpfully converted into a nice graph that is a remarkable fit to
global temperature
reconstructions.
If one takes the MBH98 / 99
reconstruction as base, the variation in the pre-industrial period was ~ 0.2 K,
of which less than 0.1 K (in average) from volcanic eruptions, the rest mostly from solar (I doubt that land use changes had much influence on
global temperatures).
But I'm less concerned now that I have read the paper over more carefully, because I think that Figure 1a and 1b give a pretty good sense
of what features
of higher resolution
reconstructions (specifically, our ’08
global reconstruction which is shown) are potentially captured.
However, since their methodology suppresses most
of the high frequency variability, one needs to be cautious when making comparisons between their
reconstruction and relatively rapid events like the
global warming
of the last century.
In November 2005, Representative Sherwood Boehlert (R - NY) requested that the National Academy
of Sciences (NAS) convene a panel
of independent experts to investigate Professor Mann's seminal 1999
reconstruction of the
global surface temperature over the past 1,000 years.
As I demonstrated in my previous article, CET is considered by many to be some sort
of reasonable indicator for
global temperatures, although as Hubert Lamb remarked on temperatures derived from trends and
reconstructions in general;
Finds a MASLT is about 1 mm / yr in
global sea level
reconstructions that is more than half
of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century
I know all this has been covered before, but I think everyone should keep in mind that the statistical argument in the end mostly boils down to the pre-eminence
of a handful
of high altitude North American tree - ring samples in the
reconstruction of global temperature over the last thousand years.
However, models would need to underestimate variability by factors
of over two in their standard deviation to nullify detection
of greenhouse gases in near - surface temperature data (Tett et al., 2002), which appears unlikely given the quality
of agreement between models and observations at
global and continental scales (Figures 9.7 and 9.8) and agreement with inferences on temperature variability from NH temperature
reconstructions of the last millennium.
As I said in my reply to Wegman, ordinarily I would agree with him that science shouldn't be conducted through blogs, but in the case
of climate science an opinion about
global warming in general, or the validity
of multiproxy
reconstructions or climate models in particular seems to constitute for some a political viewpoint that must be either trumpeted from the rooftops or suppressed by any means possible regardless
of its scientific merit.
In that paper, we discussed all 19
of the proxy - based
global temperature
reconstructions of the last millennium, including the Mann «hockey stick».
Here's a superimposition
of numerous
global, hemispheric, and regional temperature
reconstructions for the last 2,000 years, together with an average.
-LSB-...] Freedom
of Information Act request for thousands
of emails from Dr. Michael Mann, creator
of the disputed «hockey stick»
reconstruction of historical
global temperatures.
Using the same method that I had used earlier for the same years on both data sets, I compared the total numbers
of sunspots in post-1975 years to the 200 years pre-1975, and discovered a surprising result, given all the hype: the GSN
reconstruction makes no discernable difference over the SIDC number post-1975 as pertaining to the solar cause
of global warming.