"Global reflation" refers to a situation where countries around the world experience a simultaneous increase in economic growth and inflation. It means that the global economy is picking up momentum after a period of sluggishness. This can be seen as a positive sign for businesses, as it indicates increased consumer spending and potentially higher profits.
Full definition
Eurozone inflation expectations have perked up from depressed levels, and we
see global reflation reinforcing Europe's comeback.
With regards to EM equities in particular, we like them because we see companies improving profitability and benefiting
from global reflation.
Other signs
of global reflation include a rebound in inflation expectations from mid-2016 lows, a bottoming out in core inflation and wages, and a synchronized pick - up in economic activity indicators and corporate earnings estimates.
We believe 2018 will prove to be a very important year for investors, not only because of the unprecedented level of euphoria surrounding the U.S. equity market, but more so due to the ongoing
global reflation trade that both speculators and investors are piling into.
Over the past five months, our broader G7 GPS indicator has consistently signaled a brighter economic outlook than the consensus view of economists — just
as global reflation has become a more dominant theme in the markets — suggesting more scope for upgrades.
BlackRock's base case for 2017 is that U.S. -
led global reflation will accelerate, bond yields will gradually move higher and returns will remain low, as we write in our 2017 Global Investment Outlook.
Other signs of
global reflation include a rebound in inflation expectations from mid-2016 lows, a bottoming out in core inflation and wages, and a synchronized pick - up in economic activity indicators and corporate earnings estimates.
Spreading global reflation is driving a long - awaited rebound in global corporate earnings, with the sharpest recoveries seen outside the U.S..
On the one
hand global reflation and commodities markets are tightening, which has tended to support the Canadian dollar.
We believe they should disproportionately benefit
from global reflation, as well as a potential pickup in Japanese growth ahead.
Although Pictet Wealth Management does not expect a significant acceleration in real global economic growth next year, it believes 2017 will see an upturn in price pressures that spark a rise in nominal GDP growth and provides momentum
for global reflation.
But the underlying economic expectations that steeper yield curves imply is
of global reflation — higher growth and with it higher inflation.
BlackRock's base case for 2017 is that U.S. -
led global reflation will accelerate, bond yields will gradually move higher and returns will remain low, as we write in our 2017 Global Investment Outlook.
We
see global reflation and a weak yen propelling Japanese stocks higher on a currency - hedged basis.
Global reflation, combined with U.S. - dollar weakness, created investor complacency that ideal liquidity conditions would continue indefinitely.
Bottom line: We see the current bout of reflation having a bigger impact boosting activity in China and EMs, helping
the global reflation story play out for longer.
We believe that China is key to
the global reflation story playing out for longer.
Global reflation is gaining traction.
We are in the early stages of
a global reflation cycle that started in mid-2016.
Settle in and get comfortable — even as
the global reflation story plays out, we expect the Bank to be cautious.
The global reflation trade is in full swing, the return of cash flow to shareholders is at a record pace and that is why, in my opinion, the U.S. equity markets are set to extend the current rally well into 2019.
Global reflation and ample liquidity have consistently trumped politics in recent years.
Global reflation, a strong earnings recovery and attractive equity risk premiums also should support international stocks.
Global reflation should be positive for emerging market economies, yet the potential fallout from a stronger U.S. dollar keeps us cautiously selective.
We believe they should disproportionately benefit from
global reflation, as well as a potential pickup in Japanese growth ahead.
With regards to EM equities in particular, we like them because we see companies improving profitability and benefiting from
global reflation.
We see
global reflation and a weak yen propelling Japanese stocks higher on a currency - hedged basis.
We believe now is a good time to ready bond portfolios for
global reflation.