Figure 5: Tilted
global sea level data produced by Monckton and Mörner in the SPPI Monthly CO2 Report for January 2011
Figure 1 shows the mean
global sea level data whose accuracy Mörner denies:
Global sea level data shows that sea level rise has been increasing since 1880 while future sea level rise predictions are based on physics, not statistics.
Not exact matches
The study, published in Nature Communications uses newly available
data and advanced models to improve
global predictions when it comes to extreme
sea levels.
Dr. Willis studies
sea level rise driven by human - caused
global warming, using
data measurements taken from space.
Whereas most studies look to the last 150 years of instrumental
data and compare it to projections for the next few centuries, we looked back 20,000 years using recently collected carbon dioxide,
global temperature and
sea level data spanning the last ice age.
So if you could then bring all these together — parts per millions, the
global forcing and
sea -
level rise — based on the paleoclimate record, which is, kind of, the really more a recent
data that the new view is built on.
Data published yesterday by scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, and colleagues revealed that Earth's ice sheets are melting at a rate that could mean more than 32 centimeters of
global sea level rise by 2050.
Eelco Rohling of the UK National Oceanography Centre at the University of Southampton and colleagues reconstructed
sea level fluctuations over the last 520,000 years and compared this to
global climate and carbon dioxide
levels data for the same period.
The major carbon producers
data can be applied to climate models to derive the carbon input's effect on climate change impacts including
global average temperature,
sea level rise, and extreme events such as heat waves.
Modeling
Sea -
Level Rise Effects on Population using
Global Elevation and Land - Cover
Data E. Lynn Usery (2007) http://cegis.usgs.gov/pdf/aag-2007.pdf
These
data suggest that we can expect a
global sea level rise of 2.3 m per 1 °C of warming within the next 2000 years: well within societal timeframes.
In the first comprehensive satellite study of its kind, a University of Colorado at Boulder - led team used NASA
data to calculate how much Earth's melting land ice is adding to
global sea level rise.
By now there are enough local
data curves from different parts of the world to create a
global sea level curve.
The «zoo» of
global sea level curves calculated from tide gauge
data has grown — tomorrow a new reconstruction of our US colleagues around Carling Hay from Harvard University will appear in Nature (Hay et al. 2015).
Fig. 1 Reconstruction of the
global sea -
level evolution based on proxy
data from different parts of the world.
It's a long paper with a long title: «Ice melt,
sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate
data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 oC
global warming could be dangerous».
«Ice melt,
sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate
data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2o C
global warming could be dangerous»
The full title is: «Ice melt,
sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate
data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 o C
global warming could be dangerous ``.
By now there are enough local
data curves from different parts of the world to create a
global sea level curve.
In our paper published last night in ERL we show the newer Church & White
data set with less smoothing in Fig. 3 (orange line), and you can see it is more «wiggly» — hard to tell whether these wiggles are true oscillations in
global sea level or again an effect of the limited number of gauges.
Modeling
Sea -
Level Rise Effects on Population using
Global Elevation and Land - Cover
Data E. Lynn Usery (2007) http://cegis.usgs.gov/pdf/aag-2007.pdf
Note that this sampling noise in the tide gauge
data most likely comes from the water sloshing around in the ocean under the influence of winds etc., which looks like
sea -
level change if you only have a very limited number of measurement points, although this process can not actually change the true
global - mean
sea level.
If you want a really really simple statistical climate model, try correlating
global mean annual temperature & / or
sea level with the CO2
data from Mauna Loa.
Personally I think the approach taken by Church and White (2006, 2011) probably comes closest to the true
global average
sea level, due to the method they used to combine the tide gauge
data.
Fig. 1 Reconstruction of the
global sea -
level evolution based on proxy
data from different parts of the world.
Rate of
global sea -
level rise based on the
data of Church & White (2006), and
global mean temperature
data of GISS, both smoothed.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal
data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational
data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and
global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
For that purpose we use
global grids of thermosteric
sea level data, available over 1950 — 2003.
On July 23, I wrote about the rocky rollout, prior to peer review, of «Ice Melt,
Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate
Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2 °C
Global Warming is Highly Dangerous.»
In order to truly call
global warming into question, one would also have to prove satellite
data, borehole analysis, glacial melt,
sea ice melt,
sea level rise, proxy
data, and rising ocean -LSB-...]
The objective of our study was to quantify the consistency of near -
global and regional integrals of ocean heat content and steric
sea level (from in situ temperature and salinity
data), total
sea level (from satellite altimeter
data) and ocean mass (from satellite gravimetry
data) from an Argo perspective.
It's an exciting time, though, with all this new
data about
global sea temperature,
sea level and other features of climate....
Nevertheless such variability induced by winds or currents may give a false impression of
global sea level fluctuations in analyses of tide gauge
data.
It uses the satellite
data of
sea level to determine the typical variability patterns of the
sea surface and thus to establish the link between the locally measured tide gauge values and the
global sea level.
«The rate of
global sea level rise is accelerating as ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland melt, an analysis of the first 25 years of satellite
data confirms.»
The contribution from glaciers and ice caps (not including Greenland and Antarctica), on the other hand, is computed from a simple empirical formula linking
global mean temperature to mass loss (equivalent to a rate of
sea level rise), based on observed
data from 1963 to 2003.
Looking at
global data (rather than tide gauge records just from the U.S.) show that
sea level rise has been increasing since 1880.
Satellite observations available since the early 1990s provide more accurate
sea level data with nearly
global coverage.
Projections for
global sea level rise by 2100 range from 8 inches to 6.6 feet above 1992
levels, though the lowest end of this range is a simple extension of historic
sea level rise — and recent
data indicate this rate has nearly doubled in recent years.
Recently, the 2010
global temperature and satellite
sea level data have become available.
These climate - related land storage effects could be significant for
global sea -
levels, though unfortunately there seem to be very few direct experimental measurements of the factors involved, and so the only studies of these effects seem to have been from computer modelling of
data from weather
data «reanalysis» models (e.g., ERA - 40).
The main frequency in the
sea level data from the University of Colorado is also visible in satellite thermometers like UAH
global data, but it seems that the
sea level data are not as smeared as the land
data may.
Several other satellite altimeters have also been launched, and the
data from these have been used to estimate
global mean
sea level trends since 1993.
Fig. 2
Global sea level from tide gauges (red) and satellite altimeter
data (blue, with linear trend line).
But, it seems in a race to find evidence of the
global sea level rises predicted by man - made
global warming models, a number of researchers have underestimated how problematic the
data is.
Individual model parameterizations were constrained by paleontological
data, and the overall modeled relationship between
global temperature and
sea level matched well against records from four previous warm periods: preindustrial, the last interglacial, marine isotope stage 11, and the mid-Pliocene.
Through modeling and with support from paleontological
data, Levermann et al. (10) found a roughly linear
global mean
sea -
level increase of 2.3 m per 1 °C warming within a time - envelope of the next 2,000 y.
Whatever the true linear increasing rate of the present
global sea level rise is, a look on the
data after subtracting a linear function of +3.2 mm per year from the Colorado
sea level data shows a remarkable oscillation of about ~ 6.15 periods per year, because this is twice the synodic frequency of Mercury, Earth and Jupiter, with the frequencies of Mercury (4.15204 y ^ -1), Earth (0.9998 y ^ -1) and Jupiter (0.084317 y ^ -1): F = 2 * (4.15204 — 0.99998 — 0.
Despite the various problems with the tidal gauge
data, it is possible that the various estimates of
global sea level trends of 1 - 2 or maybe 2 - 3 mm / year might coincidentally be correct.