Climate Central scientists and statisticians made these calculations based on an average of
global temperature data reported by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Not exact matches
The graphic displays monthly
global temperature data from the U.K. Met Office and charts how each month compares to the average for the same period from 1850 - 1900, the same baselines used in the most recent
report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
At best, studies seem to indicate it might be.5 C. Based on recent conversations, there does not seem to be much confidence in what gets
reported as overall
global october
temperatures given the lack of QA on incoming
data.
In my experimentation with techniques to «showcase» the robustness of the
global - average
temperature results, I found that it is also important to show the actual number of stations
reporting data for each year.
Figure 3 Comparison of
global temperature (average over 5
data sets, including 2 satellite series) with the projections from the 3rd and 4 IPCC
reports.
«Another recent paper used a different NOAA ocean surface
temperature data set to find that since 2003 the
global average ocean surface
temperature has been rising at a rate that is an order of magnitude smaller than the rate of increase
reported in Karl's paper.»
All the
data sources have now
reported for
global May
temperatures with Hadley coming in today.
Using
data cited in Exxon's 2014
report prepared in response to shareholders questions, Energy and Carbon — Managing the Risks, Tri-State calculated that the increase in
global temperature by 2040 will be 2.4 degrees, a significantly higher and more threatening level than 2 degrees.
This represents an about 53 % administrative
temperature increase over this period, meaning that more than half of the
reported (by GISS)
global temperature increase from January 1910 to January 2000 is due to administrative changes of the original
data since May 2008.
The people in charge of the surface stations and the
data adjusters don't seem to understand that from a perspective of the climate history having any real utility in indicating a «
global temperature trend» their sensors need to
report the same values regardless of a change in technology.
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a
report Reconciling Observations of
Global Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface
temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 years»
In its first assessment
report, the IPCC provided no new
data regarding the cause of the
temperature increase in the late 1970s or the relationship between increasing CO2 and
global warming.
As
reported in Roy's post, these plots by John are based upon
data from the KNMI Climate Explorer with a comparison of 44 climate models versus the UAH and RSS satellite observations for
global lower tropospheric
temperature variations, for the period 1979 - 2012 from the satellites, and for 1975 — 2025 for the models.
«Not only is the
data used in the
report flawed and suspect, but even more egregiously, the IPCC authors — very few of whom indeed are scientists — refused to consult with scientists who are skeptical of the IPCC's defining hypothesis: that the Earth faces a crisis from rising
global temperatures and that human activity played a significant role.»
«Why I Spend So Much Time and Effort on Climate Skepticism New Research
Report on the Validity of
Global Average Surface
Temperature Data and EPA's GHG Endangerment Finding»
In the post Alarmism Cranked Up to Absurd Level, we discussed the misleading media
reports about the temporary February 2016 El Niño - related uptick in monthly
global surface
temperature data from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies.
The
global warming rate at the stations used in the analysis, using all days»
data, is the same as that
reported using all available stations by Jones, P.D. and A. Moberg, «Hemispheric and large - scale surface air
temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001», Journal of Climate 16: 206 - 223 (2003).
Parker (2004) segmented observed surface
temperature data into lighter and stronger wind terciles in order to assess whether the
reported large - scale
global - averaged
temperature increases are attributable to urban warming.
All of these characteristics (except for the ocean
temperature) have been used in SAR and TAR IPCC (Houghton et al. 1996; 2001)
reports for model -
data inter-comparison: we considered as tolerable the following intervals for the annual means of the following climate characteristics which encompass corresponding empirical estimates:
global SAT 13.1 — 14.1 °C (Jones et al. 1999); area of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere 6 — 14 mil km2 and in the Southern Hemisphere 6 — 18 mil km2 (Cavalieri et al. 2003); total precipitation rate 2.45 — 3.05 mm / day (Legates 1995); maximum Atlantic northward heat transport 0.5 — 1.5 PW (Ganachaud and Wunsch 2003); maximum of North Atlantic meridional overturning stream function 15 — 25 Sv (Talley et al. 2003), volume averaged ocean
temperature 3 — 5 °C (Levitus 1982).
In contrast, the IPCC
report (1), which also used the approach in (25),
reported no statistically significant trends for 1998 — 2012 in any of the three primary
global surface
temperature data sets.»
For example, the HadCRUT3, GISS, etc.
data sets of annual mean
global temperature each
report global temperature changes as differences from a 30 - year average.
HadCRUT3, GISS, etc.
data sets
report annual
global temperature (i.e. climate
data obtained over each of a series of years: one year climate
data) but often add 5 or 10 year running means to graphical presentations of their
data.
The paper then compares the
global surface
temperature data (with these three influences both included and removed) to the envelope of climate model
temperature projections in both the 2001 and 2007 IPCC
reports (Figure 2).
The Times of London had a blockbuster of an item in its
reporting of ClimateGate: The Met Office plans to re-examine 160 years of
temperature data after admitting that public confidence in the science on man - made
global warming has been shattered by leaked e-mails.
Global terrestrial
temperature data are gravely compromised because more than three - quarters of the 6,000 stations that once existed are no longer having their
reports included in the database.
f anybody is still in any doubt that it is UNSCIENTIFIC to make claims about hottest years, without taking into account error bars, I would advise what the World Meteorological Organisation had to say on the issue in their
report on
global temperatures for 2006: «All
temperature values have uncertainties, which arise mainly from gaps in
data coverage.
Several organizations worldwide collect and
report global average
temperature data for each month.
If anybody is still in any doubt that it is UNSCIENTIFIC to make claims about hottest years, without taking into account error bars, I would advise what the World Meteorological Organisation had to say on the issue in their
report on
global temperatures for 2006: «All
temperature values have uncertainties, which arise mainly from gaps in
data coverage.
Global terrestrial
temperature data are gravely compromised because more than three - quarters of the 6,000 stations that once existed are no longer
reporting.
What interests me in regard to accelerated anthropogenic ocean acidification and
global temperature rise, which are being monitored by instrumentation worldwide, are the vast amounts of
data reported and the longitudinal studies done by glaciologists, marine biologists, chemical oceanographers, botanists, climatologists, reef specialists, and their colleagues in other scientific disciplines.
Now, given that the least significant digit of the input
data is integer 1, or for later
data integer 5, then how do you calculate a «result» based on this
data has a GREATER accuracy than the input
data — specifically, the claim that this calculated «
global mean
temperature» has increased by fractions of a degree celsius, and typically
reported to the 0.00 degree accuracy.
The UK Times Online
reports an explosive admission coming forth from the CRU in the aftermath of the ClimateGate revelations (via Memeorandum): SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw
temperature data on which their predictions of
global warming are based.
The same Bureau, however, is happy to use that
data for
reporting global temperatures.
They found that the warming in the
data - sparse regions was progressing faster than the
global average (especially during the past couple of years) and that when they included the
data that they derived for these regions in the computation of the
global average
temperature, they found the
global trend was higher than previously
reported — just how much higher depended on the period over which the trend was calculated.
«Working with
data pertaining to 7450 cardiovascular - related deaths that occurred within Budapest, Hungary, between 1995 and 2004 — where the deceased were «medico - legally autopsied» — Toro et al. looked for potential relationships between daily maximum, minimum and mean
temperature, air humidity, air pressure, wind speed,
global radiation and daily numbers of the heart - related deaths... scientists
report and restate their primary finding numerous times throughout their paper, writing that (1) «both the maximum and the minimum daily
temperatures tend to be lower when more death cases occur in a day,» (2) «on the days with four or more death cases, the daily maximum and minimum
temperatures tend to be lower than on days without any cardiovascular death events,» (3) «the largest frequency of cardiovascular death cases was detected in cold and cooling weather conditions,» (4) «we found a significant negative relationship between
temperature and cardiovascular mortality,» (5) «the analysis of 6 - hour change of air pressure suggests that more acute or chronic vascular death cases occur during increasing air pressure conditions (implying cold weather fronts),» (6) «we found a high frequency of cardiovascular death in cold weather,» (7) «a significant negative relationship was detected between daily maximum [and] minimum
temperature [s] and the number of sudden cardiovascular death cases,» and (8) «a significant negative correlation was detected between daily mean
temperature and cardiovascular mortality.»
As to the ethics of climate disaster researchers, and the credibility of their models,
data and
reports, ClimateGate emails reveal that researchers used various «tricks» to mix datasets and «hide the decline» in average
global temperatures since 1998; colluded to keep skeptical scientific papers out of peer - reviewed journals; deleted potentially damaging or incriminating emails; and engaged in other practices designed to advance manmade climate change alarms.
The Telegraph
reports on a Russian claim that British climate scientists have deliberately cherry picked
data from Russian
temperature station to exaggerate the case for anthropogenic
global warming, Dec. 16, 2009.
In its 2001
report on
global climate, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations prominently featured the «Hockey Stick», a chart showing
global temperature data over the past 1,000 years.
«Over the past 20 years,» a group reviewing the
data reported in 2007, «all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth's climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in
global mean
temperatures.»
This interactive shows just how warm average
global temperatures have been over the past three decades, particularly on a backdrop of warming that extends back several decades, based on
data reported in a recent WMO
report.
This honest scientific approach to evaluating
global temperatures has exposed the fraudulent contentions of both the 2001IPCC TAR and the 2007IPCC 4AR in that the BEST
data shows that there was no
global warming since at least 2001 so both these
reports claiming catastrophic
global warming projections were presented after
global warming had already ended!