Sentences with phrase «global temperature observations»

Earlier this year, a comparison was done using the GISS global temperature observations dataset versus an earlier version of the NASA / GISS computer climate model output, as of 2015 year - end.

Judging solely based on global temperature observations is pretty crude.

For example, Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) used a semi-empirical method linking temperature changes to sea level rise, which they validated by comparing observed sea level to reconstructed sea level calculated from global temperature observations from 1880 to 2000.

The striking consistency between the time series of observed average global temperature observations and simulated values with both natural and anthropogenic forcing (Figure 9.5) was instrumental in convincing me (and presumably others) of the IPCC's attribution argument.

Near - term projections of global average temperature, updated with latest global temperature observations and forecasts.

Together the four influences explain 76 % (r2) of the variance in the global temperature observations.»

As a consequence, their results are strongly influenced by the low increase in observed warming during the past decade (about 0.05 °C / decade in the 1998 — 2012 period compared to about 0.12 °C / decade from 1951 to 2012, see IPCC 2013), and therewith possibly also by the incomplete coverage of global temperature observations (Cowtan and Way 2013).

Not exact matches

Using global climate models and NASA satellite observations of Earth's energy budget from the last 15 years, the study finds that a warming Earth is able to restore its temperature equilibrium through complex and seemingly paradoxical changes in the atmosphere and the way radiative heat is transported.

Rising temperatures have caused the amount of Arctic sea ice to shrink dramatically since global observations began in the 1970s.

Smith, T.M. and R.W. Reynolds, 2005: A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880 - 1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021 - 2036.

Instead, the web special opened with «Estimates of future global temperatures based on recent observations must account for the differing characteristics of each important driver of recent climate change», which sounds a bit ho - hum, if not, well, duh?

Various global temperature projections by mainstream climate scientists and models, and by climate contrarians, compared to observations by NASA GISS.

Most of the focus has been on the global mean temperature trend in the models and observations (it would certainly be worthwhile to look at some more subtle metrics — rainfall, latitudinal temperature gradients, Hadley circulation etc. but that's beyond the scope of this post).

A very recent study by Saba et al. (2015) specifically analyzed sea surface temperatures off the US east coast in observations and a suite of global warming runs with climate models.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1 Global satellite observations show the sea surface temperature (SST) increasing since the 1970s in all ocean basins, while the net air — sea heat flux Q decreases.

However, comparison of the global, annual mean time series of near - surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.

The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising mean sea level.

We use simple representations of the carbon cycle and global temperature, consistent with observations, to simulate transient global temperature and assess carbon emission scenarios that could keep global climate near the Holocene range.

With these modifications, they found they were able to simulate global temperature and precipitation patterns in line with observations.

global average sfc T anomalies [as] indicative of anomalies in outgoing energy... is not well supported over the historical temperature record in the model ensemble or more recent satellite observations

* However, the same panel then concluded that «the warming trend in global - mean surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.

Global warming deniers * pull similar dirty tricks with the comparison of global temperature with model projections — for example, by plotting only the tropical mid-troposphere, and by comparing observations with the projections of scenarios which are furthest from reGlobal warming deniers * pull similar dirty tricks with the comparison of global temperature with model projections — for example, by plotting only the tropical mid-troposphere, and by comparing observations with the projections of scenarios which are furthest from reglobal temperature with model projections — for example, by plotting only the tropical mid-troposphere, and by comparing observations with the projections of scenarios which are furthest from reality.

Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations oh hemispheric temperature and global ocean heat content.

Although some earlier work along similar lines had been done by other paleoclimate researchers (Ed Cook, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa, Ray Bradley, Malcolm Hughes, and Henry Diaz being just a few examples), before Mike, no one had seriously attempted to use all the available paleoclimate data together, to try to reconstruct the global patterns of climate back in time before the start of direct instrumental observations of climate, or to estimate the underlying statistical uncertainties in reconstructing past temperature changes.

You can also account for possible errors in the amplitudes of the external forcing and the model response by scaling the signal patterns to best match the observations without influencing the attribution from fingerprinting methods, and this provides a more robust framework for attributing signals than simply looking at the time history of global temperature in models and obs and seeing if they match up or not.

While land surface observations go back hundreds of years in a few places, data of sufficient coverage for estimating global temperature have been available only since the end of the 19th century.

It is predicated on observations and established science — that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, that humans are increasing CO2 in the atmosphere and that doubling CO2 will raise global temperatures by about 3 degrees.

This was one of the motivations for our study out this week in Nature Climate Change (England et al., 2014) With the global - average surface air temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics of the slowdown in warming seen in the observations during 2001 - 2013.

A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change

If the predicted cooling by la Nina had not occurred then 2008 would probably have been the same temperature (given the uncertainties) as every year since 2001 and that in itself would require explanation.I am broadly in favour of the global warmingCO2 hypothesis but I know it is just that, a hypothesis — and that needs testing against real observations in the physical world.

The study starts with observations of eroding ice sheets spreading, cooler freshwater at both ends of the planet and geological hints of tempestuous conditions toward the end of the Eemian, that last interval between ice ages when global temperatures and seas were higher than now.

Instead, the web special opened with «Estimates of future global temperatures based on recent observations must account for the differing characteristics of each important driver of recent climate change», which sounds a bit ho - hum, if not, well, duh?

Even putting aside the OHC data and fingerprinting, there is absolutely no evidence in model simulations (or in prevailing reconstructions of the Holocene), that an unforced climate would exhibit half - century timescale global temperature swings of order ~ 1 C. I don't see a good theoretical reason why this should be the case, but since Judith lives on «planet observations» it should be a pause for thought.

Thus, given the height and value of the emission temperature, we can get a simple estimate for the surface temperature: 255K + 5.5 km * 6K / km = 288K (= 15oC; close to the global mean estimated from observations given by NCDC of ~ 14oC).

See the observations in Roemmich & Gilson (2009)-- The 2004 - 2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the global ocean from the Argo program.

You stated: «Thus, given the height and value of the emission temperature, we can get a simple estimate for the surface temperature: 255K + 5.5 km * 6K / km = 288K (= 15oC; close to the global mean estimated from observations given by NCDC of ~ 14oC).»

Most of the focus has been on the global mean temperature trend in the models and observations (it would certainly be worthwhile to look at some more subtle metrics — rainfall, latitudinal temperature gradients, Hadley circulation etc. but that's beyond the scope of this post).

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.

One thing that was not clear, was whether the analysis, that involved both observed temperatures from the HadCRUT4 dataset and global climate models, took into account the fact that the observations do not cover 100 % of Earth's surface (see RC post «Mind the Gap!»).

Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content

If observations do not support code predictions — like more extreme weather, or rapidly rising global temperatures — Feynman has told us what conclusions to draw about the theory.»

that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.that century - scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.»

I suspect that it looked OK in your view or you didn't check; «the paper i cited talks of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little Ice Age was global in extent, and that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.

The hottest topic in climate research is the observation that global average surface temperature, as well as satellite observations of temperatures in the atmosphere, has shown little or no warming during the 21st century.

There are many who will not like this recent paper published in Nature Communications on principle as it talks of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little Ice Age was global in extent, and that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.

Advocates of global warming remain must explain their science in the form of a paper that is accepted, quantitative, confirmed by observation and that gives a useful mathematical relation between air temperatures and the concentrations of GHG in them.

Arbetter, 4.7, Statistical A statistical model using regional observations of sea ice area and global NCEP air temperature, sea level pressure, and freezing degree day estimates continues the trend of projecting below - average summer sea ice conditions for the Arctic.

Perhaps she too has noticed that, judging by the fact that the observations appear to be tracking Scenario C rather well (which can also mean that increasing CO2 does not have a large, direct impact on global temperatures), there IS no need to panic.

However, models would need to underestimate variability by factors of over two in their standard deviation to nullify detection of greenhouse gases in near - surface temperature data (Tett et al., 2002), which appears unlikely given the quality of agreement between models and observations at global and continental scales (Figures 9.7 and 9.8) and agreement with inferences on temperature variability from NH temperature reconstructions of the last millennium.

Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change.