[A] ll the constituents of natural forcings together seem to make contributions equal to the greenhouse gases in the context of recent global temperature variability
But they «fail to explain why short -
term global temperature variability would have any bearing on the 2 °C limit,» as Stefan Rahmstorf put it in his debunking post on RealClimate.
Since ENSO variability is a big driver of
the global temperature variability [around the trend] you'd want a decrease to be sustained over a couple of ENSO cycles [> 10 yrs] rather than three years.
Since ENSO variability is a big driver of
the global temperature variability [around the trend] you'd want a decrease to be sustained over a couple of ENSO cycles [> 10 yrs] rather than three years.
adding evidence to their case that this part of the Pacific is an important contributor to
global temperature variability.
And more than just matching wiggles in global average temperature, they showed how the variability in their model resembled the variability in the real temperature record — adding evidence to their case that this part of the Pacific is an important contributor to
global temperature variability.
In their paper, McLean et al. found that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a large influence on
global temperature variability (i.e. short - term changes), but they also slipped a conclusion into their paper which was not supported by their research: