I think it's not a good idea to try to link
the global upper ocean heat content result to hurricanes.
• It is very likely that anthropogenic forcings have made a substantial contribution to increases in
global upper ocean heat content (0 — 700 m) observed since the 1970s (see Figure SPM.6).
Not exact matches
The average amount of heat absorbed and trapped in the
upper ocean over the past year was also higher than ever seen before, according to Deke Arndt, chief of the
global monitoring branch of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
The methane hydrates with the highest climate susceptibility are in
upper continental margin slopes, like those that ring the Arctic
Ocean, representing about 3.5 percent of the
global methane hydrate inventory, says Carolyn Ruppel, a scientist who leads the Gas Hydrates Project at the USGS.
«The mounting evidence is coalescing around the idea that decades of stronger trade winds coincide with decades of stalls or even slight cooling of
global surface temperatures, as heat is apparently transferred from the atmosphere into the
upper ocean,» Linsley said.
A study relating to this — «Our study confirms many changes seen in
upper Arctic
Ocean circulation in the 1990s were mostly decadal in nature, rather than trends caused by
global warming,» said Morison.
The
oceans are heating up: Not only was Earth's temperature record warm in 2014, but so were the
global oceans, as sea surface temperatures and the heat of the
upper oceans also hit record highs.
«With the hydrological cycle projected to change under
global warming, impacting
upper -
ocean stratification and mixing, the results from this study have potentially important implications for understanding future tropical cyclone activity.»
If all of this energy went into an accumulation of temperature in the
upper 100 m of the
global oceans, we would see an
upper mean 100 m
global ocean temperature increase of 1.1 oC.»
The authors note that more than 85 % of the
global heat uptake (Q) has gone into the
oceans, including increasing the heat content of the deeper
oceans, although their model only accounts for the
upper 700 meters.
In 2008, climate change sceptic Roger Pielke Sr said this: «
Global warming, as diagnosed by
upper ocean heat content has not been occurring since 2004».
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This recent slower warming in the
upper ocean is closely related to the slower warming of the
global surface temperature, because the temperature of the overlaying atmosphere is strongly coupled to the temperature of the
ocean surface.
~ Our study confirms many changes seen in
upper Arctic
Ocean circulation in the 1990s were mostly decadal in nature, rather than trends caused by
global warming,» / / www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2007-131 [ANDY REVKIN comments: That's precisely what I wrote in the Science Times feature on Arctic ice in September (link is in the post).
Mercury levels in the
upper layers of the
ocean are up 3.4 x since the beginning of the industrial revolution, according to the first study to have done truly
global measurements of marine mercury levels by taking thousands of samples around the world over half a decade.
I also tried to find an estimate of the net effect of hurricane activity on
upper ocean heat content; there are some reports on individual hurricanes (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/pubs/Opal.pdf) but I couldn't find any
global estimates.
Argo: Argo is a
global array of 3,800 free - drifting profiling floats that measures the temperature and salinity of the
upper 2000 m of the
ocean.
Global upper -
ocean chemistry trends driven by human carbon dioxide emissions are more rapid than variations in the geological past.
flow in the
upper 1,000 meters of
ocean driven by
global winds N. and S. hemispheres each have two circulations caused by the Coriolis Effect clockwise.
For 2004 — 2011, they find the
oceans accumulating 0.56 W / m2 (9x1021 J / yr) in the
upper 1,800 meters — equivalent to 4.5 Hiroshima atomic bomb detonations per second — during a time when many have argued that
global warming has magically «paused».
Forest 2006, along with several other climate sensitivity studies, used simulations by the MIT 2D model of zonal surface and
upper - air temperatures and
global deep -
ocean temperature, the
upper - air data being least influential.
The evolution of the
global weather for the period 1901 — 2010 is represented by a ten - member ensemble of 3 - hourly estimates for
ocean, surface and
upper - air parameters.
DK12 used
ocean heat content (OHC) data for the
upper 700 meters of
oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate of OHC increase has slowed in recent years (the very short timeframe of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods of «climate shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC data indicate that the net climate feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount of
global warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, including feedbacks) is low.
Time series of annual average
global integrals of
upper ocean heat content anomaly (1021 J, or ZJ) for (a) 0 — 100 m, (b) 0 — 300 m, (c) 0 — 700 m, and (d) 0 — 1800 m. Thin vertical lines denote when the coverage (Fig. 3) reaches 50 % for (a) 0 — 100 m, (b) 100 — 300 m, (c) 300 — 700 m, and (d) 900 — 1800 m. From Lyman & Johnson (2013)
In the present study, satellite altimetric height and historically available in situ temperature data were combined using the method developed by Willis et al. [2003], to produce
global estimates of
upper ocean heat content, thermosteric expansion, and temperature variability over the 10.5 - year period from the beginning of 1993 through mid-2003...
To conduct the research, a team of scientists led by John Fasullo of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, combined data from three sources: NASA's GRACE satellites, which make detailed measurements of Earth's gravitational field, enabling scientists to monitor changes in the mass of continents; the Argo
global array of 3,000 free - drifting floats, which measure the temperature and salinity of the
upper layers of the
oceans; and satellite - based altimeters that are continuously calibrated against a network of tide gauges.
Figure 1:
Global temperatures from models are calculated using air temperatures above the land surface and also from the
upper few meters of the
ocean.
Since 2006, the Argo program of autonomous profiling floats has provided near -
global coverage of the
upper 2,000 meters of the
ocean over all seasons [Riser et al., 2016].
Global warming took surface temperatures in 2017 to near - record levels, while the
upper oceans reached their hottest known level.
19 January, 2018 —
Global warming took surface temperatures in 2017 to near - record levels, while the
upper oceans reached their hottest known level.
On a
global scale, the
ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the
upper 75 m warmed by 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] °C per decade over the period 1971 — 2010.
«If you aren't measuring heat content in the
upper ocean, you aren't measuring
global warming.»
«Formal attribution studies now suggest that it is likely that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the observed warming of the
upper several hundred metres of the
global ocean during the latter half of the 20th century -LCB- 5.2, 9.5 -RCB-»
The
upper 3 meters of the world's
oceans hold more heat than the entire atmosphere, so continual ventilation of just 10 meters of warmer subsurface water will affect the
global average for decades.
White, W., and D. Cayan, 1998: Quasi-periodicity and
global symmetries in interdecadal
upper ocean temperature variability, J. Geophys.
The CO2 doubling response from CM2.6, over 70 - 80 years, shows that
upper -
ocean (0 - 300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the
global average.
«The heat content of the
upper ocean is a key climate indicator, contributing to a substantial portion of the
global sea level rise.
It is not «conduction» but exchange of radiation; if you keep your hands parallel at a distance of some cm the right hand does not (radiatively) «warm» the left hand or vice versa albeit at 33 °C skin temperature they exchange some hundreds of W / m ² (about 500 W / m ²) The solar radiation reaching the surface (for 71 % of the surface, the
oceans) is lost by evaporation (or evapotranspiration of the vegetation), plus some convection (20 W / ²) and some radiation reaching the cosmos directly through the window 8µm to 12 µm (about 20 W / m ² «
global» average); only the radiative heat flow surface to air (absorbed by the air) is negligible (plus or minus); the non radiative (latent heat, sensible heat) are transferred for surface to air and compensate for a part of the heat lost to the cosmos by the
upper layer of the water vapour displayed on figure 6 - C.
OHC: • Different
global estimates of sub-surface
ocean temperatures have variations at different times and for different periods, suggesting that sub-decadal variability in the temperature and
upper heat content (0 to to 700 m) is still poorly characterized in the historical record.
Consistent with the
global transfer of excess heat from the atmosphere to the
ocean, and the difference between warming over land and
ocean, there is some discontinuity between the plotted means of the lower atmosphere and the
upper ocean.
Right:
global ocean heat - content (HC) decadal trends (1023 Joules per decade) for the
upper ocean (surface to 300 meters) and two deeper
ocean layers (300 to 750 meters and 750 meters to the
ocean floor), with error bars defined as + / - one standard error x1.86 to be consistent with a 5 % significance level from a one - sided Student t - test.
Therefore, we estimate the heat uptake by the
upper 2,000 m of the
global ocean to be 0.72 + - 0.1 W m ^ 2.
For example, additional evidence of a warming trend can be found in the dramatic decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice at its summer minimum (which occurs in September), decrease in spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, increases in the
global average
upper ocean (
upper 700 m or 2300 feet) heat content (shown relative to the 1955 — 2006 average), and in sea - level rise.
Willis et al. (2004) used satellite altimetric height combined with about 900,000 in situ
ocean temperature profiles to produce
global estimates of
upper -
ocean (
upper 750 m) heat content on interannual timescales from mid-1993 to 2002 (see Figure 4 - 3).
However, we noted at the time that Dr. Pielke was only considering the heating of the
upper 700 meter
ocean layer, which is also an incomplete measure of
global warming.
Right:
global ocean heat - content (HC) decadal trends (1023 J per decade) for the
upper ocean (surface to 300 m) and two deeper
ocean layers (300 — 750m and 750 m — bottom), with error bars defined as + / - one standard error x1.86 to be consistent with a 5 % significance level from a one - sided Student t - test.
Satellite observations provide near -
global coverage and thus represent an important source of information over the
oceans, where radiosonde observations are scarce, and in the
upper troposphere, where radiosonde sensors are often unreliable.
We are in the midst of a hiatus decade where
global surface warming has been dampened, the increase of the
upper OHC has slowed, but more heat is going into the deeper
ocean layers.
The observed absence of heat accumulation (of Joules) in the
upper ocean (and in the troposphere) for the last four years means that there has been NO
global warming in these climate metrics during this time period.
Craig King - Further to Bob Loblaw's comments; that
global surface air temperatures are warming faster than
upper ocean temperatures is well - observed and completely uncontroversial.