However, since their methodology suppresses most of the high frequency variability, one needs to be cautious when making comparisons between their reconstruction and relatively rapid events like
the global warming of the last century.
Therefore, Miskolczi concludes that the observed increase in CO2 concentration must not be the reason for
global warming of the last century.
Not exact matches
«We are still sort
of at the early stages
of the
global warming phenomenon, and CO2 is rising much faster this
century than the
last century.»
It follows much discussion on the nature
of global change in a
warmer 21st
Century at the COP23 Climate Negotiations in Bonn
last week.
The initial IPCC report in this series, released
last September, noted that the atmosphere could bear only 800 to 1,000 billion metric tons
of greenhouse gases, in order to restrain
global warming to 2 degrees Celsius by
century's end.
With the contribution
of such record warmth at year's end and with 10 months
of the year record
warm for their respective months, including the
last 8 (January was second
warmest for January and April was third
warmest), the average
global temperature across land and ocean surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th
century average
of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record warmth
of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29 °F).
Over the
last half -
century around 93 %
of global warming has actually gone into heating the ocean.
It will also include complicated models
of interconnected ecosystem feedbacks.The panel's
last report noted that preliminary knowledge
of such feedbacks suggested that an additional 100 billion to 500 billion tons
of greenhouse gas emissions would have to be prevented in the next
century to avoid dangerous
global warming.
Since the CMIP5 models used by the IPCC on average adequately reproduce observed
global warming in the
last two and a half decades
of the 20th
century without any contribution from multidecadal ocean variability, it follows that those models (whose mean TCR is slightly over 1.8 °C) must be substantially too sensitive.
The resulting reduction in cloudiness, especially
of low - altitude clouds, may be a significant factor in the
global warming Earth has undergone during the
last century.»
Thus it appears that, provided further satellite cloud data confirms the cosmic ray flux low cloud seeding hypothesis, and no other factors were involved over the past 150 years (e.g., variability
of other cloud layers) then there is a potential for solar activity induced changes in cloudiness and irradiance to account for a significant part
of the
global warming experienced during the 20th
century, with the possible exception
of the
last two decades.
Assuming a climate sensitivity
of 0.7 K / W / m ^ 2, this would contribute less than 0.06 C
of the estimated 0.6 C mean
global warming between the Maunder Minimum and the middle
of last century, before significant anthropogenic contributions could be involved.»
Because we understand the energy balance
of our Earth, we also know that
global warming is caused by greenhouse gases — which have caused the largest imbalance in the radiative energy budget over the
last century.
Original post
Last summer, a paper published in Nature, «Global phytoplankton decline over the past century,» caught the attention of climate campaigners and some media outlets because it concluded that warming of the seas over the last century was linked with a big and near - global decline in oceanic phytoplank
Last summer, a paper published in Nature, «
Global phytoplankton decline over the past century,» caught the attention of climate campaigners and some media outlets because it concluded that warming of the seas over the last century was linked with a big and near - global decline in oceanic phytopla
Global phytoplankton decline over the past
century,» caught the attention
of climate campaigners and some media outlets because it concluded that
warming of the seas over the
last century was linked with a big and near - global decline in oceanic phytoplank
last century was linked with a big and near -
global decline in oceanic phytopla
global decline in oceanic phytoplankton.
A recent video
of him being interviewed by Brit Hume
of Fox News had Michaels asserting that while
global warming was real we could expect the average rate
of temperature increase over the
last century to remain flat over the next
century, and so no big deal.
I posted a quick riff overnight on new research, published in Nature, that links human - driven
global warming and rising instances
of extreme precipitation in observed parts
of the Northern Hemisphere over the
last half
of the 20th
century.
But the evidence shows this can't be true; temperature changes before CO2 in every record
of any duration for any time period; CO2 variability does not correlate with temperature at any point in the
last 600 million years; atmospheric CO2 levels are currently at the lowest level in that period; in the 20th
century most
warming occurred before 1940 when human production
of CO2 was very small; human production
of CO2 increased the most after 1940 but
global temperatures declined to 1985; from 2000
global temperatures declined while CO2 levels increased; and any reduction in CO2 threatens plant life, oxygen production, and therefore all life on the planet.
The Oz approach to
global warming is increasingly informed by hard data that show trivial national
warming over the
last century plus, as recorded in old, official puublications like Commonwealth Year Books from the 1950s and a CSIR (O) publication
of the state
of the climate from recording start to 1933.
From Climate Change Dispatch Peter Ferrara — Forbes Blogs — February 24, 2014 If you look at the record
of global temperature data, you will find that the late 20th
Century period
of global warming actually
lasted about 20 years, from the late 1970s to the late 1990s.
Sea level rose nearly 20 cm over the
last century — little, if any
of which could be attributed to
global warming — without too much fuss.
It was important in that it cast serious doubt on the notion both
of a
global Medieval
Warm Period
warmer than the 20th
century and
of a
global Little Ice Age, both long - time (cautiously) accepted features
of the
last 1,000 years
of climate history.
Last year was the
warmest year recorded since the measurement
of global surface temperatures began in the nineteenth
century.
Svalgaard clearly does not support AGW theory, but does not support the idea that the sun brought about all the
global warming of the
last half
century either.
He is wrong about why
global warming took place the
last half
of last century.
An Arctic scientist who has consistently sounded alarms about the approach
of global warming, Smith is best known for determining the role
of climate change in the disappearance
of more than a thousand Arctic lakes over the
last quarter
of the 20th
century.
Bob, I think the notion
of a modern grand maximum which provides a hand - waving mechanism for natural variability to explain all the
global warming that occurred late
last century is hard for AGW skeptics to give up.
1) Skeptics Position on
Global Warming The last 130 years global mean temperature pattern continues with a global warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century: http://bit.ly/
Global Warming The last 130 years global mean temperature pattern continues with a global warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century: http://bit.ly
Warming The
last 130 years
global mean temperature pattern continues with a global warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century: http://bit.ly/
global mean temperature pattern continues with a
global warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century: http://bit.ly/
global warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century: http://bit.ly
warming rate
of 0.6 deg C per
century: http://bit.ly/pmOEot
I would think that most sceptics do agree that there has been some amount
of global warming in the
last century.
Global warming has propelled Earth's climate from one
of its coldest decades since the
last ice age to one
of its hottest — in just one
century.
The report criticized some statistics used to prove that the
last century was the
warmest one in
centuries, which means it proved that
global warming is pretend, in the eyes
of most Republicans.
Last September, New York's Daily News forecast
centuries of global warming drought for California:
He believes that man - made
global warming is real, and is responsible for much
of the climate change
of the
last century.
Climate science fiction: For the
last 10 year - period, the UN's IPCC climate models predicted greenhouse
global warming equaling a per
century trend
of 1.7 °C.
Case in point: you point out how a
CENTURY of global warming is borne out in the atmosphere, the cryosphere, the ocean temperature, and in sea level rise ALL YOUR OPPONENT needs to say is that the
last 18 years doesn't look like «
warming» for the atmosphere above 15,000 feet (which, btw, WHAT atmosphere?)
If the
warming trend
of the early 20th
century had continued (it didn't) until the end
of the 21st
century (2099),
global temperatures would have increased by +1.92 °C; yet despite the huge modern era CO2 spike, if the
warming trend represented by the
last 3 decades continued (it won't), the increase by 2099 would only be +1.72 °C.
Rising surface temperatures in the
last three decades
of the 20th
century were roughly half caused by man - made
global warming and half by the ocean currents keeping more heat near the surface, it finds.
The prominent upward trend in the GM precipitation occurring in the
last century and the notable strengthening
of the
global monsoon in the
last 30 yr (1961 — 90) appear unprecedented and are due possibly in part to the increase
of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, though the authors» simulations
of the effects from recent
warming may be overestimated without considering the negative feedbacks from aerosols.
The new analysis reveals that
global trends in recent decades are higher than reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the central estimate for the rate
of warming during the first 15 years
of the 21st
century is at least as great as the
last half
of the 20th
century.
With communism largely discredited today â $ «after all, 100 - 150 million people died at the hands
of communist «visionaries» during the
last century â $ «elitists who desire to rule other people's lives have gravitated to an even more powerful ideology, (namely the fear about
Global Warming).
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, these stabilization targets are consistent with keeping eventual mean projected
global warming to about 1.5 oC and 2.5 oC above current levels, respectively (this would be on top
of temperatures rises
of about 0.75 oC over the
last century).
People simply don't notice changes as small as 0.5 °C, the amount
of global warming over the
last century.
The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, a
global agreement reached
last year to phase - down HFCs, could help avoid up to half a degree Celsius
of warming by the end
of this
century.
Then due to
global warming we instead will see (presumably more than the
last century) more hurricanes, wild fires, not nearly as much snow, more drought, a collapse
of farming, not nearly as much rain; well unless it COULD make it rain more and cause floods, or snow more... etc, etc..
Which is essentially what BEST has done with their early temperatures with an exception: BEST imply that the
global temperature
of 1750 CAN NOT have been as
warm as it has been for the
last few
centuries.
By
last week, a model study had found that Totten alone could produce nearly a meter
of sea level rise before the end
of this
Century if
global warming forces ocean waters to heat up by 2 C or more near the Totten Glacier.
Tung writes: «Rapid
warming in the
last three decades
of the 20th
century, they found, was roughly half due to
global warming and half to the natural Atlantic Ocean cycle that kept more heat near the surface.
by Judith CurryRapid
warming in the
last three decades
of the 20th
century, they found, was roughly half due to
global warming and half to the natural Atlantic Ocean cycle that kept more heat near...
«With
global temperatures
warmer now than they were at the beginning
of the
last century, that means our temperatures are
warmer too, which increases the rate
of evaporation and increases the demands on water, increases the stress on the water supply, and also leaves us more susceptible to breaking the high - temperature record, which we've been doing lately,» Nielsen - Gammon said.
Note that the two
global warming phases in the
last century (1910 to 1940 & 1970 to 2000) had nearly identical
warming rates, showing the effect
of 60 - years
of human emission
of CO2 on the
global warming rate is NIL.
As Dr. Curry noted, the paper does not cite evidence for the somewhat ambiguous statement in the press release that «Rapid
warming in the
last three decades
of the 20th
century, they found, was roughly half due to
global warming and half to the natural Atlantic Ocean cycle that kept more heat near the surface.»