FORTRAN source and documentation for the 1980s version of the GISS global climate model, used in the original NASA GISS
global warming simulations described in Hansen et al. 1988.
Analyses of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble of
global warming simulations confirm the validity of the diagnostic method that separates the fast and slow responses.
«To assess the models» cloud feedback and climate sensitivity, we follow the Cess approach by conducting a pair of present - day and
global warming simulations for each model using prescribed SSTs and greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations (Cess et al. 1990).
FORTRAN source code and documentation for the 1980s version of the GISS global climate model, used in the original NASA GISS
global warming simulations described in Hansen et al. (1988).
In most future
global warming simulations with climate models no meltwater from Greenland is included so far.
Global Warming is being caused by both the human release of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels (oil, coal) and a natural warming cycle the Earth is going through As the global temperature begins to rise many changes will occur to climates around the world Complete
the global warming simulation on the class webpage.
In the first
global warming simulation, the forcing is by greenhouse gas only, while in the remaining two simulations the direct influence of sulfate aerosols is also included.
Not exact matches
Computer model
simulations have suggested that ice - sheet melting through
warm water incursions could initiate a collapse of the WAIS within the next few centuries, raising
global sea - level by up to 3.5 metres.»
Average composite reflectivity over the CONUS (contiguous US) domain in all 13 years of the
simulations are shown by season (May - June and July - August) and by
simulation type (control and psuedo
global warming).
In a study published this week in Science, UCI climatologists outline the results of computer
simulations showing a world subjected to nearly three more centuries of unbridled
global warming.
The second
simulation overlaid that same weather data with a «pseudo
global warming» technique using an accepted scenario that assumes a 2 - to 3 - degree increase in average temperature, and a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
In addition to a business - as - usual scenario, the team ran its
simulations under two mitigation scenarios, previously proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in which efforts are made to mitigate
global warming to 2 and 3 degrees Celsius, relative to pre-industrial times.
Model
simulations of 20th century
global warming typically use actual observed amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide, together with other human (for example chloroflorocarbons or CFCs) and natural (solar brightness variations, volcanic eruptions,...) climate - forcing factors.
To investigate cloud — climate feedbacks in iRAM, the authors ran several
global warming scenarios with boundary conditions appropriate for late twenty - first - century conditions (specifically,
warming signals based on IPCC AR4 SRES A1B
simulations).
Most
global warming alarms are based on computer
simulations that are largely speculative and depend on a multitude of debatable assumptions.
The resulting computer
simulation is the basis for predicting the catastrophic effects of increasing AGHG on
global warming.
Using thus 10 different climate models and over 10,000
simulations for the weather@home experiments alone, they find that breaking the previous record for maximum mean October temperatures in Australia is at least six times more likely due to
global warming.
The
simulations confirm that aerosol injection does brighten clouds, but the amount of solar radiation reflected may not be enough to balance the
global warming caused by burning fossil fuels.
A large ensemble of Earth system model
simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface
warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2,
global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.
Mengel said some
simulations produced the
warm ocean conditions needed to remove the ice cork within the next 200 years, but It would take around 2,000 years to raise
global sea levels by one meter (3.3 feet).
Discrepency between data & models as per Hans von Storch, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-hans-von-storch-on-problems-with-climate-change-models-a-906721.html «At my institute, we analyzed how often such a 15 - year stagnation in
global warming occurred in the
simulations.
The
simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in
global warming and ocean acidification.
First, most climate
simulations, including ours above and those of IPCC [1], do not include slow feedbacks such as reduction of ice sheet size with
global warming or release of greenhouse gases from thawing tundra.
M2009 use a simplified carbon cycle and climate model to make a large ensemble of
simulations in which principal uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcings, and climate response are allowed to vary, thus yielding a probability distribution for
global warming as a function of time throughout the 21st century.
By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr - 1 is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled
simulation than in uncoupled carbon models2, resulting in a
global - mean
warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon - cycle feedback.
116, G01010, 13 PP., 2011 doi: 10.1029 / 2010JG001300 Marine methane cycle
simulations for the period of early
global warming http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JG001300.shtml
Most
global warming alarms are based on computer
simulations that are largely speculative and depend on a multitude of debatable assumptions.
Elliott, S., Maltrud, M., Reagan, M., Moridis, G., and Cameron - Smith, P., «Marine methane cycle
simulations for the period of early
global warming», Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.
@» the lack of heating», the best comment was from a Royal Society spokesman in 2007 around the time of the Keenlyside «AMOC shutdown»
simulation... «
global warming could pause... even for a decade».
Gerald A. Meehl, Haiyan Teng & Julie M. Arblaster, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2357.html): «The slowdown in the rate of
global warming in the early 2000's is not evident in the multi-modal ensemble average of traditional climate change projection
simulations.»
This means then, that mainstream science only predicts
global warming based on computer
simulations... so
global warming is not a problem.
Meanwhile, modeling results in this area don't lead to definitive conclusions; as the recent WMO statement puts it, «Although recent climate model
simulations project a decrease or no change in
global tropical cyclone numbers in a
warmer climate there is low confidence in this projection.
Most
simulations of future
global warming trends show that northern Europe and the north Atlantic ocean will get colder over time, not hotter as
global warming progresses.
Kosaka and Xie made
global climate
simulations in which they inserted specified observed Pacific Ocean temperatures; they found that the model simulated well the observed
global warming slowdown or «hiatus,» although this experiment does not identify the cause of Pacific Ocean temperature trends.
The same
simulations found that — were the world to achieve the 1.5 °C
global warming limit which 195 nations agreed upon at the Paris climate summit in 2015 — then the Mediterranean region would experience only 3.2 months of drought.
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf The Physical Flaws of the
Global Warming Theory and Deep Ocean Circulation Changes as the Primary Climate Driver The water vapor, cloud, and condensation - evaporation assumptions within the conventional AGW theory and the (GCM)
simulations are incorrectly designed to block too much infrared (IR) radiation to space.
A realistic treatment of the hydrologic cycle would show that the influence of a doubling of CO2 should lead to a
global surface
warming of only about 0.3 °C — not the 3 °C
warming as indicated by the climate
simulations....
Large - eddy
simulation (LES) of clouds can help resolve one of the most important and challenging question in climate dynamics, namely, how subtropical low clouds respond to
global warming.
«The consensus had been that
global warming was delaying the monsoon... which is also what we found with the
simulation if you didn't correct the SST biases,» Pascale said.
We can therefore again compare the Scenario A2 multi-model
global surface
warming projections to the observed
warming, in this case since 2000, when the AR4 model
simulations began (Figure 9).
Global warming, climate change, station temperature data, trend analysis, trend profile, CET, Monte Carlo
simulation, numerical methods, OLS assumptions, Hurst dependency, nonlinearity, OLS diagnostics
As shown in Figure 2, the IPCC FAR ran
simulations using models with climate sensitivities (the total amount of
global surface
warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) correspoding to 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high).
Figure 2b - d shows how this strength of the
global hydrological cycle responds to
warming in the A1B scenario and in the 20C3M
simulations in the AR4 archive.
ocean acidification,
global warming, climate change, Monte Carlo
simulation, anthropogenic emissions, carbon dioxide, detrended analysis, human emissions, fossil fuels, bootstrap, numerical methods, natural variability
Which conveniently ignores Science News» Oct. 5th article:
Global warming hiatus tied to cooler temps in Pacific, which states «The recent pause in global warming has resulted from cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean, new simulations
Global warming hiatus tied to cooler temps in Pacific, which states «The recent pause in
global warming has resulted from cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean, new simulations
global warming has resulted from cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean, new
simulations find.
By the year 2070, however, researchers found that the
warming would nearly catch up to the reference
simulation, which means that a future grand solar minimum would merely slow down
global warming.
As a result of the significant scientific effort to date, aided by public concern, models simulating climate change have gained considerable skill... There will be many scientific and technical challenges along the way, but the hope is that
simulations of the
global environment will be able to maximise the number of people around the world who can adapt to, and be protected from the worst impacts of,
global warming.
# 5:
Global climate model
simulations that include greenhouse gases indicate that the magnitude of
warming that would be expected from greenhouse gas increases is at least as large as the observed
warming.
See Johanson & Fu (2009) Hadley Cell Widening: Model
Simulations versus Observations and Dai (2012) Increasing drought under
global warming in observations and models.
Option C won't make it go away either because
simulations are so massaged by confirmation bias that many reasonable people, understanding this, may tentitively choose option A. On the other hand, the problem of catastrophic
global warming may well go away with additional data.