Sentences with phrase «global yield curve»

The economic outlook for 2017 may rest in large part on the global yield curve.

The graph below shows the global yield curve and the subsequent growth in World EPS.

The global yield curve is a 12 - month moving average of the yield curves of the 6 countries, each weighted by their GDP.

The global yield curve is represented by the blue line, and is plotted on the left axis.

But by overweighting highly cyclical companies with the global yield curve already so flat, investors must believe that the yield curve has lost all of its ability to signal slower growth ahead.

When the Global yield curve has been inverted in the past, industrial stocks have performed poorly.

The global yield curve was inverted from 1979 until 1982.

In any case, it may be unwise to completely ignore the global yield curve.

If the global yield curve's forecast for slower earnings growth turns out to be correct, it will pose a particular challenge to cyclical indexes.

Using monthly data, the smoothed Global Yield Curve bottomed in November 1981, May 1990, and April 2001.

The chart below shows the average 12 - month returns in some of the industries that make up the MSCI World Index - including Materials, Energy, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples - subsequent to different shapes of the global yield curve.

But we prefer shorter - duration Treasuries, as policy shifts that steepen global yield curves make us cautious of longer - duration U.S. government bonds.

It is possible that U.S. and global yield curves need to invert to a greater extent, or for a longer period of time, to continue their ability to forecast officially - declared recessions.

Global yield curves flattened in 2017, but we see several reasons for this trend to halt — and perhaps even to reverse in 2018.

Historically, global yield curves have provided guidance about this risk.

To see this, we can look at a composite of global yield curves and its relation to MSCI's World EPS data series.

Low Quality's Round Trip Bad News Bulls Stock Performance Following the Recognition of Recession The Beginning of the Middle Experimenting with the Market's Median Valuation Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Expected Misery Index Consumer Spending Break - Down Recessions and the Duration of Bad News Price - to - Sales Ratio May Prove Valuable International Markets Show Important Divergences Fixed Investment and the Technology Rally Global Yield Curves, Earnings Growth, and Sector Returns Recessions and Stock Prices Adjusting P / E Ratios for the Market Cycle Private Equity and Market Valuation Must Stocks Rise Following a Cut in the Fed Funds Rate?

Not exact matches

While credit spreads and leading indicators appear to be fairly well behaved, many have noted the sinister looking shape of the yield curve, near its flattest level since before the global financial crisis (see the chart below).

Traditionally, global equities do not peak until after the yield curve has inverted, he adds, but «given the very low - rate nature of this cycle, we'd expect a flat curve to weigh more heavily on sentiment and encourage a more defensive rotation.»

We believe a step - up in risk aversion has led to a structural rise in precautionary savings, further dragging down bond yields across the curve — a trend that won't quickly change, as we write in our Global macro outlook The safety premium driving low rates.

The Barron's article pointed this out as well, citing London - based «G+E conomics» head Lena Komileva: «A surplus of investment funds looking for returns in low - yield global markets results in a cap on longer - term yields and a flat yield curve.»

Two sector trends stand out globally: steeper yield curves and improving net interest margins have boosted profits for global financials, while long - term demand trends lifted technology revenues.

Negative Feedback Loops «The steepness of the yield curve holds a long - standing correlation with currency weakness,» a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch global research says.

I think over the past 10 years, due to the zero - interest - rate policies by the global central banks, we have had a massive amount of debt issuance that's occurred as investors had been encouraged to go out the curve or down the credit curve in order to seek income, seek yield.

If you follow global financial trends, you would have noted the continual (and recently accelerating) decline in the slope of the US yield curve.

But the underlying economic expectations that steeper yield curves imply is of global reflation — higher growth and with it higher inflation.

This has caused the yield curve to flatten, but with global reflationary trends and the broad shift from monetary to fiscal policy, the yield curve may again steepen.

One has to wonder, if the U.S. Fed does eventually raise short - term rates, would the yield curve remain flat, or would global demand for longer assets move the curve into an inverted state?

Most global - government yield curves steepened over the month.

While that only has a direct impact on the short end of the yield curve, global and domestic economic forces, which have been keeping downward pressure on long - term rates, may be starting to loosen.