or «There is very high confidence that
globally averaged changes over land will exceed changes over the ocean at the end of the 21st century by a factor that is likely in the range 1.4 to 1.7.»
CO2 is less soluble in saltier water, but more soluble in colder water, and the second effect would win out for
globally averaged changes.
As it turns out, estimates of globally averaged sea level rise in the 20th century are irrelevant since Tuvalu's local sea level change is very different from
the globally averaged change.
Not exact matches
While a relatively minor part of the overall aerosol mass,
changes in the anthropogenic portion of aerosols since 1750 have resulted in a
globally averaged net radiative forcing of roughly -1.2 W / m2, in comparison to the overall
average CO2 forcing of +1.66 W / m2.
«we estimate that less than 23 %, at the 95 % confidence level, of the 11 - year cycle
changes in the
globally averaged cloud cover observed in solar cycle 22 is due to the
change in the rate of ionization from the solar modulation of cosmic rays.»
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and global mean temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally
averaged surface temperature
change at high latitudes exceeds the
globally averaged temperature
change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the annual cycle.
And, do you know whether 6.7 billion people will be able to maintain any degree of political stability if the climate
changes five degrees,
globally, on
average?
Indeed,
globally averaged systematic observation biases, sampling array issues and steric
changes below 1500m depth together are smaller than the error of SLRES.
In fact, all climate models do predict that the
change in
globally -
averaged steady state temperature, at least, is almost exactly proportional to the
change in net radiative forcing, indicating a near - linear response of the climate, at least on the broadest scales.
Except that GHG forcing + cooling aerosol forcing results in less precipitation
globally in general than reduced GHG forcing that produces the same global
average temperature, as found in «Climate
Change Methadone» elsewhere at RC.
That we can get a 10 - or even 15 - year period with no real
change in
globally averaged temperature even though in the end we have strong global warming.
The GRACE observations over Antarctica suggest a near - zero
change due to combined ice and solid earth mass redistribution; the magnitude of our GIA correction is substantially smaller than previous models have suggested and hence we produce a systematically lower estimate of ice mass
change from GRACE data: we estimate that Antarctica has lost 69 ± 18 Gigatonnes per year (Gt / yr) into the oceans over 2002 - 2010 — equivalent to +0.19 mm / yr
globally -
averaged sea level
change, or about 6 % of the sea - level
change during that period.
The crux of Bates» claim is that NOAA, the federal government's top agency in charge of climate science, published a poorly - researched but widely praised study with the political goal of disproving the controversial global warming hiatus theory, which suggests that global warming slowed down from 1998 until 2012 with little
change in
globally -
averaged surface temperatures — a direct contrast to global warming advocates» claim that the earth's temperature has been constantly increasing.
Antarctic temperature
changes across the ice ages were very similar to
globally -
averaged temperatures, except that ice age temperature
changes over Antarctica were roughly twice that of the global
average.
On the other hand, the Arctic sea ice albedo reduction does contribute significantly to polar amplification of
globally averaged temperature
changes.
Yes, this
change is not
globally uniform, just an
average, some have more and some have less than double the frequency of warm summers defined that way.
Change in
globally -
averaged pH for the entire ocean (left - hand chart) and surface ocean (right - hand chart).
Consider that the measurement used, the
globally averaged temperature anomaly (GATA), is always
changing.
The air responds to a
change in it's own resistor efficiency by
changing it's own circulation patterns to again meet the requirement that the surface air temperature and the sea surface temperature be the same on
average globally.
In order to estimate
globally averaged temperature
changes with a high degree of accuracy, it is necessary to have a broad spatial distribution of observations that are made with high precision.break
Averaged globally, this albedo
change is equivalent to 25 % of the direct forcing from CO2 during the past 30 years.»
Since the millenium, exceptionally strong storms have prevailed
globally, oceans are covering once habitable islands, Beijing is suffocating, 100 year and 150 year floods are frequent, major aquifers have been depleted (the Salton Sea is drying up), weather patterns have
changed drastically, winters in the S.E.states are definitely experiencing drastically warmer
averages (some areas only 10 - 14 nights of freezing temp vs. 1970 28 - 30 nights of freezing temp).
Over 1993 — 2014, the resulting
globally averaged geocentric sea level
change is 8 % smaller than the barystatic contribution.
The
globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also
changes more rapidly than the
globally averaged precipitation rate.
Yes in fact we know that the paradigm of only the
globally average TOA radiative forcing mattering must be erroneous as it fails to explain how Milankovitch forcing (
changes in insolation) causes the glacial interglacial cycles, when it is a forcing which is tiny on a global scale (even hemisphericaly completely out of phase!)
--
Changes (order of a few percent) in globally averaged column ozone forced by the solar ultraviolet irradiance 11 - year cycle are now better understood, but ozone profile changes are less c
Changes (order of a few percent) in
globally averaged column ozone forced by the solar ultraviolet irradiance 11 - year cycle are now better understood, but ozone profile
changes are less c
changes are less certain.
Dr. Gerald A. Meehl — Nature Climate
Change — 18th September 2011 «There have been decades, such as 2000 — 2009, when the observed
globally averaged surface - temperature time series shows little increase or even a slightly negative trend1 (a hiatus period)....»
«We are looking at climate
change that, on
average, has warmed
globally about 0.6 degrees Celsius,» she said.
Our evidence for this is based on the observation, previously noted by Pallé (2005), that the
changes in
globally averaged low cloud cover are strongly anti-correlated (r = − 0.79) to variations in overlying cloud cover (Fig. 3).
As seen in Figure 4 - 3, the ocean warming occurred in the later years of the record with little
change in
globally averaged ocean heat content prior to 1997.
Doing this on a year - to - year basis shows NO apparent correlation with the absolute «
globally and annually
averaged land and sea surface temperature anomaly» (i.e. HadCRUT3), but does show a weak correlation with the
CHANGE in temperature from the previous year, for example:
«Over 1993 - 2014, the resulting
globally averaged geocentric sea level
change is 8 % smaller than the barystatic contribution,» the researchers wrote in their study.
Based primarily upon the range of urban minus rural adjusted dataset comparisons and the degree of agreement of these products with a broad range of reanalysis products, it is unlikely that any uncorrected urban heat - island effects and LULC
change effects have raised the estimated centennial
globally averaged LSAT trends by more than 10 % of the reported trend (high confidence, based on robust evidence and high agreement).
3) So in the last 100 years, the Sun had zero impact on the
change of
globally averaged temperatures?
These feedbacks are the primary source of uncertainty in how much the earth will warm (side note: the question that most climate scientists who study the forcing due to CO2 try to answer is, how much will the long - term
globally averaged surface temperature of the earth rise due to an rapid rise of CO2 to twice its industrial level, that is, 270 ppm to 540 ppm; it is currently about 380 last time I checked, and rising at ~ 3ppm / year, although this rate of
change appears to be accelerating).
Globally, at the United Nations Conference on Climate
Change in Paris, 195 countries — including the United States, at the time — agreed to pollution - cutting provisions with a goal of preventing the
average global temperature from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times.
Recently, under the Paris Agreement on Climate
Change, there has been a call for research into impacts associated with a 1.5 C or 2C
globally -
averaged surface temperature anomaly.
Averaged globally, this albedo
change is equivalent to 25 % of the direct forcing from CO2 during the past 30 y.
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