Sentences with phrase «good economic forecasting»

Thus experts consider that good economic forecasting is the key to anticipating changes in the bond and stock markets.

Not exact matches

While models that attempt to forecast potential economic impacts provide useful insights regarding potential risks when exploring policy choices, the Commission is of the view that it must also consider the potential upsides of greater choice, including the retention of subscribers in the system, as well as the risks associated with maintaining the status quo in a context of increased demand for more choice.

A significant portion of the TSC hearing focused on Haldane's now famous Fish comment, as well as broader issues with economic forecasting — something that has come to the fore in the UK since economists were almost unanimously wrong in their predictions about the immediate impact of Brexit on the British economy.

The paper finds that junk bonds are, in fact, a very good indicator for forecasting economic peaks if not troughs, effectively warning ahead of eight of the last ten peaks in the business cycle.

Although the rise in interest rates is, in many ways, confirmation of a better economic environment, it has prompted many economists to revisit their forecasts.

The short - term prospects for the deficit also look good; probably better than you forecast last October in your Economic and Fiscal Update.

These include publishing: • Historical estimates and medium - term projections of the economy's potential GDP, as well as the methodology and assumptions used; • Medium - term projections of the Government's structural, or cyclically - adjusted budget balance as well as the methodology and assumptions used; • The assumptions, projections and methods to translate the private sector economic forecasts into its fiscal forecasts; and • The fiscal sustainability analyses of the provincial - territorial government sector that it prepared.

The Update incorporates the October average private sector economic forecasts and an increased «adjustment for risk» for 2011 - 12 to 2013 - 14, as well as an increase in employment insurance rates of only 5 cents (employee rate) for 2012, rather than the 10 cents set in legislation As a result, the balanced budget target is delayed from 2014 - 15 to 2016 - 17, prior to the inclusion of the Targeted Strategic and Operating Review Savings (now called «Deficit Reduction Action Plan Saving Target»).

Our long - term forecasts are based on our assessment of current valuation measures, economic growth and inflation prospects, as well as historical risk premiums.

The outpouring of almost comically muddled explanations of and forecasts for the Chinese growth miracle has been an especially egregious example of the way well - intentioned economic analysis has led to, or at least encouraged, worse outcomes.

Taking into account recent private sector forecasts for economic growth for 2015, would, in fact, eliminate the $ 1.4 billion budget surplus, as well as the $ 1 billion Contingency Reserve.

A better understanding of the budgetary revenue forecast would be achieved if the Minister of Finance provided more details on the economic forecast in his budgets and fiscal updates.

These economic factors, as well as the rapidly evolving retail landscape, make it difficult to forecast accurately over a three - year period.

Published bi-weekly on Fridays, PNC's Market Expectation Survey lists the current consensus forecast for key economic data releases for the upcoming week, as well as PNC's own forecast for each item.

The Ernst and Young report found that the Department of Finance's economic forecasts were as good if not better than those of the private sector economists.

British Columbia is in good economic health, however the Board of Trade notes in this Budget an optimism in government's revenue forecasts (e.g. natural gas royalty revenue up 57.9 % in 2018 - 19).

But more seriously, despite the difficulties in making accurate forecasts, we still need to understand as best we can why the economy is performing the way it is, what that implies about the economic outlook, and, how policymakers can respond to generate better outcomes.

But the main ingredient in our forecast is the federal infrastructure program, which is well under way but not yet evident in the economic indicators we are tracking.

To get some insight into the matter, we turned to one of the most well - informed mortgage rate forecasts available anywhere, the «U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook» provided by Freddie Mac.

Officials repeatedly downgraded forecasts for economic growth last year to 1.4 %, a far cry from the average annual pace of about 7 % during the early 2000s and well below the medium - term target of 5 % set by President Vladimir Putin.

So, from an economic standpoint, this recent forecast for the Santa Ana real estate market is actually a good thing.

Guy Smith: That's a good lesson for people who are trying to launch their companies in Silicon Valley is that you're going to start losing customers from day one and fold that into your economic forecast.

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

The Prime Minister should refrain from making economic forecasts because, as he should know from past experience in 2008, there is a very good chance they will come back to haunt him.

This provides the reviewer with an assessment of the variability among the private sector forecasts; thereby providing a better basis to assess the economic forecast underlying the budget.

The better - than - expected outcome for 2016 - 17, along with the much stronger than expected economic growth for 2017, suggests that the deficit outcome for 2017 - 18 could be much lower than currently forecast at $ 28.5 billion.

Instead, the government at that time decided to use the average of private sector economic forecasts rather than those produced by the Department of Finance even though E&Y had concluded that the Department's economic forecasts were consistently better than those in the private sector.

Although there might be some improvement in these forecasts given the somewhat better economic outlook presented in the budget, the impact would not be large enough to result in surpluses in their forecasts.

With the deterioration in the economic outlook since the April 2016 with deficits now projected over the forecast period, the deficit will be well above the $ 10 billion of promised policy initiatives in 2016 - 17.

In his November Update, the Finance Minister did not adjust the private sector forecast for any prudence, arguing, as well, that the risks to the economic forecast were balanced.

Kiplinger's best - known publications are The Kiplinger Letter, a weekly business and economic forecasting periodical for people in management, the monthly Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine, and www.kiplinger.com.

This could be based on different reasons like a stock's current earnings per share or forecasted future earnings as well as other economic factors.

If the report's forecast proves accurate, it would represent Germany's best economic performance since 2011.

They will also assess how recent forecasts fit into our expectations for economic trends and policy changes and provide snapshots of the latest data as well as upcoming market events.

NYSUT's leadership pointed to a positive economic situation for the state, as well as an increased revenue forecast.

Yet every serious international body, including the IMF, the OECD, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research — as well as Nobel prize - winners — forecast we will be poorer outside the EU.

«Fiscal and economic forecasting is complex, but the government's record is good, with forecasts generally in line with consensus on both economic growth and the public finances,» a Treasury spokesman said.

Cheng's forecast: «I think the next decade, depending on everyone's economic development, may well see a heating up of the Asian space competition.»

Although the distribution of economic outcomes may well be wider than was the case historically, anyone trying to invest on the back of an economic forecast is, to use Montier's indelicate word, «insane.»

In his book The Fortune Sellers, researcher William Sherden examined 25 years of market calls and economic forecasts and concluded that, as a group, they were no better than guesses, and no forecaster demonstrated consistent accuracy.

To get some insight into the matter, we turned to one of the most well - informed mortgage rate forecasts available anywhere, the «U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook» provided by Freddie Mac.

The investment world has well - known outliers, frequently based on strategies that do not involve economic forecasts.

The risks that economic developments could turn out better or worse than forecast are broadly balanced

That means that markets and economic activity have demonstrated that — over time — certain economic cycles can do a fairly good job at forecasting both bullish and bearish market and sector trends.

Ever since, economic forecasts as well as economic realities have been diminishing.

In most (but obviously not all) instances, I think trying to forecast the future is much like forecasting economic growth — a difficult, frustrating & often pointless exercise for investors — far better to focus on the best companies & management teams.

Better forecast consumer credit risk, benchmark portfolio results and inform capital planning under varied economic scenarios based on the FICO ® Score.

We can define periods of economic and market agreement and periods of discord by using timely variables, such as the New Orders series from the monthly Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report, to forecast the probability, at any time, of agreement between the economy and the market.5 Typically macro-based measures suffer from a significant lag in reporting as well as frequent revisions, making them inferior to the immediacy of observing market data, month by month, day by day, even tick by tick.

This is for no better reason than people making market timing forecasts about where that currency may be headed short - term, based on random daily news and economic statistics.

With $ Trillion deficits forecast through the next decade that may not bode well for «economic realities».