What appears utterly extraordinary at first — sending someone correct predictions of the winners of six races — seems very ordinary as soon as you understand that thousands of people
got wrong predictions.
Not exact matches
While science fiction has
gotten a lot
wrong in its
predictions of what the robo - future would look like, it does provide a laboratory of the imagination.
They talk about
getting up to 3 or 4 %, which looks unlikely given that 10 year rates are at 2 % and as you pointed out their
predictions of 10 year rates increasing have always been
wrong.
200 years ago, economists made a
prediction, and we
got it
wrong.
Thousands of years of
getting it 100 %
wrong on
predictions and still being able to reel in the suckers.
Nothing to do with us, especially Ozil, actually being good at football or you
getting all your
predictions of doom for Arsenal totally
wrong.
Don't you
get tired of
predictions that are always
wrong.
Time for some brutal honesty... this team, as it stands, is in no better position to compete next season than they were 12 months ago, minus the fact that some fans have been easily snowed by the acquisition of Lacazette, the free transfer LB and the release of Sanogo... if you look at the facts carefully you will see a team that still has far more questions than answers... to better show what I mean by this statement I will briefly discuss the current state of affairs on a position - by - position basis... in goal we have 4 potential candidates, but in reality we have only 1 option with any real future and somehow he's the only one we have actively tried to
get rid of for years because he and his father were a little too involved on social media and he
got caught smoking (funny how people still defend Wiltshire under the same and far worse circumstances)... you would think we would want to keep any goaltender that Juventus had interest in, as they seem to have a pretty good history when it comes to that position... as far as the defenders on our current roster there are only a few individuals whom have the skill and / or youth worthy of our time and / or investment, as such we should
get rid of anyone who doesn't meet those simple requirements, which means we should
get rid of DeBouchy, Gibbs, Gabriel, Mertz and loan out Chambers to see if last seasons foray with Middlesborough was an anomaly or a
prediction of things to come... some fans have lamented wildly about the return of Mertz to the starting lineup due to his FA Cup performance but these sort of pie in the sky meanderings are indicative of what's
wrong with this club and it's wishy - washy fan - base... in addition to these moves the club should aggressively pursue the acquisition of dominant and mobile CB to stabilize an all too fragile defensive group that has self - destructed on numerous occasions over the past 5 seasons... moving forward and building on our need to re-establish our once dominant presence throughout the middle of the park we need to target a CDM then do whatever it takes to
get that player into the fold without any of the usual nickel and diming we have become famous for (this kind of ruthless haggling has cost us numerous special players and certainly can't help make the player in question feel good about the way their future potential employer feels about them)... in order for us to become dominant again we need to be strong up the middle again from Goalkeeper to CB to DM to ACM to striker, like we did in our most glorious years before and during Wenger's reign... with this in mind, if we want Ozil to be that dominant attacking midfielder we can't keep leaving him exposed to constant ridicule about his lack of defensive prowess and provide him with the proper players in the final third... he was never a good defensive player in Real or with the German National squad and they certainly didn't suffer as a result of his presence on the pitch... as for the rest of the midfield the blame falls squarely in the hands of Wenger and Gazidis, the fact that Ramsey, Ox, Sanchez and even Ozil were allowed to regularly start when none of the aforementioned had more than a year left under contract is criminal for a club of this size and financial might... the fact that we could find money for Walcott and Xhaka, who weren't even guaranteed starters, means that our whole business model needs a complete overhaul... for me it's time to
get rid of some serious deadweight, even if it means selling them below what you believe their market value is just to simply right this ship and change the stagnant culture that currently exists... this means saying goodbye to Wiltshire, Elneny, Carzola, Walcott and Ramsey... everyone, minus Elneny, have spent just as much time on the training table as on the field of play, which would be manageable if they weren't so inconsistent from a performance standpoint (excluding Carzola, who is like the recent version of Rosicky — too bad, both will be deeply missed)... in their places we need to bring in some proven performers with no history of injuries... up front, although I do like the possibilities that a player like Lacazette presents, the fact that we had to wait so many years to acquire some true quality at the striker position falls once again squarely at the feet of Wenger... this issue highlights the ultimate scam being perpetrated by this club since the arrival of Kroenke: pretend your a small market club when it comes to making purchases but milk your fans like a big market club when it comes to ticket prices and merchandising... I believe the reason why Wenger hasn't pursued someone of Henry's quality, minus a fairly inexpensive RVP, was that he knew that they would demand players of a similar ilk to be brought on board and that wasn't possible when the business model was that of a «selling» club... does it really make sense that we could only make a cheeky bid for Suarez, or that we couldn't
get Higuain over the line when he was being offered up for half the price he eventually went to Juve for, or that we've only paid any interest to strikers who were clearly not going to press their current teams to let them go to Arsenal like Benzema or Cavani... just part of the facade that finally came crashing down when Sanchez finally called their bluff... the fact remains that no one wants to win more than Sanchez, including Wenger, and although I don't agree with everything that he has done off the field, I would much rather have Alexis front and center than a manager who has clearly bought into the Kroenke model in large part due to the fact that his enormous ego suggests that only he could accomplish great things without breaking the bank... unfortunately that isn't possible anymore as the game has changed quite dramatically in the last 15 years, which has left a largely complacent and complicit Wenger on the outside looking in... so don't blame those players who demanded more and were left wanting... don't blame those fans who have tried desperately to raise awareness for several years when cracks began to appear... place the blame at the feet of those who were well aware all along of the potential pitfalls of just such a plan but continued to follow it even when it was no longer a financial necessity, like it ever really was...
Former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith said the Treasury had «consistently
got its
predictions wrong in the past» and pointed out responsibility for forecasting was removed from the department in 2010.
Don't
get me
wrong; these aren't
predictions for what I think WILL happen.
The major poll - based forecasts, a lot of models, the
prediction markets, even the superforecaster crowd all
got it
wrong.
Predictions that the numbers would drop off as the weather
got worse and the seas became colder and rougher have, sadly, been proved
wrong.
«I have
got a number of political
predictions wrong in my career, but this is the first that has gone to helping such a worthwhile cause.
Of course, in the past, they have sometimes
got their
predictions spectacularly
wrong.
Still, his
prediction back in January that the opinion polls were
getting it badly
wrong — overestimating the Labour vote and underestimating the Conservatives» — has very much come to pass.
But
get this weighting
wrong, and your
predictions will be off, as seems to have happened in 2015.
Local forecasts are crucial, says Zafar, because large - scale
predictions can
get the fine detail
wrong.
As anyone who has used them knows, text
prediction systems in phones, search engines and word processors often
get things
wrong, sometimes hilariously.
Only if that
prediction is
wrong does a signal
get passed to higher areas, which adjust subsequent
predictions.
If they
get the past right, there is no reason to think their
predictions would be
wrong.
I looked back at the Guru's
predictions and I found that if you look at individual
predictions people
get things
wrong but the consensus seems to be right.
However even though on average, the
prediction of future performance based on early - career performance would be right most of the time, the district would also need to confront the fact that they'd definitely
get it
wrong some of the time.
Death's Gambit: I didn't believe the developers when they said this would be «Available 2017», but you know, sometimes even the best of us
get these
predictions wrong.
«there are lots of old articles that
get things
wrong, are sensationalist or made
predictions without a solid basis»
No other branch of science has ever been more
wrong in it's
predictions and people should
get off the wagon, it will only
get more embarassing the longer you stay on it.
My beef is not with the models being
wrong, that's to be expected the issue is with people trying to gloss over the discrepancy as a minor issue When David Hataway, leading light of solar physic
got his
prediction spectacularly
wrong on Solar cycle 24.
And frankly, there are lots of old articles that
get things
wrong, are sensationalist or made
predictions without a solid basis.
The difference is I also know I made some bad
predictions, and I also know you
get a lot of things
wrong.
But I guess that you're not going to be sent to jail for
getting your weather
predictions wrong (though the farmers might not be happy).
These private
predictions do nt
get into the public domaine, so few people would realise how
wrong they are.
Even over the past ten years or so, we've seen the best scientific
predictions proved
wrong — global warming is
getting much worse, much faster, than the consensus belief in 1999.
If someone is claiming a
prediction of 0.1 C accuracy that would be
wrong, but the scale of change is of order one degree already, and we can see it is
getting larger in line with AGW's forcing.
If they do so by simulating near - average conditions most of the time, they are
getting the right answer for the
wrong reason, and their
predictions of future sea ice decline should be discounted.
If they
get the past right, there is no reason to think their
predictions would be
wrong.
The idea the author is
getting at (that any long term
prediction, will probably prove
wrong) was captured pretty well (especially as it relates to the global warming debate) by, among others, Michael Crichton.
Solar cycles are predictable among differing timescales but number of sunspots in the shorter 9 — 11 year cycle is difficult, as NASA
got their first
predictions of cycle 24 spectacularly
wrong and had to reassess several times.
Getting the «right» answer for the
wrong reasons doesn't lend credibility to any future
predictions.
Taleb's book also documents how the experts»
predictions arrive at a consensus, and how badly the experts
get their
predictions wrong.
Though he admitted the journey had been a close - run thing, he maintained heroically that all that extra ice he had encountered was not a sign that the climate alarmists had
got their
predictions wrong.
Fortunately the climate models
got all their major
predictions wrong.
I wonder if this sentence counts as a
prediction Hansen
got wrong.
If you
got your temperature
predictions wrong (and that applies equally to the IPPC and Monckton) you loose the debate.
The models made a
prediction (well actually they made a lot of
predictions) but they
got the snowfall one clearly
wrong by a large margin.
And one final
prediction: I probably
got most of this
wrong because, by its very nature, the confluence of politics, the law and the courts makes for a very unpredictable beast.
[W] e found out that the
predictions we gave SCL were 6 times more likely to
get all 5 of a person's personality traits
wrong as it was to
get them all correct,» he wrote.
In fact, from our subsequent research on the topic,» he wrote, «we found out that the
predictions we gave SCL were 6 times more likely to
get all 5 of a person's personality traits
wrong as it was to
get them all correct.
So, it is
getting very clear that it is volatile and every
prediction goes
wrong.