So can I compare Carl Mear's
graph of Temperature Lower Troposphere with a graph based on Surface Temperature data?
Not exact matches
Till now, climate modellers» forecasts
of future warming have resembled the famous bell curve, with the most likely result
of doubling CO2 being a
temperature increase
of about 3 °C, and with declining probabilities on either side for a narrow range
of higher and
lower temperature rises (see
Graph).
For the 15 - year period starting in 1927, surface
temperature is
lower in 110
of the 114 model simulations (brown bars in the left
graph below) than in the real - world (black line).
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Graph the daily high and
low temperature over the course
of several weeks or a month.
Their
graph shows this:
temperatures in the two forecast intervals (green points shown at 2005 and 2010) are almost the same and are both
lower than observed in 1994 - 2004 (the end
of the red line in their
graph).
I also note that Keigwin appears to show a change in
temperature of about 2.5 C between the LIA and MWP (from his
temperature graph but I believe he quotes a
lower value in his text).
I was looking at a
temperature anomaly
graph (AccuWeather, who trend conservative) and found there was a direct correspondence between the
lowering of water temp * near * the New Orleans coast and the short - term reduction in force
of Gustav.
When I look at the ups and downs in the
graph of Antarctic
temperature between 1957 and 2006, the highs and
lows seem to correspond to the solar cycle.
How about this brutally simplified calculation for a
lower bound
of equilibrium
temperature sensitivity: — there seems to be a consensus that transient t.s. < equilibrium t.s. — today, the trend line is a + 1 C (see Columbia
graph)-- CO2 is at 410, which is 1.46 * 280 — rise is logarithmic, log (base2)
of 1.46 = 0.55 — 1/0.55 = 1.8 — therefore, a
lower bound for ETS is 1.8 C
The left - hand
graph in Figure 6 presents the GISS Land - Ocean
Temperature Index (LOTI) data for the
low - to - mid latitudes
of the Northern Hemisphere (0 - 65N).
One last comparison
graph, as a reference for discussion: Figure 10 compares the trends from 1997 to 2012
of GISS LOTI, HADCRUT4 and UAH
Lower Troposphere
Temperature anomalies.
It's very clear from the following
graph that
temperatures are
lower in recent months (in fact,
lower than at any point) than they were a decade ago, according to any
of the four main observations.
The high emissivity
of CO2 in the IR actually contributes to our radiative equilibrium
temperature being another 20K or more
lower than that but I'll wait until somebody is interested in implementing the computations in CoSy or puts a table, not a
graph,
of an actual measured mean spectrum in my lap.
Now the fact that tree rings get thinner when the
temperature is too high and thinner when its too
low, calls into question the basis
of this
graph which purports to show that the present
temperature rise is unprecedented.
It looks the authors claim they can and their Figure 4 shows a pronounced recent T increase that does not appear in Ball's version
of the
graph and would seem to destroy his claim that current
temperatures are in the
lowest 3 %.
These values are computed from the
temperature data shown in the
lower graph but conceptually this arrangement is to make the point that the basic phenomena is the fluctuating net heat flows that give rise to the
temperature changes and the accumulation
of these generate the
temperatures.
The data show no appreciable difference in the rate
of temperature rise between
low levels
of Anthropogenic CO2 and high levels as per the earlier
graphs.
As for the
temperature maximum between 600 and 800 yr A.D., we can see that the majority
of points in the short - lived trees are well above the average, while in the 20th century they tend to gravitate to the
lower part
of the
graph
Here is a set
of graphs for one
of the 5 - year model runs for this
lower air
temperature, also demonstrating how the
lower air
temperature pulls down the ocean surface
temperature:
Schneider and Kellog (1973), appearing as Chapter 5 in Rasool, Chemistry
of the
Lower Atmosphere, show a
graph with
temperature change by latitude band which supports a similar trend (also being based on Mitchell's work).
This
graph shows that even at the
lowest range
of climate sensitivity, future global warming will take us well beyond any
temperature experienced during civilized human history.
That's a little
lower than the January - May average
of 1.15 °C, because the slope
of the
graph is a little less than one, probably due to the fact that the
temperature boosts provided by El Niños tend to come in the early part
of the year.
The correct interpretation is that the global mean
temperature (GMT), for the last 130 years, from 1880 to 2010, has oscillated like a pendulum between the upper and
lower GMT boundary lines, with the global warming trend line as the neutral position
of the pendulum, as shown in the following
graph.
As described in the table above and
graph below, these scenarios provide a guide to the upper and
lower bounds
of likely outcomes for this year's mean
temperature anomaly.
Now ithe fact that tree rings get thinner when the
temperature is too high and thinner when its too
low calls into question the basis
of this
graph which purports to show that the present
temperature rise is unprecedented.
A common way
of reporting the uncertainty in a reconstruction is
graphing the reconstructed
temperature for a given year with the upper and
lower limits
of a 95 percent confidence interval to quantify the uncertainty.
In the
lower right
graph, hot nights are defined as nights with a minimum
temperature higher than 98 %
of the minimum
temperatures between 1971 and 2000.»