Claim 2: The alleged «hockey stick»
graph of temperatures over the past 1,600 years has been disproved.
He used
a graph of temperatures over the past millennium to make the claim that they were higher during the 12th Century than they are today.
Looking at
the graph of temperature over the last 600 million years, it shows a fairly constant 22 °C with occasional dips for ice ages.
I brought up ENSO, Jim D, because the forcing chart and AR5 models with - then - without anthro forcing
graphs of temperature over time are not reflective of what is actually happening in the oceans and the atmosphere.
Not exact matches
The resulting
graph of CO2 levels and
temperature over Earth's history was remarkable.
Mr. Cuccinelli is well known for his harassment
of Michael Mann, a climate scientist vilified by industry apologists for creating the «Hockey Stick»
graph illustrating the increase
of average global
temperature measurements
over the last millennium.
The animation zooms in on the
graph of temperatures, often times referred to as the Hockey Stick for its distinctive shape, and shows the granular changes
over time.
«It's really helpful to plot it out, to
graph it out on
graph paper [or a smartphone app],
over the course
of a month, because then you really do see the jump in
temperature,» says Dr. Pollio.
Over a period
of days or weeks, measure and
graph the outside
temperature at the beginning
of the school day, during math class or lunch recess, and at the end
of the school day.
Graph the daily high and low
temperature over the course
of several weeks or a month.
Given how much yelling takes place on the Internet, talk radio, and elsewhere
over short - term cool and hot spells in relation to global warming, I wanted to find out whether anyone had generated a decent decades - long
graph of global
temperature trends accounting for, and erasing, the short - term up - and - down flickers from the cyclical shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño — Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle.
It's the latest research in more than a decade
of work producing a climate «hockey stick» —
graphs of global or regional
temperatures showing relatively little variation
over a millennium or more and then a sharp uptick since the middle
of the twentieth century (the blade at the end
of the stick).
(Within the range where water vapor feedback is runaway, zero change in external forcing»cause s» a large change in climate; the equilibrium surface
temperature,
graphed over some measure
of external forcing, takes a step at some particular value.)
The effect
of CO2 is to cause some sort
of a valley or hill * & * in the monochromatic flux
graphed over the spectrum (* & * depending on vertical level relative to
temperature variations and whether one is considering upward or downward fluxes or the net upward flux).
But if I look at the raw and adjusted values, say at 1934, you get a raw
temperature of a little
over 87F and an adjusted
temperature of about 86.75 F but on your overlay
graph the values appear to be
over 87F for both the adjusted and raw data.
McIntyre first questioned the accuracy
of the «hockey stick»
graph that tracked the earth's
temperatures over the last 1,000 years.
But their PNAS publication also referred to natural climate cycles, superimposed on the trend line, like ENSO and solar variability, both
of which have been net contributors to global cooling
over 1998 - 2008 [so climate skeptics can not — as they still do — point to either the Sun or El Niño to explain the world's
temperature graph over that period
of time].
You've likely seen the
graph of the Earth's average global
temperature over the past 2000 years... it's mostly a straight line until you get to the industrial revolution and then it shoots up.
Roman M, Figure 1 in Hansen et al 1988, which I copied to my Post # 146 in this thread, shows the climate model control run (without any forcings) with all the trends and wiggles you might see in a
graph of actual
temperatures over recent times.
This is evident from a
graph of global
temperature anomaly
over the last 130 years:
Graph illustrating the differences between thermometer - based estimates (thick black line = CRUTEM3, thick red line = Central Europe
Temperature) and various proxy - based estimates (other lines)
of temperatures over the 19th century.
This applies to both land and water and can easily be seen in about a million
graphs of mixed layer
temperature over the course
of a year.
As for F&R, I just overlaid the F&R ENSO global
temperature influence
graph over the top
of the natural internal variability only
graph 1B.
The lack
of resolution, however, means that you can not compare their
graphing of the early Holocene with the 0.7 — 0.8 degree C.
temperature change experienced
over the course
of the 20th century.
When Dr Jones was asked by the World Meteorological Organisation to prepare a
graph of how
temperatures had changed
over the last 1000 years, he had to decide how to deal with this divergence between the datasets.
-LSB-...] blog by global warming advocate Michael Mann, creator
of the now - discredited «hockey stick»
graph that purported to show a sharp spike in global
temperatures over the last few decades.
Leif Svalgaard's argument, as I understand it, is that with the most recent and reliable reconstructions
of the history
of solar activity,
temperature change and solar activity are almost perfectly uncorrelated
over a time span
of 300 years, and the association apparent in Alec Rawls»
graph only appears in the 20th century.
This is either misleading or has the potential to be, as different sets
of data (different stations) are being compared on the same
graph of the
temperature trend
over the last 100 + years as if it's the same data source.
I notice in all the comments and published papers, that (and correct me if I am wrong) no one seems to have used the simple
graphing of the earth's mean
temperature,
over time, as evidence
of «global warming».
Even your brilliant cohort rooter's
graph shows a couple centuries
of warmer
temperatures over 2,000 years ago.
Actually Fielding's use
of that
graph is quite informative
of how denialist arguments are framed — the selected bit
of a selected
graph (and don't mention the fastest warming region on the planet being left out
of that data set), or the complete passing
over of short term variability vs longer term trends, or the other measures and indicators
of climate change from ocean heat content and sea levels to changes in ice sheets and minimum sea ice levels, or the passing
over of issues like lag time between emissions and effects on
temperatures... etc..
The
graph shows a long, relatively unwavering line
of temperatures across the last millennium (the stick), followed by a sharp, upward turn
of warming
over the last century (the blade).
25 years
of collecting unreliable (at best) and «noisy»
temperature data from all
over the face
of the world, computer modeling
over an even smaller span
of years by people working on government grants and there you have it folks, predictions
of gloom and doom for our planet with «information» extrapolated from 1850 to 2300 with all sorts
of «modeled»
graphs and pretty «manufactured» pictures offered as proof.
We can however confirm the
temperature graph does not seem to fully correspond with the rising CO2 concentrations, as both CO2 emissions keep breaking records and the rise
of the atmospheric CO2 level seems to be accelerating
over recent years.
Offhand, I don't know
of any
graphs showing this greenhouse impact
of water vapor on
temperatures over short time frames, but it generally falls into the realm
of «common knowledge».
64) Michael Mann
of Penn State University has actually shown that the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age did in fact exist, which contrasts with his earlier work which produced the «hockey stick
graph» which showed a constant
temperature over the past thousand years or so followed by a recent dramatic upturn.
There are many people who have
graphed the
temperature trends
over the past 10 years and I would love to see a page developed that compiled and compared the shifting trends created by homogenization
over recent years after the quality control
of historic data had already been completed.
«The [Hockey Stick]
graph shows a long, relatively unwavering line
of temperatures across the last millennium (the stick), followed by a sharp, upward turn
of warming
over the last century (the blade).
The same thing applies to the 9th
Graph of USHCN
Temperatures, Raw 5 - yr Smoothed, no nice upward TRENDS just 4 Step Changes
of 0.5 degree
over a couple
of years around 1920, 1930, 1950 & 1995, with a very fast Trend up
of 0.6 degree between 1978 and 1990.
Would the
graph of that site's
temperature over time look just like a hockey stick?
So when it comes down to the scientific goal
of understanding
temperature over time through the Hollocene, I think we've got a graphic that shows different proxies «taking
over» for relevant eras in which they are more robust, rather than being spliced or
graphed onto each other.
During the talk, I showed the following
graph of the Earth's total heat content, demonstrating that even
over the last decade when surface
temperature warming has slowed somewhat, the planet continues to build up heat at a rate
of 4 Hiroshima bomb detonations worth
of heat every second.
When scientists later used ice cores to tease out the pattern
of temperature and CO2 changes
over the past few hundred thousand years, they got the sort
of pattern you'd expect from the 1990 hypothesis (here's another
graph).
The climate is warming — and that means if you look at a
graph of average global
temperatures, you'll see an overall upward trend
over the last 130 years.
They did, however, have a nice voiceover stating that
temperatures haven't been this warm in 800,000 years while showing a
graph, not
of temperatures, but
of spiking CO2 levels
over the last 800,000 years.
The last
graph,
temperatures of layers with different thicknesses, is particularly misleading - the large rise in surface
temperature (very little energy involved) shown
over the deep layer
temperature changes (a huge amount
of energy) is a case
of apples / oranges.
Estimated long - term variations in average global
temperature of the atmosphere near the earth's surface are
graphed along with average troposphere CO2 levels
over the past 160,000 years.
The
graph below represents Australian
temperatures from multiple authoritative sources, including overseas agencies who prepare their own estimates
of temperature changes
over Australia.
# 55 Allen As per your comments on the flattened
temperature slope
over the past decade or so, here are a couple
of graphs which might help.
View
graphs of monthly
temperature and precipitation, plot corn and soybean yield trends, and compare climate and yields
over the past 30 years.