A recent report by two leading nonprofits, the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council, details how the 11 U.S. western states together have experienced an increase in average temperature during the last five years some 70 percent
greater than the global average rise.
Warming at higher latitudes of the Northern hemisphere may be
greater than the global average, as high as 4 to 7 °C between 2000 and 2100 (ACIA, 2004).
They added in a middle - of - the - road climate change scenario that caused high - latitude surface soil to rise 8 degrees Celsius by 2100, which is much
greater than the global average.
Forcings with significant spatial variability can have regional magnitudes much
greater than their global averages.
In case you need reminding, these higher than normal ocean temperatures fit solidly into the broader global trend towards warmer temperatures — though regionally they are much
greater than the global average (as the chart at top shows, with the red areas being up to 5 °C above normal).
Not exact matches
The hottest part of the region has been drought - stricken Arizona, where
average temperatures have risen some 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit — 120 percent
greater than the
global rise — between 2003 and 2007.
As a result, the region is already experiencing levels of acidity three-fold
greater than the
global ocean
average, with devastating impacts on the state's US$ 270 - million shellfish industry.
For example, the
global temperature change when we recovered from the last ice age
averaged only about 0.1 C per century (and descent into an ice age tended to be even slower)... whereas we are now looking at changes
greater than that happening in one decade.
* However, the same panel then concluded that «the warming trend in
global - mean surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially
greater than the
average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and
global mean temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally
averaged surface temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally
averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales
greater than the annual cycle.
Many recent studies (e.g. Hansen & Sato) have claimed that future rise in
global average temperature (GAT) will create a much
greater effect on sea level
than IPCC AR4 predicts.
Warming as measured by increased
global heat, (heat in
greater than heat out) and warming measured as increased globally
averaged temperatures are closely linked but are still different things.
Since daily ACE represents a 4 - times daily sum of wind speed squared, an «
average» September 21st could see one of the following (among other combos): One TC at 125 knots Two TCs at 90 knots Three TCs at 70 knots or Six TCs at 50 knots Current TCs = 0 September 15:
Global Hurricane Frequency [storms with maximum intensity
greater than 64 knots] has dramatically collapsed during the past 2 - 3 years.
Their work is a big step forward in helping to solve the
greatest puzzle of current climate change research — why
global average surface temperatures, while still on an upward trend, have risen more slowly in the past 10 to fifteen years
than previously.
The conclusions of most recent studies are that the MWP was on
average cooler
than today, but The
Great Global Warming Swindle, blogs and industry think tanks say otherwise, often based on graphs like this.
However — the statement that
global hydrocarbon usage (and hence CO2 production) has continued to surge
greater than the 20th Century
average, and Hansens scenario B was for less
than 20th Century
average in growth of CO2 was correct.
However, based on the variation in the distance to the sun, the variation in
global average temperature should be much
greater than 0.5 degrees.
In contrast,
global warming warms nights faster (although the effect is slight) and winters faster
than summer (which effect is not slight) so that modern US annually
averaged temperatures are
greater than those of the 1930s.
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling Observations of
Global Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially
greater than average for the past 100 years»
Commentator of your experience should realize that variability in
averaging few tens of stations (CET) is
greater than variability of many thousands (
global temperatures) but the trends and the correlation are there http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GTCet.htm The rest are wishy - washy excuses.
(1) According to the summary, there is a
greater than 90 percent likelihood that increased concentrations of man - made heat - trapping gases caused most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since 1950.
One reason for this is that «
global temperature» varies significantly over the months of the year due to seasonally varying Earth / sun geometry and the
greater land mass in the Northern Hemisphere, so that any
global average of absolute temperature, not anomalies, will be considerably higher in NH summer
than SH summer, and this will be true even in an unchanging climate.
Overall, the energy intensity of the
global economy would need to drop by a yearly
average of 2.5 % up to 2050 — three - and - a-half times
greater than the rate over the past 15 years.
Most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [
greater than 90 % likelihood] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
In the opinion of the panel, the warming trend in
global - mean surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially
greater than the
average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
Based on current knowledge, however, it appears that achieving a high probability of limiting
global average temperature rise to 2C will require that the increase in greenhouse - gas concentrations as well as all the other warming and cooling influences on
global climate in the year 2100, as compared with 1750, should add up to a net warming no
greater than what would be associated with a CO2 concentration of about 400 parts per million (ppm).
In fact, our research suggests that with 2 ℃ of
global warming, the future
average sea temperatures around the
Great Barrier Reef would be even hotter
than the extremes observed around the time of the 2016 bleaching.
Simply stated, the differential impact from the gargantuan, modern CO2 emissions on
global 5 - year
average warming should be significantly
greater than pre-modern, natural warming for 5 - year
averages.
Over the past century, that makes the sea 1.6 degrees hotter — a
greater heating
than the accepted
global average of about 1.1 degrees C (although that number doesn't account for the masking effect of pollution).
Figure 16.2: Projected number of days per year with a maximum temperature
greater than 90 °F
averaged between 2041 and 2070, compared to 1971 - 2000, assuming continued increases in
global emissions (A2) and substantial reductions in future emissions (B1).
NASA
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (Cullather et al.), 5.23 (± 3.0), Modeling (full - coupled)(Same as June) The GMAO seasonal forecasting system predicts a September
average Arctic ice extent of 5.23 ± 0.30 km2, about 13 percent
greater than the 2015 value.
The discrepancy of model to near - surface observation trends in the tropic is much
greater than for the
global average.
In the 66 % 2 °C Scenario, aggressive efficiency measures would be needed to lower the energy intensity of the
global economy by 2.5 % per year on
average between 2014 and 2050 (three - and - a-half times
greater than the rate of improvement seen over the past 15 years); wind and solar combined would become the largest source of electricity by 2030.
22 Land areas are projected to warm more
than the oceans with the
greatest warming at high latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990:
Global Average in 2085 = 3.1 o C
Only a tiny fraction of people live near the world's
great ice sheets, and for most of the world's coastlines the resulting local rise in sea level is larger
than the
global average, perhaps approaching 50 percent faster
than the
global average.
Most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [i.e. with
greater than 90 % likelihood] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
See a simple equation, having two naturally occurring independent variables, that calculates
average global temperatures since before 1900 with R ^ 2
greater than 0.9 at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com.
Even on the
global scale, the annual,
global -
averaged radiative forcing predicted by the models is significantly
greater than has been observed based on the accumulation of Joules in the climate system.
In fact the Mauna Loa or
global CO2 rise is much faster
than linear... the differences between the mauna loa /
global are negligible for the purpose of radiative transfer, and the difference in
average CO2 concentration between an «
average global» data - set and the Mauna Loa record since 1980 (for monthly values) is only 0.65 ppm (and with a correlation coefficient r
greater than 0.99) indicating that the Mauna Loa record is representative of
global - scale CO2 concentration as you'd expect with a well - mixed gas.
At 600ppm,
global average temperature rise could be in the range of 3 - 4Â °C — which means
greater sea level rise
than predicted, glaciers melting and constraining water supply throughout large areas of Asia, agriculture being severely stressed in many places,
greater storm intensity, reduced biodiversity, the end of coral reefs.
Paragrap 17 «Notes with concern that the estimated aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the intended nationally determined contributions do not fall within least - cost 2 ̊C scenarios but rather lead to a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in 2030, and also notes that much
greater emission reduction efforts will be required
than those associated with the intended nationally determined contributions in order to hold the increase in the
global average temperature to below 2 ̊C above pre-industrial levels by reducing emissions to 40 gigatonnes or to 1.5 ̊C above pre-industrial levels by reducing to a level to be identified in the special report referred to in paragraph 21 below;»
1 believe the current GAT,
global average temperature, is
greater than it would be if there was no atmosphere?
In the almost sure knowledge that the earth never experienced a runaway greenhouse even with ancient CO2 levels 10 to 20 times
greater than today, these anti-science scoundrels insist with a «high level of confidence» that this amplification is real and it's based on nothing more
than faster
than expected surface temperature rise in the past few decades which can be TOTALLY explained by multi-decadal cyclic behavior in ocean currents, trade winds, and / or solar magnetic activity causing small
global average albedo changes.