http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/cloud%20radiative%20forcing.pdf «
The greenhouse effect of clouds may be larger than that resulting from a hundredfold increase in the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere.»
Greenhouse gas clouds lower the Albedo of the Earth resulting in a lower effective emission temperature — you shouldn't count
the greenhouse effect of clouds and then not count the solar reflecting impact of the same clouds.
Not exact matches
Scientists can measure how much energy
greenhouse gases now add (roughly three watts per square meter), but what eludes precise definition is how much other factors — the response
of clouds to warming, the cooling role
of aerosols, the heat and gas absorbed by oceans, human transformation
of the landscape, even the natural variability
of solar strength — diminish or strengthen that
effect.
It may seem surprising to people, but you can look at something like Mars, which has a very thin atmosphere, and you can look at something like Venus which we tend to think
of as sort
of having this rather heavy,
clouded atmosphere, which [is] hellishly warm because
of runaway
greenhouse effect, and on both
of those planets you are seeing this phenomenon
of the atmosphere leaking away, is actually what directly has led to those very different outcomes for those planets; the specifics
of what happened as the atmosphere started to go in each case [made] all the difference.
Scientists know that the
clouds can act as a sunshield, cooling parts
of the globe and offsetting the global warming caused by the
greenhouse effect (see «Not warming, but cooling», New Scientist, 9 July 1994).
«Water evaporation and condensation processes as well as the strong
greenhouse effect of water vapor and
clouds decisively influence the energy balance
of the atmosphere and the entire planet,» says Matthias Schneider from the KIT Institute
of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK).
And higher
cloud tops create even more
of a blanketing
greenhouse effect.
As the area
of this
cloud cover grows, it reflects more
of the shortwave radiation; but as the
clouds get taller, their
greenhouse effect becomes more significant, counteracting about half
of their total cooling
effect.»
Water evaporating from the oceans may set off a runaway
greenhouse effect that turns Earth into a damp version
of Venus, wrapped permanently in a thick, white blanket
of cloud.
The amount
of energy being trapped on Earth continues to rise at a quickening pace, because
of the
effects of the thickening
cloud of greenhouse gas pollution in the atmosphere, but more
of that energy than usual has been ending up in the oceans.
Located between the orbits
of Mercury and Earth, Venus has a very thick atmosphere that is covered by a layer
of clouds that produces a «
greenhouse effect» on the planet.
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They tend to believe that as the planet warms, low - level
cloud cover will increase, thus increasing planetary albedo (overall reflectiveness
of the Earth), offsetting the increased
greenhouse effect and preventing a dangerous level
of global warming from occurring.
Note that the last remark can go either way, as the solar signal can even be more enhanced at the cost
of the sensitivity for the
greenhouse signal... And from Hansen ea.: «Solar irradiance change has a strong spectral dependence [Lean, 2000], and resulting climate changes may include indirect
effects of induced ozone change [RFCR; Haigh, 1999; Shindell et al., 1999a] and conceivably even cosmic ray
effects on
clouds [Dickinson, 1975].
The main research themes include
greenhouse gas concentrations and ecosystem — atmosphere fluxes, the climate
effects of atmospheric aerosols, aerosol —
cloud interactions and air quality.
There is a clear impact on global temperature, too, though the mechanisms are complex: heat released from the oceans; increases in water vapor, which enhance the
greenhouse effect, and redistributions
of clouds.
Four and a half billion years after its birth, the shrouded planet is much too hot to support the presence
of liquid water on its surface because
of its dense carbon dioxide atmosphere and sulfuric acid
clouds, which retain too much radiative heat from the Sun through a runaway
greenhouse effect.
«By comparing the response
of clouds and water vapor to ENSO forcing in nature with that in AMIP simulations by some leading climate models, an earlier evaluation
of tropical
cloud and water vapor feedbacks has revealed two common biases in the models: (1) an underestimate
of the strength
of the negative
cloud albedo feedback and (2) an overestimate
of the positive feedback from the
greenhouse effect of water vapor.
Data from satellite observations «suggest that
greenhouse models ignore negative feedback produced by
clouds and by water vapor, that diminish the warming
effects»
of human carbon dioxide emissions.
However, there is a price
of sorts — while locally the Asian Brown
Cloud amplifies the
greenhouse effect, globally it masks the
greenhouse effect due to the aerosol - induced global dimming.
[Response: These feedbacks are indeed modelled because they depend not on the trace
greenhouse gas amounts, but on the variation
of seasonal incoming solar radiation and
effects like snow cover, water vapour amounts,
clouds and the diurnal cycle.
Unknown is what the overall
effect of greenhouse gases / temperature was / is / will be on
cloud cover.
Kasting had one very primitive go at a radiative - convective study
of the
effect of clouds on runaway
greenhouse, which suggested that
clouds might prevent the whole ocean from going aloft.
Re 9 wili — I know
of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air /
clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part
of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from
greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the
greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive,
clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and
clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity
of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up
of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part
of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal
effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
In contrast, the albedo
effect of clouds goes up a bit slower with water content than the
greenhouse effect.
Cloud feedbacks may be complicated, but a simple rule
of thumb that emerges from that complexity is that high
clouds exert a strong
greenhouse effect and low
clouds don't.
Re # 36 Lawrence, your cousin is correct that the
greenhouse effect of water vapour, and even more so
clouds are much larger (x 2 — x 4) than that from CO2.
The mechanism which they claim to have identified is actually the opposite
of what Lindzen described, where he claimed that
clouds would increase as the result
of the
greenhouse effect and their albedo
effect would hold down temperatures, but in the tropics the
clouds that Spencer et al were dealing with presumably become fewer in number.
Spencer et al (2007) is cited as evidence for the iris
effect of Lindzen in order to conclude that the negative feedbacks to the
greenhouse effect due to
clouds will be substantial.
So with the «
greenhouse gas
effect» if I add more CO2 AND all other things remain equal, temperature will increase, but if
clouds are a regulating mechanism, adding more CO2 doesn't have to change temperature at all, just the amount
of energy required to maintain that temperature would be reduced.
That equilibrium point between solar heating
of the ocean and
clouds starving the ocean
of solar heating is in
effect a saturated
greenhouse.
Less well appreciated is that
clouds (made
of ice particles and / or liquid water droplets) also absorb infrared radiation and contribute to the
greenhouse effect, too.
and: «Earth type planetary atmospheres, having partial
cloud cover and sufficient reservoir
of water; maintain an energetically uniquely determined, constant, maximized
greenhouse effect that can not be increased further by emissions.
I propose a simple dependence
of cloud cover and water vapor
greenhouse effect on incident solar radiance which can maintains temperatures to 0.5 degrees over the last 4 billion years.
Namely, that the
greenhouse effect simply does not exist and OLR is not absorbed by that
cloud of carbon dioxide on its way to outer space.
Its warming
effect, however, is simultaneously amplified and dampened by positive and negative feedbacks such as increased water vapor (the most powerful
greenhouse gas), reduced albedo, which is a measure
of Earth's reflectivity, changes in
cloud characteristics, and CO2 exchanges with the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems.
The overall
effect of the high thin cirrus
clouds then is to enhance atmospheric
greenhouse warming.
abstract postscript pdf Pierrehumbert, RT and Erlick C 1997: On the scattering
greenhouse effect of CO2 ice
clouds.
An increased
greenhouse effect due to humidity, CO2, aerosols or
clouds is expected to produce a relative increase
of the minima with respect to the maxima and a decrease
of the diurnal range.
The ONLY
greenhouse type
of effect occurs as a result
of the
effects of clouds, especially the large and reflective type which are generally cumulous (low)
clouds and to some extent cirrus and stratos, but mostly the low
clouds.
While CO2 is indeed a
greenhouse gas, increasing concentrations
of which may be expected to have (other things being equal) a warming
effect, scientists disagree about how large that
effect may be (this is particularly affected by ignorance
of the
effect of clouds).
The Earth's surface temperature is 35 K warmer than its effective blackbody temperature, because
of the presence
of clouds and GHGs or called the natural
greenhouse effect.
Andrew Lacis wrote: (3) Water vapor and
clouds account for about 75 % the strength
of the terrestrial
greenhouse effect, but are feedback
effects that require sustained radiative forcing to maintain their atmospheric distribution.
Non-condensing
greenhouse gases, which account for 25 %
of the total terrestrial
greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels
of atmospheric water vapor and
clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75 %
of the
greenhouse effect.
The paper also makes a bit
of a digression in pointing out the erroneous and irresponsible assertion by Dick Lindzen that «about 98 %
of the natural
greenhouse effect is due to water vapour and stratiform
clouds withCO2 contributing less than 2 %».
It does magnify the night - time
greenhouse effect by warming the
clouds or the higher levels
of the atmosphere, thus increasing the amount
of heat radiated back to the surface; though the overall
effect is to reduce net planetary
greenhouse warming by limiting the temperature gradient.
Noncondensing
greenhouse gases, which account for 25 %
of the total terrestrial
greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperaturestructure that sustains the current levels
of atmospheric water vapor and
clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75 %
of the
greenhouse effect.
Instead, the aim
of our Science paper was to illustrate as clearly and as simply as possible the basic operating principles
of the terrestrial
greenhouse effect in terms
of the sustaining radiative forcing that is provided by the non-condensing
greenhouse gases, which is further augmented by the feedback response
of water vapor and
clouds.
Noncondensing
greenhouse gases, which account for 25 %
of the total terrestrial
greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels
of atmospheric water vapor and
clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75 %
of the
greenhouse effect.
(3) Water vapor and
clouds account for about 75 % the strength
of the terrestrial
greenhouse effect, but are feedback
effects that require sustained radiative forcing to maintain their atmospheric distribution.