The second is is the claim that the pattern of temperature changes over the past century can be replicated by models
including greenhouse gas forcing but not otherwise.
The answer is quite clear — warming occurred between the 1960s and 1990s, the pattern
matches greenhouse gas forcings well, and overall the continent is warming.
To be added, other
greenhouse gas forcings with their feedbacks and internal oscillations which may be — or not — enhanced by the primary forcings.
So isn't not fair to state that we see increase in TC power in recent decades, and that this is expected giving rising SST, which are driven
by greenhouse gas forcing.
«fingerprint» methods indicate that the pattern of change is closer to that expected
from greenhouse gas forced change than from natural change»
Differences between simulations including
greenhouse gas forcing only and those that also include the cooling effects of sulphate aerosols (e.g., Tett et al., 2002) indicate that the cooling effects of sulphate aerosols may account for some of the lack of observational warming between 1950 and 1970, despite increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, as was proposed by Schwartz (1993).
And the researchers say: «The projected ocean surface warming pattern under increasing
greenhouse gas forcing suggests that typhoons striking eastern mainland China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan will intensify further.
Aerosol forcing appears to have grown rapidly during the period from 1945 to 1980,
while greenhouse gas forcing grew more slowly (Ramaswamy et al., 2001).
Because high latitudes are thought to be most sensitive to
greenhouse gas forcing owing to, for example, ice - albedo feedbacks, we focus on the tropical Pacific Ocean to derive a minimum value for long - term climate sensitivity.
I think the 1975 change is attributable to two things: 1)
Greenhouse gas forcings reached sufficient magnitude that they were clearly more dominant than the variability shown in lesser positive and negative forcings.
The implication is that the gigantic fossil fuel consumption envisioned in the RCP8.5 socio - economic model could be reduced by 25 % or so and we would still achieve the 8.5 W /
m2 greenhouse gas forcing required in the model.
The monotonic increase of the cleaned global temperature throughout the 20th century suggests increasing
greenhouse gas forcing more - or-less consistently dominating sulfate aerosol forcing, although our technique can not exclude other mechanisms not contained in the current generation of model forcing (22).
It is simply that after accounting as best one can for the influence of the sun you still can't match the observed climate over the past ~ 30 - 50 years without including the effects of
additional greenhouse gas forcing.
Upper ocean temperatures have warmed significantly in most regions of the world over recent decades, with anthropogenic
greenhouse gas forcing very likely being the main contributor21.
The most likely situations in which geoengineering technologies will actually be implemented at - scale are those that occur in a high climate sensitivity world (i.e. if the climate's response to
greenhouse gas forcings leads to a larger response than science's present best - guess).
How well we can distinguish between different external influences on surface temperature (such as natural, including solar,
vs. greenhouse gas forcing) is, for example, discussed in section 9.4.1.5).
First of all it is important to note that even
pure greenhouse gas forcing will lead to a slight decrease in surface solar radiation (due to the concurrent increased humidity) and potential cloud feedbacks.