The nation's paramount nuclear power trade
group has launched a wide -
ranging strategy to help generators stay profitable
in tight markets, the head of the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) told Wall Street analysts on April 12.
let's take this to an extreme... suppose that internal variability is zero... then the «within
group» s.d. is zero... suppose that models agree pretty well with each other and observations fall within the
tight band of model projections... then by steve's method you create the average of models and call it a model... with an s.d. of zero... show that the model falls outside the observational s.d.... proclaim that the model fails... claim that this is a test of modelling... hence extrapolate that all models fail... even though observations fall slap bang
in the model
range... this result is nonsensical... per tco it isn't how models are used... where's structural uncertainty?