Based on average realisation ratios, the survey would imply only moderate
growth in nominal terms for the year, and roughly flat equipment investment in real terms.
Not exact matches
By secular reflation, we mean at least a decade
in which short - and long -
term interest rates stay habitually below
nominal GDP
growth and high grade bonds are not really bonds any more: delivering trend returns that are close to zero or even negative.
While there are some signs of recognition such as the Fed's reduction
in its estimated neutral rate from 4.5 percent to 3.0 percent during the last 2 years, the IMF's explicit use of the
term secular stagnation
in its World Economic Outlook, ECB president Mario Draghi's call for global coordination and greater use of fiscal policy, and Japan's indicated interest
in fiscal - monetary cooperation, policymakers still have not made sufficiently radical adjustments
in their world view to reflect this new reality of a world where generating adequate
nominal GDP
growth is likely to be the primary macroeconomic policy challenge for the next decade.
In that case the economy would need to slow two full percentage points, to a
nominal growth rate of 3.6 %, to match the longer -
term average.
Our model indicates that going forward, long -
term yields will likely be subject to three upward pressures: (1) Our forecasted increase
in inflation will boost
nominal GDP
growth; (2) As forward guidance is replaced by a data - dependent monetary tightening, volatility
in short rates will increase; and (3) As the impact of QE on the Treasury market fades, long -
term yields will trend back to their historical link with
nominal GDP
growth.
For expenditure on machinery and equipment,
growth of around 2 per cent is expected
in nominal terms.
In terms of the real economy, the simple answer is faster
nominal growth.
During this period, a smoothed average of
nominal growth explains almost 60 % of the variation
in long -
term rates (see the chart below).
The June quarter ABS capital expenditure (Capex) survey points to solid
growth of machinery and equipment investment
in real
terms in 2003/04, although
in nominal terms, investment is expected to fall by 3 per cent (assuming a five - year average realisation ratio), reflecting lower prices for investment goods.
I should note that
in each of these models, we're assuming a long -
term growth rate for cyclically - adjusted earnings, revenues, dividends,
nominal GDP and so forth of about 6.3 % annually.
Coming to wage
growth, the average annual weekly earnings of employees
in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation) increased by 2.2 percent with bonuses and 2.1 percent excluding bonuses.
In that case the economy would need to slow two full percentage points, to a
nominal growth rate of 3.6 %, to match the longer -
term average.
And America is a
growth company, even if it is only growing at 2 % instead of 3 %
in real
terms or 4 % instead of 6 %
in nominal terms at the time being.
In nominal terms, this is GDP
growth of 10 %, which is so far above the average GDP
growth that investors fail to anticipate it, and therefore misprice equities.
Over the period 2005 - 2016, rates and taxes grew at an annualized rate of inflation +8.2 % equating to a compound annual
growth rate of 12.1 %
in nominal terms.