They found increases
in sea surface temperature and upper
ocean heat content made the
ocean more conducive to tropical cyclone intensification, while enhanced convective instability made the atmosphere more favorable for the
growth of these storms.
Even with these possible issues, it buys us 50 years of economic
growth and technological development and a net reduction
in the
heat content of the
ocean, that the future warming must overcome.
Looking at the last decade, it is clear that the observed rate of change of upper
ocean heat content is a little slower than previously (and below linear extrapolations of the pre-2003 model output), and it remains unclear to what extent that is related to a reduction
in net radiative forcing
growth (due to the solar cycle, or perhaps larger than expected aerosol forcing
growth), or internal variability, model errors, or data processing — arguments have been made for all four, singly and together.