The growth of household debt Number of mortgages delinquent 60 or 90 days Number of car loans that are delinquent Growth of student loans Delinquent student loans
In recent years we have given a lot of attention to
the growth of household debt and its possible effects on the macro economy.
Not exact matches
Debt levels for the average Canadian
household are moving down (perhaps we've been taking those warnings from the Bank
of Canada to heart), and as a result there's been «modest»
growth in consumer spending, said Ferley.
The IIF said Argentina, Nigeria, Turkey and China recorded the largest buildup in
debt ratios over the year, the latter fueled by ongoing
growth in indebtedness
of households and the nation's finance sector.
Their newest paper uses historical data from multiple countries to show that an increase in the ratio
of household debt to gross domestic product over a three - to - four - year period predicts a decline in economic
growth.
According to a report released Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank
of New York, a substantial increase in
household debt in 2016 was led largely by
growth in student
debt and auto
debt.
That's a drag on
growth, but a welcome one if it means
households have begun doing something about record levels
of debt.
If we came to learn that excessive
household debt posed a bigger threat to economic
growth than does a certain level
of government
debt, then policy makers would want to take that into account when setting interest rates.
Subjects touched upon by Poloz during his speech and the ensuing round
of questions also included fostering ties with the emerging economies
of India, China, and Brazil, and the
growth in
household debt among Canadians.
Of course, rock - bottom rates and a strong Canadian dollar, he added, are the opposite of what the Canadian economy needs right now in order to kick its current addiction to household debt and condos and switch to a more sustainable growth model fuelled by exports and business investmen
Of course, rock - bottom rates and a strong Canadian dollar, he added, are the opposite
of what the Canadian economy needs right now in order to kick its current addiction to household debt and condos and switch to a more sustainable growth model fuelled by exports and business investmen
of what the Canadian economy needs right now in order to kick its current addiction to
household debt and condos and switch to a more sustainable
growth model fuelled by exports and business investment.
NerdWallet's 2017
household debt study shows that several major spending categories have outpaced income
growth over the past decade; many Americans are putting medical expenses on credit cards; and the average indebted
household is paying hundreds
of dollars in credit card interest each year.
So, in summary these are some
of the themes we might expect to see in the next chapter — the impact
of technology and the
growth of Asia; the normalisation
of monetary conditions; the effects
of higher levels
of household debt; and the capability
of our workforce and businesses to be flexible, innovative and adaptable.
Indeed, the strong
growth of investor housing loans has driven the
growth in
household debt (as a share
of disposable incomes) over recent years and contributed to a rise in both housing prices and dwelling construction.
A long period
of lacklustre wage
growth suggests the only way
households can satisfy their spending habits is to keep adding to Canada's record pile
of private
debt.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank
of Canada, budgets, China, Conservative government, deficits, economic crisis, economic
growth, employment, exchange rates, federal budget, fiscal policy, global crisis,
household debt, IMF, interest rates, labour market, macroeconomics, manufacturing, monetary policy, recession, stimulus, unemployment.
Growth in household credit has remained relatively stable at around 5.5 per cent since the beginning of the year, a pace below the historical average (Chart 22), following an extended period of rapid growth that led to a substantial buildup in household
Growth in
household credit has remained relatively stable at around 5.5 per cent since the beginning
of the year, a pace below the historical average (Chart 22), following an extended period
of rapid
growth that led to a substantial buildup in household
growth that led to a substantial buildup in
household debt.
The real issue that was not addressed in the budget is the absence
of any economic engine to spur a recovery in
growth in 2014 and beyond, The
household sector is deep in
debt; housing construction has stalled; companies lack confidence and are not investing; the federal and provincial governments are in serious restraint mode; and the export sector is weak and deteriorating.
Without a massive transfer
of wealth from the state sector to the
household sector it will be impossible, I would argue, for GDP
growth rates
of anything above 3 - 4 % — and perhaps even less — to occur without a further unsustainable increase in
debt, whether that increase occurs inside or outside the formal banking system and whether or not discipline has been imposed on borrowers.
«However, historically high levels
of household debt and low wage
growth will offset some
of the positive impact
of recent strong employment data, so consumers are likely to remain cautious.»
The PBO identified four key downside risks to the private sector forecast: global
growth, especially in the U.S. could be slower than anticipated; the appreciation
of the Canadian dollar could adversely affect exports; sovereign
debt issues in Europe could restrain recovery there and put upward pressure on global interest rates; and the high level
of household debt in Canada could restrain domestic demand.
Posted by Nick Falvo under Bank
of Canada, banks, budgets, Conservative government, consumers, deficits, economic
growth, economic models, economic thought, employment, Europe, exchange rates, federal budget, fiscal policy,
household debt, housing, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, oil and gas, prices, Role
of government, social indicators, tar sands, US.
And by that we mean bring an end to double - digit price gains, bring about a steep correction in house prices to levels the city's lowly middle - class incomes can afford, bring about an end to staggering
household debt levels and ultimately, bring about the end
of housing as the economy's engine
of growth?
Report to CMHC warns steady climb
of household debt - to - GDP level puts Canada's economic
growth prospects at risk
Although it is less than 2 per cent
of total
household debt,
growth in margin lending has accounted for over a fifth
of the rise in banks» personal lending (excluding credit cards) since 1996.
The
debt - servicing ratio on
household borrowing has now surpassed its late 1980s peak, and is set to rise further over the first half
of 2004, given current rates
of household credit
growth.
This report marks the fifth consecutive year
of positive annual
household debt growth.»
Over the past year, the strong pace
of debt accumulation has outstripped the
growth in the
household sector's assets, despite further significant gains in housing wealth (Table 9).
These changes have resulted in a significant upward shift in the ratio
of household debt to GDP, and thus a period
of above - average credit
growth.
The
growth of gross
household debt has seen the
household sector's
debt to income ratio on a gradually rising trend for much
of the past decade.
Over the year to February, credit to the
household sector grew by 11 per cent, compared with
growth in
households» nominal income which has been running at around 5 per cent; much
of the
growth in
debt has occurred in home mortgages.
Growth has been fueled by the growth of household and foreign debt rather than by business investment, and we have become dangerously reliant on the resource s
Growth has been fueled by the
growth of household and foreign debt rather than by business investment, and we have become dangerously reliant on the resource s
growth of household and foreign
debt rather than by business investment, and we have become dangerously reliant on the resource sector.
Despite the rhetoric
of both the Democratic and Republican parties heralding the U.S. as a republic
of stockholders, Phillips observes that «middle - class families held (just) 2.8 percent
of the total
growth in stock market holdings between 1989 and 1998, but accounted for 38.7 percent
of the rise in
household debt.»
In particular, a massive overhang
of debt from a decade - long boom when economic
growth was based on unsustainable
household borrowing, unrealistic house prices, dangerously high banking leverage, and a failure
of governments to put their public finances in order.
The housing market has been a major driver
of economic
growth across the country in the last decade and this nurtured consumer confidence in taking on
household debt.
•
Growth in
household debt slowed to 0.9 % in the first quarter, driven by a slower rate
of borrowing in consumer credit and mortgage loans, Statistics Canada said Friday.
The presentation contained a warning: the steady climb
of the
household debt - to - GDP level had put Canada's long - term economic
growth prospects at risk.
Canadian
households were already stretched before the holidays, with the pace
of debt growth far outstripping wages over the last decade or so.
«However, the long - run negative effects
of debt eventually outweigh their short - term positive effects, with
household debt accumulation ultimately proving to be a drag on
growth.»
OTTAWA — Canadian
household debt rose to a new record high in the fourth quarter
of last year, fuelled in large part by mortgage
growth.
TD Bank economist Diana Petramala said low interest rates have allowed
households to take on more
debt, mostly backed by mortgages, and predicted the
growth in
debt will outpace income
growth in the first half
of this year.
Poloz then specified that these uncertainties comprise: inflation, the degree
of excess capacity, continued softness in wage
growth, and the elevated level
of household debt.
Yes, the Canadian housing market remains vulnerable to some weakness, and yes, more credit
growth appears unsustainable for
households that already have
debt - to - income ratios
of 170 per cent.
«I will continue to act to ensure that
household debt levels are sustainable, that lenders are acting prudently and that increases in interest rates or a housing market downturn don't risk the economic
growth we are working so hard to accelerate,» Morneau said in a speech to the Toronto Region Board
of Trade.
As CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld noted recently, much
of the
growth in
household borrowing is coming from those who already have high
debt burdens, not «less indebted families getting drawn to the punch bowl by the promise
of low [interest] rates.»
I think this example is pretty instructive as it shows that a declining US
household debt to income ratio resulted in a lower
growth rate but not a complete collapse in their economy (
of course excluding the 2008 - 09 recession which was short - lived).
Another area
of growth has been the rise in
household credit in the form
of mortgage
debt.
While rising rents and lack
of inventory might nudge renters into buying a home, National Association
of Realtors ® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun points out that tight credit standards, student
debt, and the
growth of multigenerational
households are contributing to the lowest number
of first - time home buyers in decades (as shown in the 2014 NAR Profile
of Home Buyers and Sellers).
Demographics, supply, demand, migration, regulatory changes, population
growth, home prices, interest rates,
household debt, employment... All
of these and more are impacting the local and national housing markets.