Our BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) forecast has long been more optimistic on
growth than consensus, but recently the consensus estimates have caught up with the BII, which strikes us as a good contrarian indicator.
Not exact matches
Tuesday's below -
consensus ISM and construction spending report, along with a hotter -
than - expected prices paid report, played perfectly into the bear narrative of slower
growth and higher inflation.
While it represented the second - consecutive quarter of decline, the adjusted figure topped
consensus expectations by roughly a nickel, thanks to higher gross margins and better -
than - anticipated
growth in revenues.
On the short - side of the yield curve, the
consensus seems to interpret the Federal Open Market Committee's recent use of the word «gradual» as an indication that it will allow inflation to run higher
than 2 % in order to make up for the last 20 years of below - target
growth.
Of course, a new
consensus that Canada's productivity is actually better
than previously estimated shouldn't discourage the adoption of measures in government and industry targeted at improving productivity
growth.
We expect emerging market
growth to quicken in 2018, and still see robust
growth in Europe, albeit at a slower pace
than consensus.
The ADP and ISM reports suggest a weaker
than consensus report, although unemployment claims suggest stronger job
growth.
The BlackRock GPS — which combines traditional economic indicators with big data signals such as web searches and text mining of corporate conference calls — suggests a higher
growth rate over the coming 12 months
than currently reflected in
consensus estimates.
The cruise operator said that earnings
growth was stronger
than most had expected after posting a 9 % boost to revenue, and guidance for the first quarter and full year in 2017 was better
than the
consensus forecast among those following the stock.
However, a survey of German consumers, who have made a significant contribution to driving
growth in Europe's largest economy, came in higher
than consensus expectations during February, as the country's tight labor market bolstered confidence.
In another well - flagged move, the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates in the United Kingdom (UK) for the first time since the global financial crisis, following data showing third - quarter UK
growth was a little higher
than consensus forecasts.
This was slightly better
than the
consensus estimate of around 2 percent, even as real GDP eased from 2.9 percent
growth in the fourth quarter data.
This overall agenda would not differ from those of most liberal Protestant or Jewish groups — except in the high level of
consensus, and in the fact that the most important religious goal for UUs is «a community for shared values» (rather
than theology or personal
growth or social change or experiences of transcendence).
Most of those who study this in the bodybuilding community have come to a
consensus that IGF - 1's impact on muscle
growth is due to its capacity for localization as the IGF - 1 released by our livers is different
than that which is produced by our muscle tissues.
The federal law focuses on «proficiency» rather
than «
growth» as a factor in assessing a school's performance, but a
consensus among education experts has emerged that both should be considered in evaluating a school's performance.
As evidenced by the U.S. Department of Education's recent move to allow states flexibility in using
growth models to calculate average yearly progress, there is a growing
consensus that indicators of teacher effectiveness should be based on student
growth rather
than on predetermined levels of performance.
And historical tendencies continued to play out since Canada saw a net increase of 22.2 K jobs in August, which is more
than the
consensus for a 15K increase, and is a faster pace of jobs
growth compare to the previous month's +10.9 K.
Profits should come in on the high end of that range if the economy produces closer to three percent GDP
growth in 2015 and 2016; this is the current economic
consensus rather
than the two percent annual GDP
growth the economy has seen throughout the recovery from the financial crisis.
Of the companies reporting, more
than half missed
consensus estimates for the fourth quarter by less
than $ 0.02 per share, and four firms reported positive FFO
growth.
Also, the Institute for Supply Management reported a greater slowing in
growth in the non-manufacturing industry in December
than the market
consensus forecast.»