Did you ever hear the story of a fancy ship that ran into an
iceberg on its maiden voyage and sank as a result, killing more than
half of the people
on board because there were not enough lifeboats?
The last time a large
iceberg calved from Antarctica was in 2002, when a chunk about
half the size of the Larsen C
iceberg calved from a different ice shelf
on the Antarctic Peninsula, Larsen B (SN: 3/30/02, p. 197).
The present environment is characterized by unusually overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions, with rising 10 - year Treasury bond yields, heavy insider selling, valuations
on «forward earnings» appearing reasonable only because profit margins are more than 70 % above historical norms (fully explained by the negative sum of government and personal savings as a share of GDP), with the S&P 500 at a 4 - year market high, in a mature market advance, with lagging employment indicators still positive but more than
half of all OECD countries already in GDP contraction, Europe in recession, Britain
on the cusp, and the EU imposing massive losses
on depositors in order to protect lenders in an unstable banking system where Cyprus is the
iceberg's tip.