Back in the bear market of 2003, when I was trading index arbitrage, I was getting disillusioned with trading (
this happens in bear markets) and was contemplating my next career as a newsletter writer.
It's easy to imagine that
happening in a bear market, when investors are no longer in a buying mood.
Not exact matches
It will be interesting to see what
happens when the next
bear market rolls
in.
However, although sharp corrections are somewhat rare (they have only occurred
in nine years since 1962), they have
happened more often during bull
markets than during
bear markets, and thus have often presented buying opportunities historically.
In addition, all of this
happened following the nine - year anniversary of the bull
market, which began on March 9, 2009, and 10 years after the bailout of
Bear Stearns.
In today's report, we will review what that
bear super-cycle looks like for oil, what forces are conspiring to keep oil prices range - bound for years to come, and what would need to
happen for a bull
market to begin.
• The Economy ≠ The Stock
Market (Irrelevant Investor) see also Strong Jobs
Market, Weak Stock
Market (A Wealth of Common Sense) • Here's What
Happened To All 53 of Marissa Mayer's Yahoo Acquisitions (Gizmodo) • Brexit and Democracy (Mainly Macro) see also Brexit pricing precedents: an empirical study (Macro Man) • Hedge fund fee structure consumes 80 % of alpha (FT) • How to Psychologically Prepare Clients for
Bear Markets (Advisor Perspectives) • Kansas» experiment
in conservative economics still a bust (Chicago Tribune) • Ego is the Enemy: The Legend of Genghis Khan (Farnam Street) • Be Wary Of Claims About How The Orlando Attack Will Affect The Election (FiveThirtyEight) see also Florida cut $ 100 million from its mental hospitals.
Vaitheeswaran brings to these questions the respect for
markets and marketlike mechanisms of a writer for the Economist, the understanding of technology of an M.I.T. - trained engineer, and the sympathy for the plight of the world's poor of an individual
born in India — all of which he
happens to be.
Look at what almost destroyed the banking industry along with the housing
market back
in 2008
happened precisely because people bought
in at a low - interest rate and forgot that
in a short period of time 4 to 5 years the rate would then go up to whatever the
market would
bear at the time.
Also
bear in mind, Hallett adds, that nobody actually knows what's going to
happen to the
market in 2016 — even someone as distinguished as Roberts.
While it's natural to focus on the carnage
bear markets inflict, it's just as important to remember what
happens in their aftermath — namely, stocks usually rebound quickly for big gains.
Bear markets, defined as a period where the
market goes down 20 % or more — from peak to trough,
happen frequently —
in the last 108 years — from 1900 — 2008 — it has
happened 32 times, or about 1 out of every 3 years.
This has
happened in past
bear markets.
I can tell you that if we are indeed heading into a
bear market, what
happens next is very predictable: The
market leaders will take a beating
in the gauntlet.
Sure enough, a quick glance at the DAA performance
in Chart 3 of this second
bear -
market period reveals that... wait, what
happened to the
bear market?
But I can tell you that if we are indeed heading into a
bear market, what
happens next is very predictable: The
market leaders will take a beating
in the gauntlet.
One of them has to do with
bear markets, which
happen regularly; the long growth stretch that began
in 1983 and lasted through the 1990s has not been the norm.
There's no rule that says we have to go through a
bear market in credit before that
happens, but that is the ordinary way that excesses get purged.
I am also interested to see what
happens when the next
bear market rolls
in and how I will react.
For one thing, emergencies always seem to
happen at the most inopportune times, like
in the middle of a
bear market.
IMO - When you try to make the claim that index funds DO N'T perform badly
in bear markets just because they
happen to do better than actively managed funds, you are really doing your readers a major disservice.
Stack's record isn't perfect —
in early 2016 he called a
bear market that never
happened — but it's been excellent over the long run, and going back to the 1987 stock
market crash, he's had a knack for spotting bubbles.
In a
bear market, if you are too concentrated, you never know what can
happen to your stocks.
We will look at what
happens to high - yield funds
in bear markets in a later letter.
Given China's growing number of cars, along with other pollution sources — and Coke's growing
market share
in China, bolstered by its offer this week to buy Huiyuan, the country's largest juice maker — the machines couldn't come at a better time for the environment.How it
happened Refrigerators used to rely on CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) for cooling — until it was discovered they were
boring a hole
in the ozone layer.
Not many times
in the past has it
happened that the entire cryptocurrency
market goes into
bear run for three months
in a row.
I noted that occasionally listings expire, and that led me to tell her that when that does
happen it is the agent who has
borne all the related expenditures («never» getting paid
in that situation), and even so, sometimes, also when a listing does sell and doesn't close and has to be
marketed all over again.