And fairly small shifts in
headline voting intention (particularly an increase in support for the Liberal Democrats) could change the result under A.V. significantly, given their advantage in second and third preferences.
A new ComRes poll for Tuesday's Independent has
headline voting intention figures, with changes from last month, of CON 40 % -LRB--1), LAB 27 % -LRB--6), LDEM 18 % (+2) and Others 14 %.
Since our previous poll, we have made a change to
our headline voting intention.
Without this change
the headline voting intentions would have been Conservative (42 %), Labour (34 %), Lib Dems (9 %) and UKIP (5 %).
A poll for tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph will, ConservativeHome understands, have solidly good news for David Cameron - on personal ratings and
headline voting intentions.
A new ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror has
headline voting intentions (with changes from ICM's last poll) of CON 36 % (nc), LAB 35 % (+3), LDEM 19 % -LRB--3).
Not exact matches
The poll's figures for general election
voting intentions are not as bad but still not good: although the
headline figures are Con 31 %, Lab 36 %, LD 9 %, UKIP 15 %, of those who
voted Labour in 2010, 9 % are said to be intending to
vote UKIP.