The three
heat content analyses cover different periods but where they overlap in time there is good agreement.
The ocean
heat content analysis by Barnett (and in other groups) show that the changes are most consistent with the GHGs becoming increasingly dominant over this time.
Not exact matches
But when the first
analyses of past ocean
heat content changes appeared around the turn of the century they were rightly labelled «the smoking gun».
This
analysis is performed in An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950 (Murphy 2009) which adds up
heat content from the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice.
However, the large - scale nature of
heat content variability, the similarity of the Levitus et al. (2005a) and the Ishii et al. (2006)
analyses and new results showing a decrease in the global
heat content in a period with much better data coverage (Lyman et al., 2006), gives confidence that there is substantial inter-decadal variability in global ocean
heat content.
Examination of the geographical distribution of the differences in 0 to 700 m
heat content between the 1977 — 1981 and 1965 — 1969 pentads and the 1986 — 1990 and 1977 — 1981 pentads shows that the pattern of
heat content change has spatial scales of entire ocean basins and is also found in similar
analyses by Ishii et al. (2006).
A total of 2.3 million salinity profiles were used in this
analysis, about one - third of the amount of data used in the ocean
heat content estimates in Section 5.2.2.
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison of sea - surface temperatures and upper ocean
heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of cooling is observed at the surface, although much less than the cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST trend — but again, no actual data
analysis of the SST trend is reported.
Ultimately I suspect it will also have significant implications for
analyses of changes in total oceanic
heat content.
Despite the fact that there are differences between these three ocean
heat content estimates due to the data used, quality control applied, instrumental biases, temporal and spatial averaging and
analysis methods (Appendix 5.
Another problem with Curry's
analysis is that she simply eyeballs the ocean
heat content graph in Lyman & Johnson (2013) and concludes that since 2003, the data look flat.
When the first
analyses of Ocean
Heat Content calculated from old temperature data from the oceans where first published in the early 2000's, they were described as the «Smoking Gun».
They are simply a first estimate.Where multiple
analyses of the biases in other climatological variables have been produced, for example tropospheric temperatures and ocean
heat content, the resulting spread in the estimates of key parameters such as the long - term trend has typically been signicantly larger than initial estimates of the uncertainty suggested.
This is the first time this has been done for an historical SST
analysis so we were keenly aware of what has happened when biases in other variables — troposphere temperatures and ocean
heat content are the prime examples — have been assessed.
The evolution of global mean surface temperatures, zonal means and fields of sea surface temperatures, land surface temperatures, precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, vertically integrated diabatic
heating and divergence of atmospheric energy transports, and ocean
heat content in the Pacific is documented using correlation and regression
analysis.
We present an
analysis to illustrate why temperature values at specific levels will depend on wind speed, and with the same boundary layer
heat content change, trends in temperature should be expected to be different at every height near the surface when the winds are light, as well as different between light wind and stronger wind nights.
New
analyses indicate that global ocean
heat content has increased significantly since the late 1950s.
Global hydrographic variability patterns during 2003 — 2008 (Schuckmann 2009)
analyses ocean temperature measurements by the Argo network, constructing a map of ocean
heat content down to 2000 metres (H / T to Chris for bringing it to my attention).
Heat moves around the ocean in mysterious ways, and as Trenberth notes there are considerable areas of uncertainty in deep water measurements, Arctic heat content and the analysis techniques themsel
Heat moves around the ocean in mysterious ways, and as Trenberth notes there are considerable areas of uncertainty in deep water measurements, Arctic
heat content and the analysis techniques themsel
heat content and the
analysis techniques themselves.
We are still going to have to wait for the «definitive» ocean
heat content numbers, however, it is important to note that all
analyses give long term increases in ocean
heat content — particularly in the 1990s — whether they include the good ARGO data or exclude the XBTs or not).
The
analysis by Trenberth and Fasullo (2010) of the total energy budget, which reveals missing energy in recent years because the ocean
heat content has not kept up with the excess of incoming radiation at the top of atmosphere, reveals shortcomings in the total observing system.
Church et al 2011 extends the
analysis of Murphy 2009 which calculated the Earth's total
heat content through to 2003.
«The assessment is supported additionally by a complementary
analysis in which the parameters of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) were constrained using observations of near - surface temperature and ocean
heat content, as well as prior information on the magnitudes of forcings, and which concluded that GHGs have caused 0.6 °C to 1.1 °C (5 to 95 % uncertainty) warming since the mid-20th century (Huber and Knutti, 2011); an
analysis by Wigley and Santer (2013), who used an energy balance model and RF and climate sensitivity estimates from AR4, and they concluded that there was about a 93 % chance that GHGs caused a warming greater than observed over the 1950 — 2005 period; and earlier detection and attribution studies assessed in the AR4 (Hegerl et al., 2007b).»
Consensuses and discrepancies of basin - scale ocean
heat content changes in different ocean
analyses
Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, «
Analysis of the Relationship Between the
Heat and Carbon
Content of U.S. Coals,» September 1992.
You might get better results using data starting in 1850 (or 1851 — there is a slight jump) rather than 1900, and TOA radiative imbalance rather than ocean
heat content data, for your
analysis.
From the more than 60,000 coal samples in the File, 5,426 were identified as containing data on
heat value and the ultimate
analysis (6) needed for developing the relationship between carbon and
heat content of the coal, that is, the carbon dioxide emission factors.
8For details, see «
Analysis of the Relationship Between the
Heat and Carbon
Content of U.S. Coals,» prepared for the Energy Information Administration, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, by Science Applications International Corp., September 1992.
Several independent
analyses of hundreds of thousands of measurements show that the ocean
heat content began a steady rise in the 1970s.
However, for the purposes of this
analysis it doesn't matter, since the swings in ocean
heat content are nowhere near large enough to balance the budget.
A total of 2.3 million salinity profiles were used in this
analysis, about one - third of the amount of data used in the ocean
heat content estimates in Section 5.2.2.
Considering Earth's average surface temperature as a reasonable metric (something more along the lines of total surface
heat content is probably better, but average T is not a bad proxy for that), the standard systems theory
analysis from the physical constraints implies that that average T is determined and constrained through a feedback process.