«It's likely that due to the poor observational coverage, we just haven't been able to say definitively what the long - term rate of Southern
Hemisphere ocean warming has been,» says Dr. Durack.
While these three types of measurements together suggest that our estimates of northern
hemisphere ocean warming are about right, a different story emerged for down south.
How much has the North Atlantic and northern
hemisphere oceans warmed since then?
This means that when the Hadley cell extends poleward as the climate warms, the contraction of the high clouds remains largely unbalanced and the surface of the southern
hemisphere oceans warms.
Not exact matches
These large Northern
Hemisphere cooling events have previously been linked to a change in the Atlantic
Ocean circulation that led to a reduced transport of
warm water to the high latitudes in the North.
The Arctic took another 3,000 - 4,000 years to
warm this much, primarily because of the fact that the Northern
Hemisphere had huge ice sheets to buffer
warming, and the fact that changes in
ocean currents and Earth's orbital configuration accelerated
warming in the south.
They concluded that the upper levels of the planet's
oceans — those of the northern and southern
hemispheres combined — had been
warming during several decades prior to 2005 at rates that were 24 to 58 percent faster than had previously been realized.
Research published Sunday concluded that the upper 2,300 feet of the Southern
Hemisphere's
oceans may have
warmed twice as quickly after 1970 than had previously been thought.
Durack and his colleagues at LLNL found that the Southern
Hemisphere's
oceans have
warmed at a higher rate over the past 35 years than previously thought.
However, for the globe as a whole, surface air temperatures over land have risen at about double the
ocean rate after 1979 (more than 0.27 °C per decade vs. 0.13 °C per decade), with the greatest
warming during winter (December to February) and spring (March to May) in the Northern
Hemisphere.
For the change in annual mean surface air temperature in the various cases, the model experiments show the familiar pattern documented in the SAR with a maximum
warming in the high latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere and a minimum in the Southern
Ocean (due to ocean heat uptak
Ocean (due to
ocean heat uptak
ocean heat uptake)(2)
Consistent with observed changes in surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction in glacier and small ice cap (not including Antarctica and Greenland) mass and extent in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased in many regions of the Northern
Hemisphere; sea ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in spring and summer (Chapter 4); the
oceans are
warming; and sea level is rising (Chapter 5).
The warmth was due to the near - record strong El Niño that developed during the Northern
Hemisphere spring in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific
Ocean and to large regions of record warm and much warmer - than - average sea surface temperatures in parts of every major ocean b
Ocean and to large regions of record
warm and much
warmer - than - average sea surface temperatures in parts of every major
ocean b
ocean basin.
The earth absorbs more sunlight during the southern
hemisphere summer when the darker (all that
ocean) southern
hemisphere is pointed more towards the sun This seasonal cycle may be large enough to overwhwlm the
warming from CO2 etc for a year or so, thus on a seasonal scale the rise may not be monotonic.
The important point the study makes is that the onset of
warming in the tropical
ocean in the 1830s is earlier than is typically assumed from the instrumental record and from other proxy reconstructions that have focused mainly on Northern
Hemisphere land temperatures.
Partly this has to do with changes in
ocean circulation taking
warmer water deeper and partly as the result of the southern
hemisphere having less land mass and more
ocean — where the
ocean has a higher thermal inertia, meaning that it takes longer for those waters to
warm.
The first issue is that because of the large heat capacity of the southern
oceans,
warming trends are in general going to be smaller than in the northern
hemisphere.
Right now there are 4 persistant cold spots and 4
warmer than usual spots in the
oceans of Southern
hemisphere at nicely spaced intervals.
«Others have identified the lags in the southern
ocean (which
warms more slowly than the northern
hemisphere, and northern land in particular) as the source of this time dependence of feedbacks, and we've demonstrated that different forcings have subtly different impacts — `
«Others have identified the lags in the southern
ocean (which
warms more slowly in the northern
hemisphere, and northern land in particular)» seems to be missing a «than», perhaps instead of «in».
If the models don't reflect such differences in radiation balance between the
hemispheres, then there is something wrong with the models... But globally, the
oceans are
warming (much) faster in the NH than in the SH...
Others have identified the lags in the southern
ocean (which
warms more slowly than the northern
hemisphere, and northern land in particular) as the source of this time dependence of feedbacks, and we've demonstrated that different forcings have subtly different impacts — to some extent based on their spatial signatures.
Other forcings, including the growth and decay of massive Northern
Hemisphere continental ice sheets, changes in atmospheric dust, and changes in the
ocean circulation, are not likely to have the same kind of effect in a future
warming scenario as they did at glacial times.
In both
hemispheres, land regions have
warmed at a faster rate than the
oceans in the past few decades, consistent with the much greater thermal inertia of the
oceans.
Re: # 8 Wayne Davidson: I always understood that the Southern
Hemisphere was tending to wamr more slowly than the Northern
Hemisphere simply because the NH has more land than the SH and the land is
warming up more quickly than the
oceans.
In contrast, current global
warming is occuring in both
hemispheres and particularly throughout the world's
oceans, indicating a significant energy imbalance.
The Southern
Hemisphere and its
oceans warmed first, starting about 18,000 years ago.
Surface temperatures over land regions have
warmed at a faster rate than over the
oceans in both
hemispheres.
The northern
hemisphere has
warmed faster than the southern because there's more land in the north than the south, and land has far less thermal inertia than
ocean.
The team estimate that the extent of
warming in the southern
hemisphere oceans since 1970 could be more than twice what has been inferred from the limited direct measurements we have for this region.
As discussed in the following section, the absence of significant
warming in the Circumpolar
Ocean of the Southern hemisphere is attributable mainly to the large thermal inertia of the ocean, which results from very effective mixing between the surface layer and the deeper layers of ocean in this re
Ocean of the Southern
hemisphere is attributable mainly to the large thermal inertia of the
ocean, which results from very effective mixing between the surface layer and the deeper layers of ocean in this re
ocean, which results from very effective mixing between the surface layer and the deeper layers of
ocean in this re
ocean in this region.
In the Northern
Hemisphere, the surface
warming increases with increasing latitude, and is particularly large in the Arctic
Ocean.
The Northern
Hemisphere oceans have not
warmed during the ARGO era even to depths of 2000 meters: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/05/03/ocean-heat-content-0-to-2000-meters-why-arent-northern-
hemisphere-
oceans-warming-during-the-argo-era/
If so, could that account for some of the recent divergence between land and
ocean warming, since the northern
hemisphere has most of the land mass?
The end point is likely about right, today is about as
warm or
warmer than the MWP in the Northern
Hemisphere, but what about the SH and the
oceans?
Credit: NASA] The study notes that the world's
warming is greatest at high latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere, and it is larger over land than over
ocean areas.
It was predominantly
warmer than average over the extratropical
oceans of the southern
hemisphere and over the North Pacific, but colder than average to the south - west of South America.
We need to be careful focussing upon «trends» — it can lead to serious errors of context — and this underlies the entire «global
warming» thesis which relies upon computer models with entirely false (i.e. non-natural) notions of an equilibrium starting point and calculations of trend — this conveniently ignores cycles, and it has to because a) there are several non-orbital cycles in motion (8 - 10 yr, 11, 22, 60, 70, 80, 400 and 1000 - 1500) depending on
ocean basic,
hemisphere and global view — all interacting via «teleconnection» of those
ocean basins, some clearly timed by solar cycles, some peaking together; b) because the cycles are not exact, you can not tell in any one decade where you are in the longer cycles.
It was generally
warmer than average over the extratropical
oceans of the southern
hemisphere and over the North Pacific.
Oceans warm in the southern
hemisphere summer — and
warms less — with less
ocean exposed to the sun — in the northern
hemisphere summer.
And the climate models seem to get the
warming rate of sea surface temperatures just right for the smallest portion of the global
oceans, the extratropical Northern
Hemisphere (24N - 90N).
Results show that the upper 1000 m of the Southern
Hemisphere ocean has
warmed substantially during this time period at all depths.
This paper is a «one year anniversary» non-event, in an apparent attempt to get everyone's attention off of IPCC, Climategate, unexplained lack of
warming of both the atmosphere and the upper
ocean, unusually harsh winters across the northern
hemisphere, loss of public confidence and trust and a host of other worries for the «alarming AGW faithful».
«Climate change» is a broader term that includes many other impacts resulting from global
warming (for example., changes in precipitation and
ocean acidity) and different geographic scales (for example, a continent, an
ocean, a
hemisphere, the planet).
They also found
warming was twice as rapid in the Northern than the Southern
hemisphere, due again to
ocean dampening, since there is more
ocean mass in the Southern than Northern
hemisphere.
Tomorrow we'll pay attention to that very interesting new study about clouds — a bombshell we think — but today we have another one that should serve as a foundation to scientific thinking about climate forcing, namely the suggestion that «not all climate forcers are equal» — equal in the way they act as a cooling or
warming force, considering important factors like time scale and the geographical characteristics of a planet with a 3D atmosphere and a northern
hemisphere with land masses and a southern
hemisphere with just mainly a lot of
oceans.
The best way to envision the relation between ENSO and precipitation over East Africa is to regard the Indian
Ocean as a mirror of the Pacific
Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies [much like the Western
Hemisphere Warm Pool creates such a SST mirror with the Atlantic
Ocean too]: during a La Niña episode, waters in the eastern Pacific are relatively cool as strong trade winds blow the tropically Sun -
warmed waters far towards the west.
These models predicted that the Northern
Hemisphere Polar region would
warm fastest and first, that the Southern
Ocean would draw a greater portion of atmospheric heat into the ocean system, and that land ice melt near Greenland and West Antarctica would generate cold, fresh water flows into the nearby ocean zones and set off localized coo
Ocean would draw a greater portion of atmospheric heat into the
ocean system, and that land ice melt near Greenland and West Antarctica would generate cold, fresh water flows into the nearby ocean zones and set off localized coo
ocean system, and that land ice melt near Greenland and West Antarctica would generate cold, fresh water flows into the nearby
ocean zones and set off localized coo
ocean zones and set off localized cooling.
· A few areas of the globe have not
warmed in recent decades, mainly over some parts of the Southern
Hemisphere oceans and parts of Antarctica.
The team believes the ancient tropical
warming caused large, rapid atmospheric changes at the equator, the intensification of the Pacific monsoon, sea - ice loss in the north Atlantic
Ocean and more atmospheric heat and moisture over Greenland and much of the rest of the Northern
Hemisphere.