Global or
hemispheric warming may also strongly impact Southwest drought indirectly through influences on global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean / atmosphere dynamics.
A 466303 — 29): the results presented here indicate that, despite
hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.»
The stadium wave hypothesizes that the Arctic regional sea ice max / min are out of phase with
the hemispheric warming / cooling periods, with the minima lagging
the hemispheric warming period and occurring in the early half of the hemispheric cooling period.
Judith — you say «The stadium wave hypothesizes that the Arctic regional sea ice max / min are out of phase with
the hemispheric warming / cooling periods, with the minima lagging
the hemispheric warming period and occurring in the early half of the hemispheric cooling period.».
This is
a hemispheric warming rate of approximately 2.0 °C per decade, which is 40 times faster than the 0.05 °C per decade global warming rate since 1850 (and 1998).
Not exact matches
A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent
hemispheric - wide atmospheric
warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter.
As discussed elsewhere on this site, modeling studies indicate that the modest cooling of
hemispheric or global mean temperatures during the 15th - 19th centuries (relative to the
warmer temperatures of the 11th - 14th centuries) appears to have been associated with a combination of lowered solar irradiance and a particularly intense period of explosive volcanic activity.
As alluded to in our post, one important issue is the possibility that changes in El Nino may have significantly offset opposite temperature variations in the extratropics, moderating the influence of the extratropical «Little Ice Age» and «Medieval
Warm Period» on
hemispheric or global mean temperatures (e.g. Cobb et al (2003).
= The idea of a global or
hemispheric «Medieval
Warm Period» that was
warmer than today however, has turned out to be incorrect.
As alluded to in our post, one important issue is the possibility that changes in El Nino may have significantly offset opposite temperature variations in the extratropics, moderating the influence of the extratropical «Little Ice Age» and «Medieval
Warm Period» on
hemispheric or global mean temperatures (e.g. Cobb et al (2003).
This conflicts with the Jones et al. (2001) global land instrumental temperature data (Figure 2.1), and the combined
hemispheric and global land and marine data (Figure 2.7), where clear
warming is not seen until the beginning of the 20th century.
At the
hemispheric - mean scale, the «Little Ice Age» is only a moderate cooling because larger offsetting regional patterns of temperature change (both
warm and cold) tend to cancel in a
hemispheric or global mean.
Like I say, you see a richness of behaviour in the models including in some occasions behaviour that at first sight looks not dissimilar to that highlighted in the observations by the Thompson paper and this on top of the «external control» as we called it in our 2000 paper in Science of the external forcings in a particular model which drives much of the multi-decadal
hemispheric response in these models and which, in terms of the overall global
warming response, is dominated by greenhouse gases.
In contrast, recent (1994 — 2007) regional
warming around Greenland has not surpassed the
hemispheric anomaly.
Using the empirical relationships between Greenland and the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature data, we calculate that if Greenland was to become in phase with the
hemispheric pattern, as it did after 1923, an additional 1.08 — 1.68 C
warming would occur.
Wilson (2007) Matter of divergence: tracking recent
warming at
hemispheric scales using tree - ring data.
Look, I don't claim to know for sure whether the modern Northern
hemispheric temperatures are definitely
warmer than they were during the MWP or not.
Our reconstruction thus supports the notion of relatively
warm hemispheric conditions earlier in themillennium, while cooling following the 14th century could be viewed as the initial onset of the Little Ice Age sensu lato.
As a result of this, when a global or
hemispheric temperature reconstruction is performed, this lack of synchronicity leads to a broad, diffuse
warm bump that is not as pronounced as the current
warming when the
warming is happening with greater synchronicity from place to the next.
Our reconstruction thus supports the notion of relatively
warm hemispheric conditions earlier in the millennium, while cooling following the 14th century could be viewed as the initial onset of the Little Ice Age sensu lato.
The combination wNA + Amazon experiment reflects the northern
hemispheric cooling and Amazon basin
warming that is present in the individual experiments.
The global amplitude of the seasonal cycle globally is 3.5 K (which I think is a
hemispheric average about 10 K of
warming in the NH and -3 K of «
warming» in the SH).
I notice the complete failure of the NIPCC report to show any global or
hemispheric temperature reconstructions apart from the «spaghetti graph» ones which show temperatures currently are more likely
warmer the MWP.
How about: «Previous IPCC reports have discussed # multi-proxy climate reconstructions demonstrating that present - day mean northern
hemispheric temperature is significantly
warmer than during the MWP.
The idea of a global or
hemispheric «Medieval
Warm Period» that was
warmer than today, however, has turned out to be incorrect.
Another paper in Climate Change in 2007 stated: Studies that have looked at
hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban - related trend is an order of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time - scale trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990; Peterson et al., 1999)... Thus, the global land
warming trend discussed is very unlikely to be influenced significantly by increasing urbanization (Parker, 2006).
Is there a global
warming signal in
hemispheric temperature series: a structural time series approach
Ocean / atmosphere teleconnections provide a plausible causative link between
hemispheric - scale
warm temperatures and drought in the Southwest during the medieval period.
Actually, to be pedantic, on a
hemispheric basis it's the Northern Hemisphere that is
warmer than normal just now.
So too, with our modern
warm excursion, the Holocene record would indicate that it IS particularly significant, on a
hemispheric as well as global basis.
However, the evidence is not sufficient to support a conclusion that
hemispheric mean temperatures were as
warm, or the extent of
warm regions as expansive, as those in the 20th century as a whole, during any period in medieval times (Jones et al., 2001; Bradley et al., 2003a, b; Osborn and Briffa, 2006).»
Soon and Baliunas (2003) challenged the conclusion that the 20th century was the
warmest at a
hemispheric average scale.
Several reconstructions exhibit a short - lived maximum just prior to AD 1000 but only one (Moberg et al., 2005) indicates persistent
hemispheric - scale conditions (i.e., during AD 990 to 1050 and AD 1080 to 1120) that were as
warm as those in the 1940s and 50s.
However, even by 1900, reconstructions of
hemispheric temperatures show evidence for a detectible
warming driven by increases in greenhouse gases, particularly relative to slightly reduced CO2 during the Little Ice Age (Abramet al., 2016; Schurer et al., 2013) consistent with attribution of a substantial fraction of the ETCW in temperature reconstructions to greenhouse gas increases (Schurer et al., 2013).