Sentences with phrase «heuristic contributions»

The drop is mostly due to lower statistical and mixed statistical / heuristic contributions (Figure 2), because these methods are generally at least partially based on extrapolation from current / previous conditions whereas modeling contributions are generally not.

We received 3 heuristic contributions (2 from informal polls) and 2 from mixed - methods.

The highest prediction of 6.0 million square kilometers is based on a dynamical model forecast using the US Navy Earth System Model (NESM), whereas the lowest prediction of 3.4 million square kilometers comes from a heuristic contribution.

Not exact matches

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

Lukovich et al. (Centre for Earth Observation Science, U. of Manitoba); 4.6; Heuristic - Dynamics Investigation of dynamical atmospheric contributions in spring to sea ice conditions in fall, based on comparison of 2011 and 2007 stratospheric and surface winds and sea level pressure (SLP) in April and May suggests regional differences in sea ice extent in fall, in a manner consistent with recent studies highlighting the importance of coastal geometry in seasonal interpretations of sea ice cover (Eisenman, 2010).

Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictors.

Untersteiner and Morison (University of Washington); 5.3 Million Square Kilometers; Heuristic Detailed outlook contribution not provided.

As with previous CIS contributions, the 2016 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness / extent, as well as winter surface air temperature, spring ice conditions and the summer temperature forecast; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent time - series into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

Lukovich and Barber; 4.6 million square kilometers; Heuristic The absence of a distinctive transition in spring of 2009, between cyclonic and anti-cyclonic circulation in the stratosphere (characteristic of years with record lows in sea ice extent), suggests that dynamical contributions will contribute to but not accelerate the decline in sea ice extent in September 2009.

The first three boxes depict contributions based on heuristic, statistical or modeling methods.

The regional outlook contributions help shed light on the uncertainties associated with the Pan-Arctic estimates by providing more detail at the regional scale, and were based on numerical models, statistical methods, and heuristic estimates.

In general, the heuristic approaches forecast a mean September extent around 4.1 million km2, whereas the statistical and dynamical modeling approaches both suggest mean September extent near 5.1 million km2, with the dynamical modeling contributions showing a narrower range.

WattsUpWithThat.com (Public Contribution - Poll); 5.0; Heuristic Website devoted to climate and weather polled its readers for the best estimate of 2011 sea ice extent minimum by choosing bracketed values from a web poll (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/27/august-arcus-forecast-poll-what-wi...).

Lukovich et al. (Centre for Earth Observation Science, U. of Manitoba); 4.4 to 4.5; Heuristic - Dynamics The absence of a strong and persistent sea level pressure high over the Beaufort in July together with the absence of spatial homogeneity in the springtime sea ice drift fields suggest that continued sea ice decline will be an artifact of increased temperatures and thermodynamic forcing rather than the considerable dynamical contributions seen in summer of 2007.

WattsUpWithThat.com (Public Contribution - Poll); 5.1; Heuristic Website devoted to climate and weather polled its readers for the best estimate of 2011 sea ice extent minimum by choosing bracketed values from a web poll (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/26/july-arcus-forecast-poll-what-will...).

The heuristic value of the kaleidoscope of ever - changing harmonies and nuances an integrated approach offers, compared to the spurious precision provided by any one perspective, lies in the multiple contributions brought to sense - making.