Sentences with phrase «heuristic forecasts»

The median forecast of heuristic forecasts is 4.0 million square kilometers and the spread is small.

In the Siberian Arctic, heuristic forecasts by Pokrovsky and statistical forecasts by Maslanik et al. predicted opening of the Northern Sea Route, which were on target (Figure 3).

This is consistent with the June statistical and heuristic forecasts submitted by Tivy and Pokrovsky, which also suggest more ice in the southern Beaufort Sea compared to previous years.

For example, in the Beaufort / Chukchi Seas, physical models, statistical models, and heuristic forecasts all agree, whereas in the East Siberian / Laptev Seas there is disagreement between the model (statistical and physical) and the heuristic forecasts.

As the lead time shortens, there is more opportunity for heuristic forecasts based on persistence or observations of the current state of the atmosphere and ocean.

Gudmandsen, Nares Strait Region, Heuristic A heuristic forecast for the timing of break - up in the Nares Strait region.

A heuristic forecast submitted by Gudmandsen predicts a mid-July break - up of the consolidated ice in Nares Strait.

A heuristic forecast for ice conditions in the Lincoln Sea and Nares Strait was submitted by Gudmandsen.

The heuristic forecast, based on current ice conditions and the regional temperature history, predicts open water in Kane Basin and Smith Sound.

Gudmandsen, Nares Strait Region, Heuristic A heuristic forecast for the timing of break - up for the ice arch in Kennedy Channel is the beginning of July.

The heuristic forecast submitted by Howell in June is unchanged; below average concentrations of multi-year ice in the area will facilitate clearing.

August updates for both the heuristic forecast submitted by Howell and the ensemble forecast from a coupled ice - ocean forecast submitted by Zhang are now highlighting the potential for the Northwest Passage to clear.

An observed drift of sea ice out of the Lincoln Sea on 27 June supports Gudmandsen's July heuristic forecast, with expected movement of ice from the Lincoln Sea to begin in early July.

Not exact matches

The highest prediction of 6.0 million square kilometers is based on a dynamical model forecast using the US Navy Earth System Model (NESM), whereas the lowest prediction of 3.4 million square kilometers comes from a heuristic contribution.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice prHeuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice prheuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictors.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice prHeuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice prheuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

As with previous CIS contributions, the 2016 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness / extent, as well as winter surface air temperature, spring ice conditions and the summer temperature forecast; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent time - series into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

Slater, 4.45, Statistical / Heuristic My 50 - day forecast (http://cires.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/) issued on June 6th suggests that 2014 will be near the 3rd lowest rank year on record, which is how I came to derive my estimated extent for this long - lead time.

There I was rewinding to the post wherein you replied to me, beginning with: Brandon, you're making life easy for the silly coolists - I've been watching the models heuristic improvement for 40 years, and I'm still waiting for the C02 doubling sensitivity to converge, and cloud cover forecasting to get real.

Brandon, you're making life easy for the silly coolists - I've been watching the models heuristic improvement for 40 years, and I'm still waiting for the C02 doubling sensitivity to converge, and cloud cover forecasting to get real.

In general, the heuristic approaches forecast a mean September extent around 4.1 million km2, whereas the statistical and dynamical modeling approaches both suggest mean September extent near 5.1 million km2, with the dynamical modeling contributions showing a narrower range.

Heuristic and model forecasts for the Northwest Passage both predict a September 2011 opening and July ice charts from the Canadian Ice Service confirmed an early opening of the shipping route through Hudson Bay.