Sentences with phrase «high climate sensitivity scenarios»

Not exact matches

Just for the sake of illustration, though, here's one scenario where higher Holocene variability could go along with lower climate sensitivity: Suppose that some unknown stabilizing mechanism makes the real world less sensitive to radiative forcing than our current models.

Note that the old GISS model had a climate sensitivity that was a little higher (4.2 ºC for a doubling of CO2) than the best estimate (~ 3ºC) and as stated in previous years, the actual forcings that occurred are not the same as those used in the different scenarios.

My complaint concerns the putative conclusions that the narrator makes concerning climate sensitivity and the implications for the high end IPCC scenarios.

This is presented as a worst - case scenario — what might be expected to happen if a) nothing is done to curb GHG emissions and b) the climate sensitivity is in the higher range Peter Cox and other leading scientists now believe possible.

As stated last year, the Scenario B in that paper is running a little high compared with the actual forcings growth (by about 10 %)(and high compared to A1B), and the old GISS model had a climate sensitivity that was a little higher (4.2 ºC for a doubling of CO2) than the best estimate (~ 3ºC).

Just for the sake of illustration, though, here's one scenario where higher Holocene variability could go along with lower climate sensitivity: Suppose that some unknown stabilizing mechanism makes the real world less sensitive to radiative forcing than our current models.

Since 1990, observed sea level has followed the uppermost uncertainty limit of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR), which was constructed by assuming the highest emission scenario combined with the highest climate sensitivity and adding an ad hoc amount of sea - level rise for «ice sheet uncertainty&raquClimate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR), which was constructed by assuming the highest emission scenario combined with the highest climate sensitivity and adding an ad hoc amount of sea - level rise for «ice sheet uncertainty&raquclimate sensitivity and adding an ad hoc amount of sea - level rise for «ice sheet uncertainty» (1).

Even with a low climate sensitivity, high emissions scenarios will lead to warming exceeding the nominal 2 °C target.

If observations eliminate the possibility that climate sensitivity is 4 or greater, the low probability / high damage scenarios that inflate the societal cost of carbon emissions disappear.

Using the IPCC climate sensitivity of 3.2 C, the CO2 level by 2100 would need to double by 2100, from today's 392 to 784 ppmv, to reach this warming (the high side IPCC «scenario and storyline» A2 is at this level, with estimated warming of 3.4 C above the 1980 - 1999 average, or ~ 3.2 C above today's temperature).

it looks to me from the temperature data that is now in that Climate sensitivity can not be higher than the no feedback scenario, and it could well be less than that.

It appears that the Hansen Scenario B performed fairly well, with an overestimated trend consistent with its estimate of climate sensitivity at what is now considered to be toward the high end of the likely range (although of course, Hansen continues to estimate climate sensitivity at higher levels than most other observers).

The «flaw» of low - ECS climate model studies may not be so much in aerosols, the NASA study suggests, as the effective radiative forcing scenario (with high climate sensitivity) is accompanied with relatively low value for aerosol efficacy:

However, from a purely policy standpoint, it is important to consider all possible scenarios, and a very high climate sensitivity can not yet be ruled out, as Chris Colose explains (via personal communication):

Figure 3: Global mean temperature measurements (black) and projections based on an IPCC scenario with high emissions (A2) for a climate sensitivity parameter of 5 °C (upper red) and 2 °C (upper blue).