Two camps formed, with one arguing that the 1995 - 2005 period of
high cyclone activity was just part of natural variability, and the other arguing that it was due to man - made global warming.
Not exact matches
Geng, Q., and M. Sugi, 2003: Possible change of extratropical
cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols — Study with a
high - resolution AGCM.
NOAA has issued its annual forecast for the hurricane season, along with its now - standard explanation that there is a natural cycle of multidecadal (40 - 60 year) length in the North Atlantic circulation (often referred to as the «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» — see Figure), that is varying the frequency of Atlantic tropical
cyclones, and that the present
high level of
activity is due to a concurrent positive peak in this oscillation.
«Multidecadal variability of Atlantic tropical
cyclone activity is observed to relate to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)-- a mode manifesting primarily in sea surface temperature (SST) in the
high latitudes of the North Atlantic.
The clear seasonality in TCs («hurricane season») with
highest activities during the summer is one of the strongest pieces of empirical evidence that
higher temperatures give more favourable conditions for tropical
cyclones (After all, TCs only form in the warm tropics...).
NOAA also forecasts a
high hurricane
activity for the remainder of the season, and time will show if this season will match the 2004 in terms of number of tropical
cyclones.
Tropical
cyclone activity was low everywhere, except in the Atlantic, where according to NOAA «near - record
high hurricane
activity» was recorded.
The development of a new tropical
cyclone activity index spanning the last 1500 years has enabled the examination of tropical
cyclone climatology at
higher temporal resolution than was previously possible.
Tropical
cyclone activity and intensity increasing Record droughts, floods, heat waves, cold spells,
high tides occurring Unequivocal warming of the climate system observed with very
high confidence that human
activities are to blame Temperature rising even more dramatically in Arctic, threatening ice loss and extinction of species Halving human CO2 emissions immediately might save the planet from catastrophe.
However, we need to be very careful not to mistakenly treat these
higher detection rates as indicating a real trend in
cyclone activity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's newest
High Resolution Atmospheric Model captures the influence of intraseasonal oscillations on tropical
cyclone activity.