For five years I offered US$ 1,000 on the proposition that a new record
high global average temperature would be set by end of year 2016.
For the past four years I had a US$ 1,000 wager that backed the proposition that by end of year 2016 there would be a new record
high global average temperature — and I offered that wager to many thousands of deniers: none of you clowns would accept the wager.
Indeed if one combined that metric with modeling results you could call it «committed delta T» — in effect power plant construction commits us to
higher global average temperature.
«Our findings do not contradict the main conclusions of the IPCC on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability related to climate change... The negative impacts under unmitigated climate change in the future pose substantial risks to most parts of the world, with risks increasing at
higher global average temperatures.»
because we can not predict the specific weather patterns for any particular global average temperature, there is no reason to believe that
a higher global average temperature will have a more damaging distribution than a lower global average temperature.
Not exact matches
About 460 million years ago, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere ranged somewhere between 14 and 22 times the current level, and the
average global temperature was about 5 °C
higher than it is now.
Land and Ocean Combined: The combined
average temperature over
global land and ocean surfaces for August 2014 was the record
highest for the month, at 61.45 °F (16.35 °C), or 1.35 °F (0.75 °C) above the 20th century
average of 60.1 °F (15.6 °C).
The
global average temperature over land and ocean surfaces for January to October 2014 was the
highest on record, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Land Only: The
global land
temperature was the fifth
highest on record for June - August, at 1.64 °F (0.91 °C) above the 20th century
average of 56.9 °F (13.8 °C).
Ocean Only: The August
global sea surface
temperature was 1.17 °F (0.65 °C) above the 20th century
average of 61.4 °F (16.4 °C), the
highest on record for August.
Ocean Only: The June - August
global sea surface
temperature was 1.13 °F (0.63 °C), above the 20th century
average of 61.5 °F (16.4 °C), the
highest for June - August on record.
Land Only: The August
global land
temperature was the second
highest for August on record, behind only 1998, at 1.78 °F (0.99 °C) above the 20th century
average of 56.9 °F (13.8 °C), with a margin of error of + / - 0.43 °F (0.24 °C).
Global surface
temperatures in 2016
averaged 14.8 degrees Celsius (58.64 °F), or 1.3 C (2.3 F)
higher than estimated before the Industrial Revolution ushered in wide use of fossil fuels, the EU body said.
The
global ocean
temperature was a major contributor to the
global average, as its departure from
average for the period was also
highest on record, at 0.63 °C (1.13 °F) above
average.
The
average August
temperature for the
global oceans was record
high for the month, at 0.65 °C (1.17 °F) above the 20th century
average, beating the previous record set in 2005 by 0.08 °C (0.14 °F).
The
average global sea surface
temperature tied with 2010 as the second
highest for January — August in the 135 - year period of record, behind 1998, while the
average land surface
temperature was the fifth
highest.
With records dating back to 1880, the
global temperature across the world's land and ocean surfaces for August 2014 was 0.75 °C (1.35 °F)
higher than the 20th century
average of 15.6 °C (60.1 °F).
«The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said
global land surface
temperatures in January and April were likely the warmest since records began in 1880, at more than 1 degree Celsius
higher than
average for those months.
Granted, while the globally
averaged annual
temperatures for the years since the record warm year of 1998 have not exceeded the 1998 record, the
global temperatures since 1998 have remained
high, ranking as the second, third and fourth warmest years of the last 125 years (and quit possibly the last 2,000 + years).
Annual
average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean
higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual
average global surface
temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial fits.
The strong El Niño is likely playing a role as the
average global temperature of an El Niño year is 0.4 °F
higher than a La Niña year.
Even so, the IPCC estimates above indicate: 1) Total Net Atmospheric Carbon Emissions to 2100 will amount to ~ 2050 PgC (or more) on current Trends, 2) A BAU projected estimate would push CO2 to ~ 952 ppm by 2100 (or more), and 3)
Global average temperature increase / anomaly would be as
high as ~ 6.8 C by 2100
The
global average surface
temperature last year was 0.94 degree Celsius (1.69 degrees Fahrenheit)
higher than the 20th century
average of 13.9 ° C (57 ° F).
At a
global scale, the international scientific community has indicated that
average annual
temperature will at least be 2.5 °F (1.4 °C) and likely 3.6 °F (2.0 °C)
higher in the next century than it was between 1850 - 1950, with ensuing consequences for both human health and livelihoods (IPCC 2013).
In August
global sea surface
temperatures reached record levels — the
average temperature was 1.17 degrees Fahrenheit
higher than the 20th century
average.
The
average global temperature across land surfaces was 1.31 °C (2.36 °F) above the 20th century
average of 5.9 °C (42.6 °F), the fifth
highest November
temperature on record.
For the oceans, the November
global sea surface
temperature was 0.84 °C (1.51 °F) above the 20th century
average of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F), the
highest for November on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.20 °C (0.36 °F).
Separately, the
global land surface
temperature was 1.89 °C (3.40 °F) above
average, the
highest on record for December, surpassing the previous record set in 2006 by 0.48 °C (0.86 °F).
The
highest temperature anomalies (more than 5 °C / 9 °F above the 1981 — 2010
average) were observed across much of northern Eurasia and eastern North America, driving much the
global record warmth.
The June globally
averaged sea surface
temperature was 1.39 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.5 °F — the
highest global ocean
temperature for June in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.05 °F.
July 2016 had the lowest monthly
global temperature departure from
average since August 2015 and tied with August 2015 as the 15th
highest monthly
temperature departure among all months (1,639) on record.
The May globally
averaged sea surface
temperature was 1.37 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.3 °F — the
highest global ocean
temperature for May in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.09 °F.
This is the case from the perspective of daily
highs and lows all the way up to annual
average global temperatures.
Similar to the March — May
global land and ocean surface
temperature, the March — May land surface
temperature was also the fourth
highest three - month departure from
average for any three - month period on record.
This was also the
highest monthly
global land
temperature departure from
average since April 2016.
The April globally
averaged sea surface
temperature was 1.44 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 60.9 °F — the
highest global ocean
temperature for April in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.25 °F and besting 1998, the last time a similar strength El Niño occurred, by 0.43 °F.
The July globally
averaged sea surface
temperature was 1.42 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.5 °F — the
highest global ocean
temperature for July in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.07 °F.
During the final month, the December combined
global land and ocean
average surface
temperature was the
highest on record for any month in the 136 - year record.
Here we have CO2 levels around 400 ppm,
global average temperature about 2 or 3 degrees
higher, and sea levels 25 to 35 meters
higher (think ten story building).
The September globally
averaged sea surface
temperature was 1.33 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.1 °F, tying with 2014 as the second
highest global ocean
temperature for September in the 1880 — 2016 record, behind 2015 by 0.16 °F.
Regions in the
high Arctic are warming at 5 to 8 times the
global average, and are destroying the delicate
temperature balance between the Arctic and the equator that has allowed us to have our familiar, stable climate.
During the final month, the December combined
global land and ocean
average surface
temperature was the third
highest for December in the 137 - year record.
«The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said
global land surface
temperatures in January and April were likely the warmest since records began in 1880, at more than 1 degree Celsius
higher than
average for those months.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising
temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the
global average; decreasing the
temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking
highs, increasing drought and extreme
temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Those extremes will come about more slowly than the rise of mean
temperature, but I have seen zero models that suggests a continued rise of
global average with no rise of
global high.
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and
global mean
temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally
averaged surface
temperature change at
high latitudes exceeds the globally
averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the annual cycle.
Granted, while the globally
averaged annual
temperatures for the years since the record warm year of 1998 have not exceeded the 1998 record, the
global temperatures since 1998 have remained
high, ranking as the second, third and fourth warmest years of the last 125 years (and quit possibly the last 2,000 + years).
With regards to the sun and its impact on climate; consider that solar cycle was at a minimum in 1986, just prior to 1987 and 1988 each establishing new
average annual
high global temperatures.
Would the steady rise after 1000AD imply that the
global average temperature may have been at a fairly stable «
high» until about 1400, rather than dropping off after a short medieval peak?
1997 and 1998 ended up establising new
highs average annual
global temperatures.