Many (including me) believe the reason that both stock prices and real estate prices are currently trading at historically
high valuation ratios is tied to the Feds current «experiment» in holding interest rates at almost zero for half a decade and running....
Not exact matches
Typically, companies with low
valuations fall less than ones with
high ratios.
Right now, for the S&P 500, that
ratio stands at more than 29, its
highest valuation since 2002 and well above its historical norms.
The differences in opinion arise primarily over
valuation and whether its rapid growth can continue to justify a price - to - earnings
ratio that rarely falls below 40 and has peaked as
high as 138.
At a
valuation of $ 19 billion, Snap stock would trade at 47 times sales, not quite as sky
high as the price - to - sales
ratio of 62 that we previously computed.
The
valuation ratios (most commonly enterprise value / EBITDA) on such deals have never been
higher.
[6] Banks were also required to tightly manage new interest - only loans extended at
high loan - to
valuation ratios (LVRs).
Rapid share price growth and
high valuations based on standard metrics, such as price / earnings
ratio or price / sales, characterize a tech bubble.
US large - cap stocks returned more than 9 percent in the first half of 2017, the most since 2013, and although prices are close to all - time
highs, analysts are of the opinion that
valuations are not very expensive for a majority of these stocks, as stronger earnings upped the price - to - earnings
ratio, which has generally remained above average for quite a few years.
While other historically reliable metrics carry a very similar message, Market Cap / GVA has the
highest correlation with actual subsequent 10 - year S&P 500 total returns than any other
valuation ratio we've examined across history.
While there are a number of factors for investors to stay mindful of — including relatively lofty US
valuations (the S&P 500 price - to - earnings
ratio suggests stocks may be expensive relative to historical values), geopolitical tensions around the globe (including the Korean peninsula), and legislative uncertainty (such as the final details and implementation of tax reform legislation)-- healthy corporate earnings have underpinned the market's rally to record
highs.
Trading at the
high end of its historical price to earnings
ratio, PM's
valuation looks a bit stretched.
While we don't believe we're in bubble territory,
valuations for many sectors are
high — with P / E
ratios driven more by price expansion (the «P») than by the more meaningful «E» of earnings.
Grainger's 10 - year average P / E
ratio has been 19.0 (see the dark blue box in the right panel), meaning that the market has tended to value it about 27 %
higher than the historic
valuation of all the companies at 15.0.
It is a financial
ratio used for
valuation: a
higher PE
ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE
ratio.
At the market's actual 2000 peak,
valuations were so
high that even a future price / peak earnings
ratio of 20 could have been expected to result in a nearly zero annualized returns over the following 10 years.
Additionally, sky -
high valuations, which in the U.K. now stand at around six times average earnings and are closer to double that
ratio in the capital, have contributed to the malaise.
A stock certificate trading at
high valuation based on traditional measures such as price earnings
ratio.
Firms of growth stocks all trade at
high valuation levels, meaning they usually have
high price - to - earnings (P / E)
ratios.
We have found price - to - sales to be a useful
valuation metric within the retail industry, and given Amazon's growth comes largely at the expense of traditional retailers, we believed Amazon should be priced at a
higher ratio of sales than its competition.
The chart below provides some insight into S&P 500
valuations, breaking price / revenue
ratios into ten deciles from
highest to lowest multiples.
That is because Southern's average
valuation over the past 10 years has been P / E = 16.4, which is
higher than the
ratio of 15 used in the first step.
Stocks with attractive
valuation ratios receive
higher allocations, and both trailing and forward price - earnings
valuation ratios are considered when determining allocations.
It usually does, and longer - term measures like the Q -
ratio and CAPE10 showed that
valuations at the peak were severely
high.
However, it also exhibited unintended tilts toward more expensive
valuations (
higher price - to - book and
high price - to - sales
ratios).
Higher yields signal a lower
valuation, though other measures, such as the price - earnings
ratio, should also be considered.
Since one common
valuation metric is EV / EBITDA, a
higher numerator will make the stock seem more expensive - that is the EV / EBITDA
ratio will seem
higher when using excess cash as opposed to cash.
As a result, a
high P / B
ratio would not be necessarily a premium
valuation, and conversely, a low P / B
ratio would not be automatically be a discount
valuation.
This is a
high valuation, especially since the stock has had an average price - to - earnings
ratio of 17.9 in the past 10 years.
At 28.93, the «Shiller P / E
ratio», which looks at company
valuations over a longer - term, 10 - year period and adjusts for inflation, is at the
highest level EVER, except for two occasions again... 2000 crash and do not want to say the 1929 crash.
Some investors are ignoring the warning signs from these
valuation ratios, since the bull market has continued
higher even though the measures have told much the same story for some time.
Investors still cite the low costs of ETFs, but with the S&P 500 trading at a P / E
ratio of 21x of
higher, and earnings growth remaining persistently low, Narhi and Barr don't think equity
valuations are worth the risk.
Cardinal's 10 - year average P / E
ratio has been 16 instead of 15, meaning that the market has tended to value CAH a little
higher than its historic
valuation of all the companies.
This
valuation looks inexpensive on an absolute basis, and especially when we factor in the
high earnings growth expectations: With a PE multiple of 15.6 and an expected EPS growth rate of 21 % Lowe's trades at a PEG
ratio of just 0.74.
Overall, we are looking for reasonable payout
ratios, and leverage metrics that are not too
high, as well as
valuation metrics that are in - line with comparable companies.
Growth is defined based on fast growth (
high growth rates for earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow) and
high valuations (
high price - earnings
ratios and low dividend yields).
Value investors like to sort stocks by trailing P / E
ratios and focus only on the lowest P / E quartile as they believe that stocks that have low
valuations in relation to trailing earnings, on average, outperform
high P / E stocks.
While other historically reliable metrics carry a very similar message, Market Cap / GVA has the
highest correlation with actual subsequent 10 - year S&P 500 total returns than any other
valuation ratio we've examined across history.
When this happens (all business cycles eventually do come to an end) we'll be left with double
valuation headwinds: falling earnings forcing
high valuation multiples
higher and
higher stock / bond relative PE
ratios.
I also worry about markets» headline
valuation ratios, which keep marching
higher, and question if they're priced to reflect a growth renaissance, or simply fool's gold.
On balance, a
valuation based simply on current metrics seems neither too harsh nor too optimistic — there are still plenty of
higher TV / radio M&A multiples to reference, but I think a 12 P / E and a 2.0 P / S
ratio (based on a 21.8 % operating profit margin) are pretty neutral values to apply.
The MCTWI is a way to provide a more stable and «true»
valuation of the stock market by adjusting for overly
high or low P / E
ratios.
Given that stock
valuations are often viewed through the lenses of EPS and the related price - earnings
ratio,
higher EPS justifies (and can lead to) a rising share price.
Based on the mathematics behind this
valuation reference, I believe it is only rational to pay a
higher P / E
ratio when you are absolutely confident that the company's future earnings growth will be strong.
However, there are a few companies with earnings growth rates above 15 % where the orange earnings
valuation reference line will be drawn at a
higher P / E
ratio, and one REIT example where I will be presenting the more appropriate price to funds from operations (FFO).
Trading at the
high end of its historical price to earnings
ratio, PM's
valuation looks a bit stretched.
With the steep drop in earnings expected for 2017,
valuation based on the PE
ratio is near historical
highs at 25 times earnings.
The P / E
ratio 15
valuation reference is a strong guide for average companies; However, it is rational to pay a
higher valuation for
higher growing businesses.
Higher P / E
ratios eventually gave way to sound
valuation.
Sure, there's lots of companies & sectors which clearly deserve a variety of different
valuation approaches,
ratios & metrics — but on the other hand, the same operating margin and / or earnings growth rate (for example) surely doesn't deserve a ridiculously
higher multiple in one sector vs. another.